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December 31, 2006

December 2006 Survey Question

I'm going to try and do at least one survey question a month here, starting with this one. Please mention this survey to all your Yankees fans friends. I'm interested in seeing what Yankees fans think on this one. And, of course, feel free to leave comments in the comment section of this entry. This survey deals with playoff losses in the "Torre Era" (hence, Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS is not included).

Update, 1/4/07: This poll is now closed. Game 7 of the 2001 World Series gets the nod. To see the results, click on the thumbnail below:

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:09 PM | Comments (18)

Darrell Rasner - The New Ramiro Mendoza?

Once the Randy Johnson trade is done, the Yankees 2007 starting rotation, for the moment, will appear as follows:

Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Igawa and "X" -

where "X" will be Pavano, Rasner, Karstens or someone else (Clemens)?

Some seasons, the 5th starter does not really come into play until the month of May. However, in 2007, the Yankees will need a 5th starter at least 3 times in the month of April.

Of the four candidates above, I feel, at this moment, that it will be "someone else" for the 5th slot - with the answer coming some time in the next seven weeks.

And, the more and more that I look at the options that are out there, the more I feel that it will be Roger Clemens - which pushes Igawa to the 5th slot of the rotation.

Considering the age and injury history between Mussina and Clemens, and to an extent Pettitte as well, having someone like Darrell Rasner in the bullpen, where he can spot start, probably should be part of the Yankees plan next year.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:19 AM | Comments (13)

Happy New Year!

I would like to wish all the readers of WasWatching.com a very happy and healthy new year. And, may all your resolutions for 2007 come true!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:56 AM | Comments (5)

Forget The Bopper, See The Big Whiff

With yesterday's thoughts still in my head, I decided to look at the "Torre Yankees" to see who were the big whiffers on each squad. To see the results, click on the thumbnail below.

Seeing these results, I now wonder - come October, does it make sense to have Giambi and A-Rod at least 4 batters apart (in the line-up) to help ensure against them whiffing the Yankees out of a chance to score a run?

For a second, I wondered if that was what Torre was trying to do in Game 4 of the ALDS this year. Then I remembered that Giambi didn't even play in that game (when A-Rod batted 8th).

I guess if I was a beat reporter, Torre would yell at me too. (Remember, Joe was upset because the writers were more interested in Alex batting 8th that day than the fact that Giambi was not playing at all.)

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:31 AM | Comments (4)

December 30, 2006

October Contact: Old Ghosts and New Hopes

Nate Silver and Dayn Perry conducted a study, entitled “Why Doesn't Billy Beane's S*** Work in the Playoffs?,” which can be found in the book "Baseball Between The Numbers" (released earlier this year by the Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts) that finds three "fundamental and direct relationship" variables for a baseball team’s post-season success.

The three variables for post-season success stated in the study are:

• Closer's performance
• Pitcher strikeout rate
• Defense

The analysis for this study was concluded prior to the 2006 World Series. Nonetheless, hindsight now affords us an opportunity to determine if this year’s eventual World Champion St. Louis Cardinals squad had these three variables.

Did the Cardinals have a standout closer? Check.

Whereas the Cards’ regular season closer, Jason Isringhausen, was about a league-average performer last season (in terms of his relative pitching performance), Adam Wainwright was a better overall hurler than Isringhausen and Adam’s “stuff” was electric in this post-season. Thanks to Wainwright replacing Isringhausen as the Redbirds’ closer this October, St. Louis gets a passing grade here for having a standout pitcher to close their contests.

Did the Cardinals staff strikeout batters at a high rate? Ah, well, no and, yet, actually yes. So, this is a check, albeit requiring some qualification, as well.

Thanks to pitchers like Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, Mark Mulder, and Sidney Ponson getting work for the Cards this year, St. Louis’ overall team strikeout per 9 innings pitched rate (as compared to the league average) was poor. However, if you examine a large slice of the cadre of pitchers that the Cardinals featured in the post-season – specifically Tyler Johnson, the aforementioned Wainwright, Josh Kinney, Anthony Reyes, and Chris Carpenter – you will see that (outside of Suppan and Weaver) St. Louis often relied on above-average strikeout pitchers to do some of the heavy lifting for them in this post-season.

OK, maybe this is not a hard “yes” for a “check.” But, at the worst, it’s a “push” that allows for a passing grade in this category.

Lastly, did the Cardinals have a good defense in 2006? Check, check, and more checks.

Yes, the team St. Louis featured defensively in the field was leather-savvy last year. According to the plus/minus system developed by Baseball Information Systems (and as featured in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007) the Cardinals had the second best overall team defense in the National League last season – and, in all of baseball, only the Padres, Blue Jays, and Mariners were better than St. Louis’ overall team defense.

Therefore, in summary, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals were another feather in the cap for the Silver/Perry theory regarding these three variables for post-season success.

This confirmation leads me to wonder how one can combat this three-headed watchdog of closer/whiffs/and defense that guards the entrance to the land of World Series rings.

If a team you are facing has a dominant closer, you can do one of four things.

First, you could ensure that you have a large lead late in every game – making the other team’s stud closer obsolete. But, that is certainly easier said than done. Or, if you are the Jeff Gillooly-type then you could contract someone to deliver said closer a box of canolis that are laced with Exlax before each game. However, an astute team trainer armed with Imodium would be able to counter-attack that plan. Another alternative would be to pray to a higher power to deliver a form of divine intervention at a key moment against a tough closer – say, like, throwing away a Damian Miller bunt at the wrong time. Still, the baseball gods can be fickle at times and they only seem to answer the prayers of the winning teams. Lastly, there is the fourth option – which is to just resign yourself to the fact that there’s not much you can do when the other team in the post-season has a great closer. This is the "Two tears in a bucket, mother [bleep] it" approach. And, it probably is the most practical stance one can assume against this variable.

Moving along, if a post-season opponent has great defensive ability, what can you do to negate this strength?

Outside of hitting every pitch over the wall for a homerun or stationing snipers in the scoreboard and/or landmines on the field of play, there is little a team can do to prevent great plays from being turned against them in the post-season. Just as it was the case with coping with a great closer, here, you have to play the game and allow the ball to bounce – and if you are lucky then you might get the bear before it gets you.

Finally, what can a team do in the post-season to combat pitchers with above-average ability to produce strikeouts?

Conventional wisdom suggests that having as many high-contact batters in your line-up as possible would be a prophylactic method to neutralize strikeout pitchers that you may face in the playoffs. Then again, is this scheme well-founded and applicable? To be candid, I was not sure. For that reason, I decided to look for help.

First, I turned to Google. Unfortunately, after several hours of searching I was unable to find any studies published on-line which addressed this question. Next, I reached out to David Pinto of BaseballMusings.com – hoping that the records in his Day By Day Database (which contains batter versus pitcher match-ups that date back to 2000) may be able to assist with the question of “If hitters, for the most part, control the ride on batted ball types over pitchers and their tendencies, how does it work for contact hitters and strikeout pitchers? Who wins that battle - in the non-batted ball contest?” And, garnering much appreciation from me, David was able to share the following discovery.

Using his Day By Day Database, Pinto selected 20 low-strikeout hitters and 20 high-strikeout pitchers. From this population, Pinto calculated strikeout percentages (100*K/PA) for various combinations:

From these findings, David Pinto concluded that “The best” contact hitters versus “the best” strikeout-pitchers “comparison resulted in 403 K in 3438 plate appearances.” And, that “It certainly appears that the contact hitters ‘win’ the battle against the strikeout pitchers.”

This knowledge in hand, it appears there is something that teams can do in the post-season to offset one of the key variables for post-season success (as identified by Silver Perry). Having a line-up constructed with batters who offer good contact skills seems to be a plus come October.

