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What ever former Yankee pitchers have done in previous years at the age of 21 or younger has absolutely zero bearing on what Phil Hughes will do in his age 21 or younger season.

It is silly to even suggest that.

I don't think it is wrong to look at history to see how others in similar situations have fared. Past performance can't predict the future, but it can help inform us; and it tells me not to rush Hughes. If he's ready for the majors, fine, but don't demand he throw 200 innings in 2007.

What you discovered makes sense to me, Steve. Given that Hughes hasn't pitched in triple A, it would be impressive if he pitched in the majors at all this year. For him to pitch in the majors AND be a better-than-average starting pitcher would be remarkable indeed.

Of course if/when he makes it up here, he's going to take his lumps; don't think it's fair to expect him to be an ace out the box.

You've piqued my curiosity; can you extend the search to all 21 year old pitchers instead of just those who've pitched for the Yanks? I think we may get a clearer picture.

If you use 162 IP in a season as a cut-off, in the last 46 years, there have been 34 times where a pitcher age 21 or younger has posted 10+ RSAA in a season.

Gooden was the best - 58 RSAA in 1985 - and Storm Dvais is the bottom of the 34 - with 10 RSAA in 1983.

The list is full of burnouts - Mark Fidrych, Britt Burns, Dave Rozema, Gary Nolan, Wayne Simpson, Rick Ankiel, Steve Avery, Don Gullett, Kerry Wood, etc.

The only really "great names" in the 34 are Bert Blyleven and Catfish Hunter.

Both Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez had never pitched above AA before heading to the majors and did just fine this year. Verlander won the Rookie of the Year award (and helped his team to the World Series and pitched well against us in the playoffs) and Sanchez had a good year, pitched a no-hitter, and shut out the Yankees for his first big-league win.

The difference between AA and AAA isn't great. It's fine with me if the Yankees want to play it by the cards and have Hughes throw some AAA innings before coming to the team, but I certainly don't think he would be overwhelmed pitching with the team out of spring training. He's going to have his ups and downs no matter what he does.

I have little doubt that he can outperform what Wright and Randy did this year, and exceed Karstens' and Rasner's results (which weren't all that bad).

Justin Verlander was 23 last year and Sanchez was 22. They were not 20, turning 21 during the season, like Hughes will be in 2007.

Thanks for running the numbers, Steve (I just looked them up myself).

IMO, I think we're focusing too much on age. Felix Hernandez is 20, coming up @ 19. Scott Kazmir is 22, he came up @ 20. Clemens came up @ 21. Nolan Ryan came up @ 19

I think it's a bit unfair to expect him to dominate his first season in the majors, but if he has his ERA around league average, and builds on that in subsequent seasons, he will be fine.

But, that's the point Raf.

Many are saying that it's OK if the Yankees have holes in their rotation - because, around June, Hughes will be here to save the day. And, how many 21 year olds end up saving the day?

This is why I think anyone who believes this is blowing smoke.

Hughes may end up being a great major league pitcher. But, the odds of him helping the Yankees in 2007 are against him - based on history.

Many are saying that it's OK if the Yankees have holes in their rotation - because, around June, Hughes will be here to save the day. And, how many 21 year olds end up saving the day?
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On the flip side, do the Yanks keep bringing in pitchers like Al Leiter, Sidney Ponson, Tim Redding, Darrell May, etc?

I would rather have Hughes than those guys. He doesn't need to have a 10+ RSAA seaon (would be nice, though), he needs to be able to give a quality start every time he goes out there.

Age is irrelevant; the guys mentioned before were experienced ML veterans and it didn't do them a lick of good.

And if you're using June as a criteria, we have to re-run the numbers as 162IP seems a bit high. Maybe 100 IP (20 starts, 5 innings per).

Looking at my CBE ('04 edition) we have everyone from HoF'ers to burnouts. Which tells me what Hughes can go in either direction. Come to think of it, you can say that about any pitcher in the league.

There has to be a middle ground option between the green Hughes and the burnt Posnons, no? Can it only be one extreme or the other?

There has to be a middle ground option between the green Hughes and the burnt Posnons, no?
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of course there is. But given that the Yanks have been bringing in a lot of burnt pitchers, you may as well give Hughes or Kartsens or anyone else on the farm a chance (provided they're ready), lest they catch lightning in a bottle with a Chacon or a Small or a Rasner.

He wasn't a starting pitcher, but K-Rod came up at 20 -- having never pitched in the big leagues -- and had a huge impact on the playoffs. And then at 21 put up a stellar year as a setup man (50 hits/95 SO in 86 IP).

Also Matt Cain had an excellent year at just 21. He put up great numbers in a short stint at 20, and then again in his first full year at 21. 190 IP, only 157 hits, 87/179 BB/K.

Didn't save San Fran's season, but I don't think much could have.

Gil Patterson was not rushed, he was ML ready. He was a stubborn mule who wanted to throw his changeup instead of his awesome fastball. He suffered a massive tear in his rotator cuff. End of story.