« Shea It Ain't So, Bernie. Shea It Ain't So. | Main | Best Seasons By Yankees Pitchers »
January 08, 2007
Ben Badler On Rico Bergman
Ben Badler offers an interesting look on the value of the Yankees new first baseman against RH-pitchers. As Ben writes:
The Yankees already have a potent offense that scored a league-leading 930 runs last year, and they didn’t lose anyone who played significantly last season. Considering all of that, Cashman made a shrewd move signing Doug. The Yankees don’t need any more run scoring to be successful; what they need is run prevention. Hitting and pitching are the most valuable commodities in baseball, but defense is highly undervalued in the current market. Hitting and pitching are more important than defense, but there is a significant market inefficiency in terms of the dollars being paid for defense, partly because defense is so difficult to accurately quantify. Rather than spend another $6.5 million for an 800 OPS first baseman (Hillenbrand’s projected 2007 using regression calculations), Cashman saved the Yankees $5 million by signing a 740 OPS first baseman who can play significantly better defense, has a comparable on-base percentage and brings the compound-interest virtue of taking more pitches per plate appearance.
I hope that he is right.
Update, 1/8/07 4:27 pm ET -
I was just looking at David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range for First Basemen in 2006. It says that Rico Bergman turned 6 more balls into outs than expected last year. That's the same as Andy Phillips in 2006. Then again, Rico Bergman did have a bad back, no? And, in any event, while the numbers suggest Rico was not all that great last year, Bergman is still light-years better than Giambi in the field.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 8, 2007 01:36 PM
Comments
I could buy this argument if Minky played shortstop. I don't see how there are THAT many runs to be saved at first base.
Posted by: DFLNJ ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 8, 2007 02:40 PM
DFLNJ is absolutely right, and it's not 2001 anymore. Doug is not the defender he once was, and he has a hard time staying healthy.
Posted by: baileywalk at January 8, 2007 03:17 PM
In a perfect world, Phelps will rake in spring training and show that he can play at least passable defense. I would imagine, though, that he's only played first a handful of times for a reason.
Posted by: brockdc at January 8, 2007 03:51 PM
You never know. Maybe Damon's shoulder cranks up and they have to move him to 1B and then Melky plays CF? Stranger things have happened...
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at January 8, 2007 03:55 PM
You never know. Maybe Damon's shoulder cranks up and they have to move him to 1B and then Melky plays CF? Stranger things have happened...
============
On a related note, was Matsui even consulted on a potential move to 1b?
Posted by: Raf at January 8, 2007 04:06 PM
Matsui playing first makes far too much sense for it not to have been broached already. Then, you'd have Melky playing full time and K.T. as your fourth outfielder - both at league minimum.
Big assumption, but my guess is that Matsui wasn't terribly enthusiastic about the possible move, and hence, the issue wasn't pressed.
Posted by: brockdc at January 8, 2007 04:22 PM
Don't forget that Godzilla throws right-handed whereas Damon is a lefty.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at January 8, 2007 11:38 PM
Don't forget that Godzilla throws right-handed whereas Damon is a lefty.
=========
In the grand scheme of things, it really isn't that big a deal; there are plenty of right-handed players that have handled 1b.
Posted by: Raf at January 8, 2007 11:43 PM