Right about now, those who are familiar with the study of Run Expectancy are probably throwing up their arms (or at least making a face) at the suggestion that having contact hitters matter in the post-season since Run Expectancy tables tells us that "going down on strikes" is merely another vanilla form of being retired - and that the "K" was no better or worse, for the most part, than any other way of being retired as a batter.

To that faction, I would offer the reminder that strikeout-pitchers are much less reliant upon their defense to convert batted balls into outs. This is their success edge. And, in part, this is how strikeout-pitchers somewhat mitigate the “luck” factor that comes into play during short-series outcomes. Further, I would ask the question: If pitchers with better than average strikeout frequencies are beneficial towards post-season success then why not would batters who can defuse that pitching skill be as advantageous or greater?

In the spirit of full-disclosure, I would be remiss if I did not share that this concept of the benefits of having a contact-oriented offensive in the post-season has been an item on my mind since the 2004 season. And, my sundry approaches (shared on-line) to prove this theory during this time were not met with open arms – either because my presentations were lacking and/or it was just something that people did not want to consider.

As a Yankees fan, perhaps the 2003 World Series was the reason why the contact issue began to vex me? (And this led to me starting to try to connect the dots?) Specifically, I want to point to Game 4 of that Series – which was a key game and turning point in that Fall Classic.

In that Game 4, in the top of the 2nd inning, Bernie Williams, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada each singled for the Yankees to load the bases with no outs. The next three hitters to follow were Karim Garcia, Aaron Boone and Roger Clemens. Karim Garcia struck out swinging. Boone later had a sacrifice fly and Clemens grounded out to end the inning. Clearly, the critical malfunction for the Yankees here was Karim Garcia’s lack of production via his out in the inning. With the pitcher due up third, in this spot, it is essential for Garcia to make contact to try and drive in a run, even if it comes via an out.

Further, in the top of the 11th inning, the Yankees loaded the bases with one out (when the game score was tied at three). Aaron Boone was at the plate with seldom used back-up catcher John Flaherty on deck. In a spot similar to the one Karim Garcia had in the 2nd, where contact was a must, Boone struck out swinging. Flaherty later popped up to end the inning and the Yankees did not score. Once again, this was an unproductive out for the Yankees in a significant moment.

But, that was then and this is now. Given what Nate Silver and Dayn Perry have since found to be true in regard to strikeout-pitchers helping towards success in October – along with the recent statistics graciously provided by David Pinto that suggest contact-hitters can remedy strikeout-pitchers – perhaps the time has come to consider the importance of avoiding strikeouts, on offense, with respect to post-season success?

At the least, it’s less messy than the Exlax, snipers and landmines route.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:59 PM | Comments (17)

Wasting Number Ones

From the Toronto Sun -

Tim Wilken, former Jays scouting director, named scout of the year at the winter meetings had plenty of bouquets and barbs in his speech.

He gave commissioner Bud Selig a shot for his comment about scouts giving large signing bonuses to players "who don't work out" saying "Buck O'Neill should have been elected to Cooperstown while he was alive."

He jabbed former Major League Baseball CEO Sandy Alderson for instituting a slot money policy for draft picks.

And after thanking everyone with the Jays from Paul Beeston and Bobby Mattick, to Pat Gillick and Howard Starkman to Charlie Wilson he summed up his Jays days.

"We won two World Series, five AL East titles, were organization of the year twice. Seven of 12 years we produced the most major-leaguers and had 15 straight first-rounders make it," Wilken told the crowded ball room. "With respect to the Yankees, we handled them better from 1983-94 than anyone.

"We also had six scouts of the year, a batting champ, an MVP, six Gold Glove winners, three Cy Young Award winners. I still don't understand why you wouldn't want to live in a beautiful city like Toronto full time."

The final line is directed to Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi.

After 25 years with the Blue Jays, Wilken spent two years with the Devil Rays and has been with the Cubs since 2005. Besides the shots that he takes at the Jays here, which are interesting, the thing that caught my eye was the fact that Toronto had 15 straight first-rounders make it to the show.

What's the Yankees record for most in a row, ever? It's probably something like seven straight - with the picks from 1966 through 1972 making it.

Maybe the Yankees should have hired Wilken when the Jays cut him loose?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:23 AM | Comments (7)

December 29, 2006

Champions of the Heart VHS

I was jonesing for some good Yankees fan-candy tonight. So, I broke out the MSG Network produced VHS tape that documented the Yankees 1999 season. It's entitled Champions of the Heart. Watching it, and reliving the 1999 season, three things dawned on me:

1. MSG did a nice job in producing these year-end summaries. It was just about this time last year that I had the itch to watch The Season Of Their Lives - also by MSG for VHS. (I guess that I have some sort of Yankees Fan Pon'far thing that hits me each season right around New Years?) It's a shame that the YES Network cannot come out with something at year end that chronicles the season, month by month, moment by moment, etc. It would sell - of this I have no doubt.

2. There were many more blocks of empty blue seats to been seen in Yankees Stadium highlights from 1999 than there are from today. Ah, the good ol' days of averaging 35,000-40,000 fans per game (as opposed to averaging 50,000+ per home game).

3. Watching the big clips from 1999, I noticed the emotional displays - during both good and bad times - in the faces and body movements of Yankees players like Paul O'Neill, Roger Clemens, Chad Curtis, El Duque Hernandez, Joe Girardi, Andy Pettitte, Tino Martinez, David Cone, and Jim Leyritz. You don't see much of that on the Yankees now, or in the last three years or so. As a fan, I miss seeing that fire.

After watching this tape tonight, I'm ready for some Yankees baseball now. Is it really just less than 7 weeks until Pitchers and Catchers report?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:58 PM | Comments (6)

One Thing To Remember About The Johnson Trade

The Daily News is reporting that the Yankees should be able to deal Randy Johnson away before next week. And, when this happens, many Yankees fans will credit Brian Cashman for being smart with this move.

However, Yankees fans should remember that it was Cashman who, in the end, gave up Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, Randy Choate, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro and $41 million to get Randy Johnson here in the first place.

Therefore, with a trade of Randy Johnson now, Brian Cashman is not saving the day for the Yankees - more so, he's just trying to correct a huge mistake that he made in the first place.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:08 AM | Comments (36)

December 28, 2006

Unlucky Unit?

David Gassko answers my question from four weeks ago.

Doesn't matter to me. I still think Johnson is a risk for 2007 and would be addition by subtraction for the clubhouse.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:53 PM | Comments (16)

Murcer To Have Brain Surgery

From the AP -

Former New York Yankees star Bobby Murcer was set to have surgery Thursday to remove a brain tumor, the Daily News reported.

The 60-year-old Murcer, now a Yankees broadcaster, was scheduled to undergo surgery in Houston. He had been having headaches and feeling a loss of energy lately, and the tumor was discovered following an MRI on Christmas Eve, the newspaper reported Thursday.

"I'm feeling OK and we're just going to have to see what this surgery will bring," Murcer told the Daily News by phone Wednesday night. "I'm hopeful that everything will turn out OK and I'm thankful to have so many friends who are rooting for me."

Murcer was to be treated at the MD Anderson Hospital in Houston, one of the top cancer facilities in the nation, the newspaper said.

This is the type of news that I hate finding when I wake-up in the morning. In some ways, Bobby Murcer, in his retirement from active play, has become, to Yankees-baseball, what Tommy Lasorda is to the Dodgers and Ron Santo is to the Cubs. He's a guy who loves the organization, is proud to be a part of its history, is not shy to promote that love and pride.

