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December 05, 2006

Joined At The Bad Elbow?

I just noticed how, to date, Andy Pettitte's relative career pitching results match up to that of John Smoltz, at the same age. Stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

AndySmoltz.jpg

It was just about at this point in his career that Smoltz made the move to closer - which he did for 3 full seasons before returning to starting (again) for the last 2 years.

Regardless of his role, and his elbow, Smoltz has been an effective pitcher since his 34th birthday. Did some "time off" as a closer help ensure this long life? It's possible.

Maybe this is why Pettitte was thinking about taking some time off now - to see if that might have improved his chances at a longer career, by looking at the big picture rather than just the next one frame?

In any event, it is interesting to see that Pettitte matches Smoltz (at the same age). Some like to discount Pettitte's career by saying he was an average pitcher who got lots of wins because of the great teams behind him. Perhaps now, by seeing the Smoltz-comp, those same folks will look past the win totals and the winning percentage marks and see that, boiled down to his relative pitching results, Pettitte has been just as good, stride for stride through age 34, as someone who many feel is a Cooperstown Candidate (Smoltz).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at December 5, 2006 10:44 PM

Comments

I haven't paid to get the access to the same statistical comparisons, but I would need a little perspective on what a significant difference is with these metrics. I mean, Smoltz is better in all but one category, but is a 0.20 difference in ERA mean something, or nothing? I do know that the 10 run difference in RSAA means that over an entire career, Smoltz has given his teams one more win than Pettitte, which I guess isn't that much. In fact, if you account for the fact that Smoltz has pitched about half a season (100 IP) more than Pettitte, and so if the RSAA is a raw number, and you gave Pettitte another 100 innings, they could be equal?

In a related (and free!) search, Pettitte's similarity rating from baseball-reference.com shows that the pitcher most similar to Pettitte at age 34 is... Mike Mussina. Lefty Gomez and Warrren Spahn are the Hall of Famers in the top 10, while Kevin Brown and Doc Gooden also make appearances.

This being said, Pettitte has put up some pretty average years (1999) and some pretty solid years (2005). I wouldn't put him in the hall, but he deserves recognition somewhere for a solid career. That is, unless he had a little chemical help via his pal Roger...

Posted by: mehmattski [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 5, 2006 11:50 PM

You think Pettitte is contemplating taking some time off because of Smoltz' experience and will come back at a later point?

I'm naive, but is that meant to be tongue in cheek? If not, it sounds to me you're bordering on "who shot Kennedy" territory. There's not always an ulterior motive to someone's actions or lack of action.

Posted by: RICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 08:52 AM

FWIW, a .17 difference in ERA, in the chart, means that Pettitte's ERA, compared to the league, was just 1/6th of a run higher, over 9 innings, than Smoltz was compared to the league. It means they are very close in terms of their ERA compared to the league average.

AS far as the RSAA difference, when you do RSAA/IP, it's even closer.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 09:04 AM

~~You think Pettitte is contemplating taking some time off because of Smoltz' experience and will come back at a later point? I'm naive, but is that meant to be tongue in cheek? If not, it sounds to me you're bordering on "who shot Kennedy" territory. There's not always an ulterior motive to someone's actions or lack of action.~~

Pure speculation on my part. Shame on me, I guess.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 09:07 AM

It may not be a bad idea to take a year off, Steve. Say Andy gets his elbow cleaned out and has what ever else he needs done at the same time. Then let everything heal up and you'll get another 3-4 years, possibly at $10 mil per year.

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 09:12 AM

Steve,

No reason to be ashamed of your speculation.

I don't always agree with your thoughts but the reason I keep reading is your passion. I think you spend more time pondering Yankee-related issues more than anyone, including people whose real life job it is to do so.

Posted by: RICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 10:19 AM

Hey Steve, If the Yanks need a right-handed 1B then why don't they go after Mike Sweeney? They can use him as DH, and use Andy Phillips for the late innings. Sweeney and Giambi can alternate fielding duties. I know Sweeney is DL prone, but it would also strengthen our bench.

Posted by: Garcia [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 10:21 AM

~~~I think you spend more time pondering Yankee-related issues more than anyone, including people whose real life job it is to do so.~~~

Crap! Now I know who "RICH" is! You're my wife! She says those *exact* words to me at least 3 times a month. LOL.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 10:34 AM

Garcia - this is funny. Last year, to the day, Cashman said: "What we need for this team is to be more flexible. We don't need another station-to-station guy that's power only (and) can't run."

See: http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2005/12/cashman_no_need.html

So, gotta pass on Sweeney - 'tho he's a really nice guy too.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 10:37 AM

Steve - I don't know of too many first basemen, backup or starter, who wouldn't qualify as a station-to-station guy. We are talking about a first basemen, right?

Posted by: Garcia [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 11:05 AM

True. But, Sweeney is really big and slow - even for a 1B/DH type.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 11:20 AM

If Sweeney and Giambi were in a foot race, would anyone win?

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 12:37 PM

Would anyone finish?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 12:47 PM

That is, unless he had a little chemical help via his pal Roger...
------

This is why the media needs to show just a little responsibility. That report was shot down by the DA on the case immediately, and Grimsley came out to say that "never in a million years" did he think that Andy or Roger would ever do steroids.

But Andy will have to hear this for the rest of his career. Way to go, media. And you wonder why everyone hates you and no one trusts you.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 02:06 PM

But Andy will have to hear this for the rest of his career. Way to go, media. And you wonder why everyone hates you and no one trusts you.
=========
Don't blame the media, blame the sheep that refuses to think on their own.

As for Pettitte taking a year off, he wouldn't be the first to do so. May as well

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 02:26 PM

Don't blame the media, blame the sheep that refuses to think on their own.
----------

That paper reported something they knew to be shaky at best -- just to create buzz for themselves. That's unethical.

You can't guarantee that a retraction is going to reach everyone the original false story did. Which is why it's better to assure something is true before you print it.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 03:00 PM

This whole steroids scandal was nothing more than a modern-day witch-hunt. Has there really been any discussion about steroids outside of talking points and rhetoric?

With that story, the media was catering to their public. Such is the state of affairs today, unfortunately.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 6, 2006 04:17 PM

~~~I think you spend more time pondering Yankee-related issues more than anyone, including people whose real life job it is to do so.~~~
====================

Unfortunately, instead of worrying about discussing a contract for Lilly, whether or not any of you think we should've gotten him, B-Cash was busy "tossing the football in his room."
It is a shame that the Red Sox have a GM who grew up a Sox fan and has a passion for what he does while we have a GM who worries about saving money that isnt his and would've loved to be the GM of the Red Sox in order to win their first WS in 80+ years.

Posted by: Chewbacca [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 7, 2006 01:15 AM