I featured Bobby Murcer, the player, in my book - The Baseball Same Game - and here is part of what I wrote:

Murcer was an icon in the New York sports scene in the 1970’s. During this time he was also one of the best batters in the game. For the decade of the ‘70’s, Bobby Murcer is among the top ten (of all major leaguers) in Games Played, At Bats, Hits, Runs Scored, Total Bases, Walks and Runs Batted In. During his career, Bobby was selected to the All-Star team five times.

Despite all this, when I think of Bobby Murcer I think of “the trade.” On October 22, 1974, the Yankees traded Murcer to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for Bobby Bonds. It was reported as the first time that two players who made $100,000 a year were traded one-for-one for each other. In New York, Yankee fans were very upset that their favorite had been sent away. One of my best friends, who was 12-years-old at the time of the trade, has told me repeatedly of how he cried like a baby the day that he heard the news.

Furthermore, a few years ago, I heard another story that topped my friend’s reaction.

In 2002, a colleague at work came into my office for the first time and noticed some Yankee paraphernalia on my desk. He said to me “I hate the Yankees.” Not knowing what to say to such an out of the blue harsh comment, I asked “What team do you like?” He told me that he liked the New York Mets. To be polite, I asked why he liked the Mets. His answer was “When I was a kid, I loved the Yankees. But, when they traded away Bobby Murcer, they broke my heart. From that day, I decided that I would become a Mets fan and I’ve always hated the Yankees ever since.”

The Murcer-Bonds trade had that sort of impact on many Yankees fans. And, it probably was part of the reason why New York re-acquired Murcer less than five years after “the trade.”

Whether they remember Murcer as a great baseball player from the 1970's or as a current positive spokesperson for the Yankees organization, there are probably countless Bobby Murcer fans in Yankeeland today. I am one of them - and I can add that I've heard from people who have met Murcer that he's one of the nicest people that you can ever encounter.

Together, we need to marshal up our thoughts and hopes for positive results and sent them towards Bobby's way today, and in the days that follow.

Godspeed Lemon.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:23 AM | Comments (8)

December 27, 2006

Chasing Barry Zito

Since there seems to be much out there these days on whether or not the Yankees should chase after Barry Zito, I thought I would share some thoughts on this free agent pitcher.

First, I've heard reports of how Zito's record is "something great" when the A's score some-number-of-runs or more over a certain time period, etc. Forget that. It tells us nothing about how Zito pitches - in terms of his relative pitching performance results.

It's better off to look at Zito's career to date and realize that you need to give it a haircut of sorts to find the true level of what you can expect from him. There are two fluke seasons in there that you have to remove - 2002 and 2004. Zito will probably never again be as good as he was in 2002. And, considering his consistency in other seasons, it's safe to say that 2004 was just an off season for him.

What does that leave? It says that Barry Zito is a guy who will give you 34 starts a season, throw around 220 IP, and end up with 15-ish RSAA by year-end. And, he's probably good for this pace over the next three years. Where Zito goes after that is anyone's guess - he could be the next Whitey Ford or the next Denny Neagle, in my opinion.

If I'm the Yankees, I would offer Zito a three-year deal for $48 million with a club-option for a fourth year. The option year can even be triggered with meeting certain performance levels, if needed. But, I do not guarantee a fourth-year with the offer now. And, there's no way that I offer him a five-year deal (or greater) at this point.

Barry Zito can help the Yankees in 2007. And, he can probably help the Yankees in 2008 and 2009 as well. But, if someone else wants to offer him a deal for four years guaranteed at $64 million, or five years at $75 million, then New York should just tip their cap and wish Zito good luck with his new team.

I do like to think that Zito could be a David Wells type pitcher for the Yankees in New York. For what it's worth, he's even been pretty good in the post-season, to date, with an ERA 3.25 of seven games started.

It's just that the Yankees should be very careful to realize that he's not an ace who is going to give you 20+ RSAA in a season and he's someone who could fade from his current levels of performance just as easy as he could maintain them - because he's not that type of 20+ RSAA per season ace who typically remains good in his later years.

Therefore, there's no reason to break the bank in the chase for Barry Zito. But, if you luck into a Johnny Damon type situation - where the years and the money make sense to your situation, then it's something the Yankees should pull the trigger on - and New York should be monitoring his situation now with respect to contract offers coming his way.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:58 PM | Comments (16)

Who Is Yanks Whiff Kings Worst Enemy?

WasWatching.com reader "DonnieDosTresBaseball" made an interesting comment on this blog recently. Their statement included:

"...SO [strike out] pitchers do not fare well with the Yankees, because of umpire calls and better at-bats put forth by the opposition."

This notion got me wondering, so I turned to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia for some help.

First, I decided to use the "Mariano Rivera Era" (1995-2006) for my study group - because I thought it was important to take a recent snapshot to test this claim, but, I also wanted to get Mo's full career in there as well. Then, I asked to see the Top 25 (for the Yanks) in SO/9 IP vs. the League Average for the Mo Era - along with their relative pitching performance results. To see the data, click on the thumbnail below:

Let's use Rivera as the "Mendoza Line" here. This tells us that the Yankees, since 1995, have had 13 legit "strike out" pitchers: Farnsworth, Wetteland, Nelson, Gordon, Cone, Osuna, Clemens, Contreras, Stanton, Boehringer, Watson, Johnson and Rivera. And, only 7 of those 13 (roughly half) have been effective (meaning better than league average in their pitching results) while pitching for the Yankees.

Now, at first blush, I want to say that "command" in terms of SO/BB ratio might be the difference here - meaning that those in the Top 13 who did well in this study had better command than those who did not. Is that true? Click on the following thumbnail for more on that:

This is interesting. Jose Contreras has the same command, thereabouts, as Jeff Nelson. Yet, Nelson did better in New York. Randy Johnson has roughly the same command as Mariano Rivera. Yet, Mo pitched better for the Yanks than the Big Unit. See Kyle Farnsworth and Mike Stanton. And, see Antonio Osuna and David Cone.

What's going on with here with Jose Contreras, Randy Johnson, Kyle Farnsworth, Antonio Osuna and the other "strike out" pitchers who have not faired all that well in New York?

Well, getting away from the objective and more towards the subjective, aren't those names - the Contreras, Johnson, Farnsworth guys - the ones that you hear as not having the personality to "make it" in the New York media zoo?

So, when a "strike out" pitcher fails to do well for the Yankees, maybe it's more in his head than in the heads of the umpires? I'm not saying this is a "for sure" finding - but, based on what's been presented here, in this quick study, it's not a totally empty suggestion.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:56 AM | Comments (27)

December 26, 2006

Roger Clemens - Behind The Numbers

I was just looking at some of Roger Clemens' numbers from last year in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 - being curious since The Rocket may be on the Yankees Free Agent radar now - with the confirmation that they are shopping Randy Johnson.

In his 113.3 IP last year, Clemens faced 451 batters and had an ERA of 2.30 - which is a nifty figure, at face value.

However, in addition to that ERA stat, here are some other numbers on Roger from last year: his DER was .722 and his FIP was 3.07 - which tell part of an interesting story.

DER is the percent of times that a batted ball is turned into an out - not including homers. FIP is a measure, expressed sort of like ERA, of all things a pitcher is responsible for regardless of how well his fielders did.

For a compare on the Astros, Roy Oswalt had a DER of .692 and Andy Pettitte had a DER of .664. This tells you that Clemens was pretty lucky with getting batted balls turned into outs. And, this could explain the difference between his ERA and FIP.

Further, last year, 49% of the batted balls against Clemens last year were grounders. While that's just a few ticks above major league average, it's still above average. This suggests that Roger took advantage of having a good fielding infield at Houston last season. (According to the "Team Defense" feature in THT 2007, the Astros had the 5th best overall team defense in the N.L. in 2006. The Yankees, last year, for what it's worth, had the 27th worst team defense in all of baseball by the same measures.)

Seeing all this, if anyone is expecting Clemens to join the Yankees, at age 44, next season, and post an ERA under three, well, that would be a mistake.

In fact, Roger Clemens' lifetime Yankees ERA is 3.99 - and that was posted during his ages 36-40.

Given the time that has passed, it's reasonable to figure that Roger Clemens, if a member of the Yankees in 2007, will fashion an ERA in the fours - rather than one in the threes (or below).

I hope the Yankees realize this reasonable expectation, and the price-tag for Rocket next year, and proceed as warranted.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:43 PM | Comments (7)

Yanks Shopping After X-mas

It's now confirmed. The rumors from nine days ago are true. The Yankees are making strong moves in an attempt to trade Randy Johnson.

When I read this news, all I can think of is the story that Bob Klapisch shared a few months back:

It was late August when Johnny Damon took a long, hard look around the clubhouse and was appalled at what he saw. "Let's go (bleep-bleepers), wake up," Damon shouted. The center fielder had had enough of the Yankees' listlessness; it was so disturbingly different from the crazy energy he once shared with the Red Sox at Fenway. But instead of rallying the Yankees, Damon was met with silence.

That, and a cold stare across the room from Randy Johnson. Damon was so unnerved by the apathy, he later asked a team official, "Did I do something wrong?"

Clearly, Randy Johnson was a nasty dude in the clubhouse. That's fine when you pitch 200+ innings, with an ERA under three, and then carry your team in the post-season to a ring. But, when you're old, and your ERA is near five, then you can't play that game.

Pettitte in, Johnson out...anyone else feel like these are all just chess moves to get Clemens back in the Bronx?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:56 AM | Comments (29)

December 22, 2006

Happy Holidays!

Barring any breaking and hot Yankees-related news, I do not expect to be posting any entries to WasWatching.com over the next four days. Therefore, I wanted to take this time now to wish all the readers of this blog a safe and happy holiday season. It's been 20 months now that WasWatching.com has been up and running, and, I've truly enjoyed all the feedback to this site and its content that you have provided this year and last. Thanks for that wonderful present! I hope you all have as much fun (as I've had here so far) during your holiday observance.

Look for more stuff here starting next week!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:42 AM | Comments (12)

December 21, 2006

2007 ZiPS Projections

Via BaseballThinkFactory.org, Dan Szymborski shares his 2007 projections for the Yankees.

Dan likes Melky and the Big Unit in 2007. Personally, I think Darrell Rasner will have a much better year than his projections through ZiPS. Josh Phelps with just 5 less homers than A-Rod? Won't that be some story - for both those players involved.

Update: Whooops! Ignore the last comment on the homers. I was looking at the doubles column by mistake. I guess that I should not read stat projections so late at night!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:49 PM | Comments (16)

You Asked For It

Yet more from the Mailbag this week! See:

From Greg: The chance of a Melky/Gonzo deal put the focus on the bullpen for a change. How do you see roles in the bullpen shaping up this season?

WasWatching.com: I really think Torre wants Farnsworth out of town - because of his need to be babied. But, can they trade him? More likely, I see Farns becoming a secondary guy in the set-up scheme - with Proctor becoming the 8th inning guy (for Rivera). That leaves three other spots in the pen - and Myers should get one of those. The last two spots are for Bruney, Britton, and Rasner. I would not be shocked if Rasner gets one of them - they need someone out there who can give you three or four innings in a pinch.

From Vinodh: Should the Yanks consider moving Damon to first base and let Melky take over at center? If the options available right now are Hillenbrand, ice-cold-bat Doug and Andy.. then I would rather that Damon play first and Melky play center. Melky will be lot better than 50% of the CFers. And we can think about trading him next year, based on how Gardner works out!!

WasWatching.com: This makes perfect sense to me - heck, I was saying this back in October - and I would love to see this move happen. Therefore, it will, sadly, never happen this year.

From Brent: Just as a random common interest question, what do you think was the worst team that money could buy in MLB history?

WasWatching.com: I know that some like to say the 1992 New York Mets and others like the 2003 Mets too. To come up with the answer, I think you have to look at the teams who were 1-2-or-3 in terms of total payroll, for each season, and then look at those teams therein who won less than 55 games. From there, you can just about make a case for anyone in that final cut.

From Mark: Do you have any statistics which show if the Yanks, as a team, produce more or fewer runs offensively when playing behind a starter that allows more runs? In other words, does the team seem to compensate (or just plain play harder) when they have a weaker starter on the mound?

WasWatching.com: Run Support is the stat you seek. The Yankees really helped Randy Johnson this year. But, I think it just comes down to luck - meaning what opposing pitcher the Yankees pitcher lucks into facing that day.

From "Yankee1221": Ok I could understand if the Yanks feel pressure to develop and showcase quality arms from within the organization such as Boston has (Papelbon, Lester, Declarmen, Hansen) but do you think they should take a wait and see approach with their Top Prospect arms? As much as it would be nice to see a Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes one Two Punch I'd much rather have the sure thing and WIN! Wouldn't the Yankees be better off packaging Hughes to one of the other 31 teams who would surely take him for an ELITE pitcher...ala Santana, Halladay, Zambrano (Carl that is haha), Oswalt, Carpenter....and Ohhhh yea that stud in Florida???

WasWatching.com: If you had Santana, Halladay, or someone like that, and you were offered a Hughes for him, would you make the deal? Why would you? Therefore, why should someone else make that deal with the Yankees. It will never happen.

Thanks to all for the questions - all good stuff!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:30 PM | Comments (6)

You Asked For It

More from the Mailbag -

From George: I had this feeling that whenever Cano and Melky played in the same game that both hit better. Are there splits that shows their averages when they were both playing vs. only one or the other?

WasWatching.com: That's an interesting question. I went to the game logs for each this season, and, according to my quick count, when Cano and Melky both played in a game together, this is how they did:

Cano went 130 for 266 = .355
Melky went 81 for 317 = .256

So, Melky hit better when Cano was not playing. And, Cano was about the same, either way. Then again, we're dealing with small samples here. I don't think these results prove or disprove anything.

If anyone else has questions, be sure to send them in!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:36 PM | Comments (2)

Stump Merrill Retires

From the Bangor Daily News -

The Husson College baseball team will hold its annual Hot Stove Banquet and Sports Memorabilia Auction on Jan. 14 from noon to 2 p.m. at the Dickerman Dining Commons on the Husson campus.

The event, which is $20 for the general public, includes a spaghetti dinner, hot stove talk, and a sports memorabilia auction. The money raised at the event will benefit the Husson baseball team’s spring training trip to Florida in March.

Along with Husson head coach Dr. John Winkin, headlining the event will be Carl "Stump" Merrill, who is retiring after a 30-year career with the New York Yankees.

After graduating from the University of Maine, Merrill played minor league baseball for six years in the Philadelphia Phillies organization. His managing career started in 1978 with the West Haven Yankees, and he went on to manage at every minor league level.

In 1985, Merrill joined the parent club as a first base coach under manager Yogi Berra. He was named Yankee manager in June 1990 and managed the rest of that season and all of the 1991 season.

Merrill is currently a special assistant to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, and he will receive the Husson Sports Leadership Award for his lifetime of dedication to the game of baseball.

Ah, the 1991 Yankees - the last team in the Bronx to lose 90+ games in a season. That whole Dallas Green-Bucky Dent-Stump Merrill era (or should I say "error") was a really bad time in Yankeeland.

From 1989 through 1991 might just be the worst three-year period in Yankees history since the 1910's. That's a tough legacy for Stumpy.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:16 AM | Comments (6)

Oddibe Really Young Again

From The Daily News Journal -

When Alexander Cartwright first put bat to ball — and by doing so invented baseball — over 160 years ago, there's little chance he knew what type of influence the game would have on the country as a whole.

Kids grow up idolizing their favorite players, re-enacting their favorite moments in their backyards, and making their own plans for the day when they will one day lace up their cleats for their favorite big-league ballclub.

One local child got a chance, if only for a day, to get a taste of what that experience is like.

Christian Fogerty, a 9-year old fourth grader at Bellwood Discovery School, recently made the trip to New York City to meet his favorite player, Derek Jeter. The trip was an opportunity to not only get some face time with the Yankees All-Star shortstop and future Hall of Famer, but to pick up some tips from Jeter at the Steiner Sports Derek Jeter Clinic. The event, held at Riverbank Park Sports Complex, also featured instruction from Yankees' pitching coach Ron Guidry, Yankees' pitching prospect Phillip Hughes, and former-Yankee Tino Martinez.

Christian's mother, Mary Fogerty, discovered the camp a year ago on the internet and thought it would be the perfect motivational tool for her son to have a good year at school. For Christian, while it was good motivation, the wait was almost too much.

It's interesting to see Hughes running with the big boys on this one. Probably good - it will take some of the "awe" out of his eventual call-up to the show.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:02 AM | Comments (2)

December 20, 2006

You Asked For It

From the Mailbag today -

From Scott: The MelkMan?? This is a bad trade all the way around. Who would be our 4th outfielder? Bernie? As much as I love Bernie Baseball, his train has left the station. He offers us nothing offensively or defensively, but would be a nice bench player. Melky Cabrera is part of the future in NY and trading him for an average/above average middle reliver would be a mistake we would end up paying for midseason when the inevitable injury big bites. On another note, I was glad to see the Yanks "look with their eyes and not their hands" during the free-agent blitz. Looks like the Cubs have taken over as the Overpaid Mediocrity Franchise.

WasWatching.com: One of my biggest fears this off-season is the chance that Bernie Williams makes the 2007 Yankees - because you know Torre will play him in CF at least 20 times if he's on the roster. And, right now, Bernie has as much business manning center for a big league team as Ralph Wiggum. As far as the Cubs and their spending, well, how much will the Yankees be paying Randy Johnson and Carl Pavano in 2007?

From Mike: We all know Phil Hughes is the cream of the crop, but what do you think of some of the other arms the Yanks have in the minors, ie Humberto Sanchez, Joba Chamberlain and Dellin Betances? I also know you're a big Brett Gardner fan, but do you think he'll ever develop enough power to turn himself into a real threat instead of Scott Podsednik II?

WasWatching.com: Sanchez scares me because of his injury history. Joba scares me because of his weight issues in the past - guys rarely stay thin as they get older and make more money. Betances is young. Still, I like him the best of the three now. It will be interesting to see what he does in his first full season. As far as Gardner, he's going to need to slug at least four-hundred in Triple-A to have a shot at being somebody. Can he do it? We'll see this year. He's been an achiever his whole career - so, I would not be shocked if he pulled it off.

If anyone else has questions, be sure to send them in!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:37 PM | Comments (1)

Rockwell 80's Flashback

I just came across this blog item:

Pink Slip - Listening Up: Red Sox Response on the Virtual Waiting Room

What I found interesting here, if you look deep enough in this story, is that Dr. Charles Steinberg, the Boston Red Sox Executive Vice President of Public Affairs, has actually created a Google News Alert to capture items that contain the terms 'Red Sox.'

I wonder if anyone on the Yankees staff is in charge of checking all on-line sources that reference the Yankees? If so, "Hi there!"

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:29 PM | Comments (6)

Pinstripe Marketplace

For those who were not aware, around three months ago, this information was posted on the Yankees site:

Yankees Pinstripe Marketplace:

The Yankees are working hard to introduce the Yankees Pinstripe Marketplace - a new and exciting website feature which will create a forum through which Full Season Ticket Licensees will be permitted to resell their Tickets for games they are unable to attend. As a Full Season Ticket Licensee, you will be permitted to resell your Tickets, on an individual game basis, for a price above the established Ticket price. Payment for Tickets that are purchased through the Yankees Pinstripe Marketplace are settled electronically and the Tickets will be delivered to the buyer via e-mail using TicketFast technology. With TicketFast electronic delivery, the buyer will be able to print the Tickets instantly on any standard printer. With the Yankees Pinstripe Marketplace, your Tickets can be resold without violating the Yankees' Ticket License and none of your Tickets will go to waste.*

* Ticket(s) may only be resold on the Yankees Pinstripe Marketplace only in accordance with terms and conditions established by the Yankees from time to time including, but not limited to, the following: (i) only Approved Licensees will be permitted to resell their Ticket(s); (ii) Ticket(s) may only be resold through an Authorized Website; and (iii) Ticket(s) may not be resold for an amount in excess of 45% over the face value of the Ticket(s) plus lawful taxes and common carrier delivery charges. As used herein, "Approved Licensees" shall mean such Licensees as the Yankees may, from time to time, in its sole and absolute discretion, give the privilege of reselling Ticket(s), and who are so notified by the Yankees. As used herein, "Authorized Website" shall mean such internet website managed by the Yankees or its authorized agent that the Yankees may, in its sole and absolute discretion, offer and make available to Approved Licensees for purposes of permitted Ticket resale. As used herein, "common carrier charges and fees" shall mean and include reasonable and actual charges or fees charged by a common carrier for delivery of the Ticket.

And, via google, I've found references to the "Pinstripe Marketplace" as "coming soon" that date back to April 2006.

I called the Yankees Ticket Office today to see if there was an ETA for this service - and I was told that they (the staff) have "only heard about it" and "have no information to share." It was recommended that I "keep checking Yankees.com for more information."

Since the Yankees are selling tickets for 2007 now, and, the money from season ticket holders is due in the next week or so, would it not make sense for the Yankees to have this site up and running at the same time?

Scott Soshnick had a nice feature (a few months back) on how the Yankees mistreat their "most-loyal fans." As he put it:

It would seem the Yankees don't mind losing their best patrons. After all, when it comes to the Yankees, there's always another eager party waiting with credit card in hand.

This whole thing sort of makes me wish the Yankees "only" drew 2,000,000 fans a year. It would give those wanting to have tickets a little more leverage in terms of getting seats at decent prices and being able to control what they want to do with them.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:33 AM | Comments (3)

What Do You Want To Know?

In the next day or two (or three?) I expect to post a "Mailbag Feature" here. It might be fun. Related, if you have a Yankees-related or WasWatching.com-related question where you're looking for some opinion and/or an answer, please send it to me at:

staff (at) waswatching (dot) com

I can't ensure that I will be able to answer all the questions - but, I'll do my best to get to as many as possible. Thanks in advance to those who send something.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:27 AM | Comments (3)

December 19, 2006

Bernie Bags It

And it's for a good cause. From the Journal News -

New York Yankees veteran center fielder Bernie Williams has volunteered with Hillside Food Outreach for five years. Though he now helps with fundraising efforts, such as the organization's big annual event set for Jan. 27, he started out delivering groceries with his wife, Waleska Williams.

That was after a Hillside Food representative spoke at Williams' church and impressed the family.

"It struck a chord with my wife first," Williams said. "She initially was a volunteer, filling up the grocery bags. She had five families that she would deliver food to on a monthly basis and I would join in once in a while."

Along with reaching out to businesses and celebrities for contributions, Williams is a regular at the annual fundraiser and has brought along other Yankees, including manager Joe Torre and relief pitcher Mariano Rivera.

For more info on the Hillside Food Outreach project, click here.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:33 PM | Comments (2)

Straw: Jeter Must Embrace A-Rod

From the AP:

Darryl Strawberry thinks the Yankees' clubhouse is beset by bad chemistry that can be cured only one way: Derek Jeter needs to "embrace" Alex Rodriguez.

"They've got to come together," Strawberry said Tuesday. "It's time for them to mend their relationship and get back to, like, OK, let's have some fun. We're here in New York together. We're on the greatest team that we possibly could play on. Let's try to win instead of going separate ways. Because I remember them when they were young and they went to dinner together and they did everything together."

His remarks about the Yankees' chemistry were sparked by questions regarding the return of Andy Pettitte, who played with Strawberry on three of the Yankees' World Series championship teams. Pettitte was in New York for a physical Tuesday, and his contract could be finalized Wednesday.

"Hopefully, it will rub off on the team, guys will get more supportive of each other," Strawberry said. "I think the Yankees' problem is that they just don't support each other enough. I mean, back when I played in those years we were winning, we all supported each other, we all cared for each other. I think they need to get back to that, because the talent is there, but everybody seems like they're going their separate ways."

Strawberry said for Rodriguez to gain acceptance in the Yankees' clubhouse, Jeter must take the lead.

"I hope Jeter would embrace him this year, in spring training, and bring him into the full circle as a part of the Yankee family," Strawberry said. "If Jeter does it, I think everybody else will respond. I hope that works out for him, because once upon a time, they were best of friends and some things happened, which is life. And hopefully they will put those things behind them and hopefully they can come together."

Strawberry said the pair must take it upon themselves to right the Yankees, who despite nine straight AL East titles have not won the World Series since 2000.

"Both of them are leaders and they need to come together as leaders and bring that Yankee team back up to par, because the last few years they've been nowhere in sight," Strawberry said. "It's not about just getting in the first round. When you have talent like that, it's about winning."

I was just about to say "Where was Strawberry when A-Rod won the MVP, in New York, during 2005 - without Jeter's embrace?" Then, I remembered, on September 17, 2005, Strawberry had reported that his SUV was stolen from a Florida gas station. However, the station's surveillance video nailed Strawberry leaving as a passenger in another vehicle.

The cops later were informed that Strawberry had earlier left his SUV behind a sports bar and gave the keys to a some woman.

For that, Straw was charged with filing a false police report.

I'm guessing that Darryl was so busy dealing with that whole thing that he must have missed it when A-Rod was busy, without the embrace of Jeter, putting the finishing touches on his MVP season for the Yankees.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:29 PM | Comments (17)

Ian Kennedy *And* Melky Cabrera?

From MLBTradeRumors.com -

A baseball source indicated to MLBTradeRumors.com that the Yankees and Pirates are working on a trade that could be Mike Gonzalez and Nate McLouth for Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera.

Nate McLouth? At 25-years old, McLouth is just a younger version of Bubba Crosby.

So, if true, the Yankees would be trading their youngest, major-league-proven, position player and one of the, say, seventh best pitching prospects in their system, for a closer of limited experience who had a seriously sore arm last season (when he closed for the first time) and a Four-A back-up outfielder.

Aw, shucks, why doesn't New York throw-in a half-dozen Lamborghini's and an original copy of the Declaration of Independence too - just to further sweeten the pot for the Pirates?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:10 PM | Comments (24)

Mark Loretta

From RotoWorld.com -

ESPN's Buster Olney says the Yankees have been in contact with Mark Loretta about their opening at first base.

The Yankees should note Loretta's home/road OPS split last year.

His OPS was .787 at Fenway and .622 on the road. Yes, an OPS of .622.

If you're going to play Loretta at first, you might as well use Andy Phillips instead.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:53 PM | Comments (20)

Bronx Basher Meets Bronx Banter'er

The "Yankees 2000: Promote the Curse" Blog has interviewed Alex Belth (of Bronx Banter). Click here to read the interview.

If there's a guy out there nicer than Alex, I'm pretty sure that I've never met him. This interview is clearly "Alex being Alex." I recommend reading it.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:11 AM | Comments (1)

I'll Stick To Building.....Slots?

From the New York Times -

[Steve] Swindal [one of two managing general partners of the Yankees] is a partner in Excelsior Racing Associates, which last month won the recommendation of a committee to take over New York state’s thoroughbred racing franchise. The franchise covers the Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga tracks. The New York Racing Association has owned the franchise for 50 years, but its license expires at the end of next year. The State Legislature will designate the next franchise holder from among Excelsior, NYRA and Empire Racing.

Baseball owners have long owned racehorses, at least since John Galbreath in the 1940s. No owner is believed to have owned a racetrack. Certainly no owner has owned a track with slot machines on the premises. But that’s what Excelsior plans to do. Swindal said Aqueduct had 4,500 slot machines ready to become operative.

Swindal, who is George Steinbrenner’s son-in-law, said he had spoken to Commissioner Bud Selig about his participation in Excelsior.

“I have kept the commissioner informed about Excelsior and the bid process; I got his permission before I went into it,” Swindal said in a telephone interview Friday. “I haven’t encountered any problems. Before I went into it, I wanted to make sure. I said: ‘I want to bid on this franchise. It involves parimutuel racing.’ He said, ‘O.K. but keep me informed.’ ”

Swindal said he told Selig about the slot machines, too.

“He was informed of that,” Swindal said. “I did let him know that Aqueduct had 4,500 machines that were part of the bid. Most parimutuel facilities have slots now. It’s not an uncommon thing. They’re trying to get people back to the track.”

In addition, Swindal said, he told Selig that one of his Excelsior partners was Richard Fields, a casino developer.

Steinbrenner is not involved in Excelsior, Swindal said.

Selig, saying he didn’t want to comment on the matter, did not confirm Swindal’s characterization of what was said or blessed.

Man, the life of champagne wishes and caviar dreams...

I guess running a baseball team and building a new Stadium aren't enough for Swindal’s plate. Either that, or, Randy Levine and Brian Cashman are really running the entire show in the Bronx in the post-Stein days.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:23 AM | Comments (1)

December 18, 2006

Kei Igawa's Done

From The Daily Yomiuri -

The New York Yankees and Kei Igawa both played second fiddle in the posting sweepstakes. Igawa, though, got a first-rate deal it was learned on Monday, agreeing to a five-year, 20 million dollars contract with the Bronx Bombers.

The Yanks earned the right to negotiate with Igawa in late November and wasted little time getting the southpaw in pinstripes.

The deal for the 27-year-old, who was 14-9 this past season with a 2.97 ERA for the Hanshin Tigers, also includes incentives.

Negotiations were smooth thanks Igawa's agent, Arn Tellem, who has strong ties with the Yankees. Talks opened on Nov. 29 and Tellem made it clear that Igawa wanted a long-term deal.

I expect him to wear # 29 in New York.

Let's hope he's more like Catfish Hunter than he is Bob Shirley - two other # 29's for the Yankees.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:56 PM | Comments (34)

A Word Of Caution On Mike Gonzalez

Earlier this month, I expressed some concern about the Yankees bringing back Ron Villone - because of his command issues. Looking at the Yankees new LH-RP target, the Pirates Mike Gonzalez, today, I noticed that Gonzalez seems to walk a lot of batters as well. And, I thought, how does he compare to Villone in terms of issuing free passes? Thanks to sites like FanGraphs.com, the answer to questions like these are easy. Here's the comparison (click on the graph to enlarge it):

As you can see, both Villone and Gonzalez, for the most part, are below-major-league average (meaning they are poor) when it comes to limiting base-on-balls. (The blue line on the above chart is the major league average.)

That's not exactly what you want from your trusted late-in-the-game lefty "go-to" guy, is it?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:07 AM | Comments (22)

December 17, 2006

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007

As recent as the late 1970's, in common baseball circles, concepts such as recognizing the value of "On Base Percentage" (say, compared to "Batting Average") were as foreign as the concept of indoor plumbing is to Borat Sagdiyev today. However, progress can be made - after all, it was just three years ago that "On Base Plus Slugging Percentage" began to appear on the backs of baseball bubblegum cards.

Related, I am a firm believer that, someday, mainstream baseball - in the collective sense of more teams, players, agents, media and fans than not - will learn to embrace the usage of such (presently cutting-edge) baseball statistics such as Win Probability Results and Batted Ball Type Results.

It may take five years for this to happen, or thirty, or even another century - but, when it does occur, it will be (in part) thanks to the good folks at Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) and The Hardball Times (THT) as they have been championing this type of progressive baseball analysis for a while now.

As an example of how BIS & THT are helping to blaze this new trail for baseball statistic appreciation, I highly recommend reading The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 - as I have just completed reviewing The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 and can share (that, in my opinion) it is the new standard by which these types of sabermetric-themed baseball annuals should be judged.

Actually, I should take a step back and qualify that last statement with some further perspective. Last year, I had an opportunity to review The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 - and, at the time, said (about it): "I've read many books like this over the last 25 years and this one is right up there among the best of the group."

Therefore, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 actually set the bar for my expectations leading into reading The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 - and it was a very high bar. Nonetheless, the annual this year cleared that bar with daylight galore.

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 provides commentary and study covering what happened in the 2006 baseball season as well as baseball's past. And, it contains pages and pages (and pages!) of unique and telling baseball stats. If you're a baseball stat-junkie, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 will provide you with a fix that's good right up until Opening Day 2007 (and perhaps beyond).

In particular, I very much enjoyed the features (in this year's edition) contributed by THT Staff Writers John Brattain, Chris Constancio, David Gassko, Dave Studenmund, and John Walsh - along with the guest contributions from John Dewan, Will Leitch, John Burnson, Greg Rybarczyk, and Mac Thomason.

Do you want to know who are the best prospects in baseball? Who are the most valuable pitchers of all-time? What was the story behind the Federal League? Who had the best and worst outfield arms of our time? What's the history and impact of Tommy John Surgery? Which baseball team had the best defense in 2006? How much do ballparks and weather impact hitting? What types of players develop power as hitters? What's the difference between line-drives and strikeouts in terms of run impact? Who controls the batter-pitcher match-up? Then, you owe it to yourself to get The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007. All this, and more, can be found therein.

You know, as antiquated as "Batting Average" is in terms of being a useful tool in determining a batter's worth, it does still hold one truth that cannot be denied: If you're batting 1.000, you're perfect.

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2007 is batting 1.000 - in terms of providing great and ground-breaking baseball analysis. It's a worthy pick-up.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:19 PM | Comments (4)

Yanks Help Tampa Foster Kids

From WTSP/Tampa Bay's 10 News -

Governor-elect Charlie Crist, Lieutenant Governor-elect Jeff Kottkamp and members of the New York Yankees held a mini baseball camp for Florida's foster children at Legends Field in Tampa today.

This event is one of many leading to Inauguration Day on January 2nd in Tallahassee.

Members of the New York Yankees organization - including Alex Rodriguez, Johnny Damon and retired first baseman Tino Martinez - held the camp for 50 Florida foster children.

It's a nice story. But, I have to confess - the home page of the WTSP team has me checking my eyes now. In the banner of the page is a team photo of the news team with their names. Do they realize that the order reads "Reggie, Heather, Dick Justin"?

Reminds me of when the Red Sox used to have their retired numbers hung at Fenway in the order they were retired: 9, 4, 1, and 8, - reminding fans of Sept. 4, 1918, the day before the start of the last World Series the Red Sox won - before 2004.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:18 PM | Comments (2)

Moving Johnson?

No, it's not Costanza worrying about a reactional byproduct from getting a massage from a man. From the Post -

Despite the buzz leaking out of the desert, Randy Johnson hasn't asked the Yankees to deal him closer to his Arizona home.

"He hasn't called me officially and asked me to trade him, no," GM Brian Cashman said yesterday when asked if the Big Unit requested the Yankees move him.

Cashman, asked if he was attempting to move Johnson, who has a blanket no-trade clause and is 20 wins shy of 300, wouldn't comment. Alan Nero, one of Johnson's agents, said there was no truth to the rumor.

"There is nothing coming out of our camp," Nero said. "I don't know where rumors start."

Note: The "He hasn't called me officially" and "wouldn't comment" parts.

Sounds like the Yankees would love to move Randy back 'home.' I agree. Randy Johnson in 2007 is starting to smell too much like Kevin Brown in 2004 to me these days. It's time for a courtesy flush.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:15 AM | Comments (16)

December 16, 2006

"Algebra Cabrera!" or "Melk's Ilk Parte Dos"

Comments made by WasWatching.com readers over the last 24 hours - along the lines of "What's the big deal about trading Melky Cabrera?" - got me wondering about "How special was Melky, in the Yankeeland grand scheme of things, last summer?"

To find the answer, I turned to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.

The question, for me, is simple: How many players, age 21 or younger, have ever played a (for the most part full) season for the New York Yankees, and were actually productive with the stick?

The answer, via the "CBE," in the form of a chart:

Yes, the answer is: Before Melky Cabrera this year, only five players (Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Ben Chapman, Tony Kubek and Willie Randolph) - in the entire history of the Yankees franchise.

Now, please do not confuse what I am suggesting. There's no way that I am saying that Cabrera is the next Mantle or DiMaggio. More so, I am merely pointing out that a very young player, one who logs a full season with the Yankees, and who demonstrates that he can hold his own at such a young age with the stick, is a rare find - indeed.

The Willow match-up should not be a surprise - because that was my finding back in August of this year when I was looking for a Melky-Comp.

Again, back in August, at the time of the Randolph-match discovery, I wrote: "Melky Cabrera will go on to play in the major leagues for at least another dozen years (barring injury) and have several productive seasons to his credit when it's all said and done."

I still stand by that projection. And, that's the "big deal" about trading Melky Cabrera. Moving Cabrera, after what he has shown, is not the same as trading away a Dan Pasqua or Hensley Meulens. Therefore, if you're going to trade Melky, you had better realize that you're trading away something special - and the type of young player who does not appear on the Yankees scene very often.

Personally, I could see the trade of Melky Cabrera (from the Yankees) having as much negative impact on the team as the trade for Paul O'Neill had a positive impact (for New York when they acquired him). Players like Melky are play-makers.

Smart teams usually try to acquire them and/or keep them - they don't trade them away (unless you're getting equal or better value in return).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:20 PM | Comments (29)

December 15, 2006

The Melk Man For Mike Gonzalez?

From the Beaver County Times -

If the Pittsburgh Pirates wind up trading closer Mike Gonzalez, it appears the most likely destination for the left-hander is the New York Yankees.

Baseball sources indicated Friday that Yankees are willing to part with left-handed hitting outfielder Melky Cabrera straight-up in a trade for Gonzalez. But the Pirates reportedly want a second player included, though the Yankees are highly unlikely to put right-hander Scott Proctor into the deal.

Cabrera, 22, hit .280 with seven homers, 50 RBIs and 12 steals in 130 games as a rookie last season after batting .385 with four homers and 24 RBIs in 31 games with Class AAA Columbus.

Gee, last time I checked, Melky was a switch-hitter...anyway...

If the Yankees are going to trade Melky Cabrera (alone, or with something) for Mike Gonzalez, then all I can say is that they better be right.

By this, I mean, either they don't think Melky is going to be a very good full-time player, or, they think that Melky can play, but, they also think that getting Gonzalez now is like getting Goose Gossage back in 1978. Otherwise, there's no way that you make this trade.

Because, if, at the end of the day, Mike Gonzalez turns out to be more like Felix Heredia, or, if, the moving of Melky Cabrera turns out to be the second coming of the Jay Buhner trade, then this move, if it happens the way it's being proposed, will become a "Hugh Grant-Divine Brown" (What the hell were you thinking?) event for Brian Cashman.

When it comes to time to review Cash's resume, everything else will take a back-seat to this deal - if it's made and the Yankees are not right in their assessment of the talent involved.

Yankees, if you're reading this, again, be warned. If you do this, you better be right.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:09 PM | Comments (29)

Torre To Manage Yanks A-Ball Team

Nah, it's not what you think -

from OurSportsCentral -

CHARLESTON, SC - The New York Yankees have named Torre Tyson, who spent the past two seasons as hitting coach of their Class A affiliate in Charleston, as the new RiverDogs' manager.

"Starting with Torre Tyson we think that the Charleston RiverDogs will have an exceptional on-field staff of quality coaches and teachers," said Mark Newman, the Yankees' Senior Vice President for Baseball Operations. "They will have a lot of support from guys like Pat Roessler (Director of Player Development), who is quite familiar with the RiverDogs, and our minor league coordinators."

Roessler pulled double-duty last year as he also served as the RiverDogs' interim manger upon the mid-season resignation of second-year manager Bill Mosiello, who left to become an assistant coach at the University of Southern California.

Tyson, who at 31 makes his managing debut, spent three years as a player in the Red Sox organization before joining the Yankees, where he played for three seasons, reaching the AA level. After his playing career, he spent time with the Yankees' squad at short-season Class A Staten Island before serving as the RiverDogs' hitting coach for the past two seasons.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:35 AM | Comments (7)

When A Cold Messes With The Mind

Last night I had a dream where I was at a ski resort, having a snowball fight with Elston Howard's daughter, Cheryl.

Yes, I think about the Yankees too much. But, I'm also blaming it on the benadryl.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:08 AM | Comments (7)

December 14, 2006

61 Days

...until Pitchers and Catchers report.

Sorta hard to believe that, in just two months, it's time to strap it on again for another season. But, it's also nice to know that it's almost here.

tick, tick, tick..........

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:38 PM | Comments (4)

Shake 'n bake!

Pete Abe has a great Johnny Damon piece up today.

I really like that guy.

Both Pete and Johnny.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:15 PM | Comments (0)

Mike Pagliarulo

If you want to know what former Yankees player Mike Pagliarulo is up to these days, click here. (Hat tip to BaseballMusings.com.)

His group, IScouts, Inc., is a technology-enabled international scouting service that delivers custom professional scouting information and video to baseball organizations around the world.

I always liked "Pags." Nice to see he's found something to do in his post-playing days.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:34 AM | Comments (5)

Let's Pretend For A Moment

Here's a question for you.

Say I told you of a smallish RHP, make him under 6 feet tall and less than 190 pounds, who had thrown 1,400 innings over the past eight minor league seasons - all before the age of 27.

And, while he's faced big league hitters in some exhibition games, he's never pitched a "major league" game yet in his life.

Further, let's say that I told you that the Yankees went out and signed this pitcher to a six-year contract - for close to $9 million per season.

What would your reaction be to this news?

O.K., then that should be your reaction to the Red Sox signing Daisuke Matsuzaka as well.

I really want to see the R.O.I. for RSN on Matsuzaka come 2010 through 2012. I almost can't wait.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:16 AM | Comments (14)

December 13, 2006

News On Munson Awards Dinner Next Month

From Scout.com -

A lineup of five sports greats – Jets star running back Curtis Martin, Knicks all time center Patrick Ewing, Yankees starter Mike Mussina, former Yankees reliever and Thurman teammate Rich "Goose" Gossage, and Mets slugger Carlos Delgado – will be honored at the 27th annual Thurman Munson Awards Dinner on Tuesday night, January 30, 2007 at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in New York City.

The announcement was made by the AHRC New York City Foundation , which benefits from the gala which the late, great Yankee catcher and captain Thurman Munson, who died tragically in a 1979 plane crash.
Diana Munson, Thurman’s widow, has been involved in the benefit since its inception, raising nearly $8 million to assist children and adults with developmental disabilities. Those honorees will be receiving Munson Awards for their excellence in competition and their philanthropic work within the community.

The Munson Awards Dinner has previously honored such notables as Willie Randolph, Mariano Rivera, Muhammad Ali, Yogi Berra, Don Mattingly, Jorge Posada, Joe Torre, Bernie Williams, Arthur Ashe, Willis Reed, Earl Monroe, Willie Mays, Mark Messier, Mike Richter, Tom Seaver and John Franco, just to name a few.

The AHRC New York City Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that supports programs enabling children and adults with developmental disabilities to lead richer, more productive lives, including programs of AHRC New York City. AHRC New York City is one of the largest organizations of its kind, serving 11,000 children and adults who have mental retardation, autism, cerebral palsy, traumatic brain injuries and other developmental disabilities.

For tickets and information on the Munson Awards Dinner contact 212-249-6188.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:39 PM | Comments (6)

Peers Ring In On Cashman

Baseball America recently had a feature on "Rating the best GMs in the business." Here's some of the things said therein about Brian Cashman:

DEALING WITH OWNERSHIP

A's GM Billy Beane joined many others in admiring Brian Cashman (Yankees): "It's a huge undertaking being GM of the Yankees. No one else has to deal with a club president who negotiated a labor contract, a boss who's the highest-profile owner in American sports, in the biggest city in America, and completely separate baseball operations in Florida for all those years. For Brian to handle it this deftly, you have to be pretty Machiavellian."

MEDIA RELATIONS

Using the press not just to deliver messages to a demanding public but also to disseminate and receive information is a fine art, with BRIAN CASHMAN (Yankees) being rated the master for handling this in New York's hurricane. "Honesty, integrity, volume," Nationals GM Jim Bowden said. "He's extremely impressive." Added Astros counterpart Tim Purpura, "I don't know how he does it. Brian is very honest and very direct. There's no dancing around. When he can't answer he says he can't. That's the only way to do it, particularly with that kind of volume in that city."

An honest Machiavellian? Isn't that like a checked swing?

OK, joking aside, I think most would agree that Cashman should get high marks for dealing with the complexity of the Yankees management chain and the New York media. I do think that the jury is still out on his "roster-management" work.

In any event, Brian has never snuck out of Yankee Stadium in a gorilla suit like Boston's boy-wonder did once at Fenway. That should tell you that there are a lot worse guys who could be the Yankees G.M. right now.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:26 AM | Comments (21)

December 12, 2006

Brandon Claussen

I just saw that the Reds designated LHP Brandon Claussen for assignment. Of all the "pitchers" (meaning excluding position players who once took toe to the rubber in a pinch) who pitched in exactly one game for the Yankees, in their career, is Claussen the guy who has the best overall career numbers?

If he's not the guy, he must be in the top five - I would imagine. Unless you want to go with Tim Redding...

By the way, in researching this, I came across a pitcher by the name of "Rugger Ardizoia" who threw one game for the Yankees back in 1947. Great name. I would love to see Bob Sheppard work that one.

"Rinaldo Joseph (Rugger) Ardizoia" was a native of Oleggio, Italy - and a teammate of Phil Rizzuto. Holy cow! Seriously, Rugger may have been the 5th best big leaguer to come from Italy (directly). Then again, there probably only 5 or 6 big league players in the history of the game that were born in Italy.

Back to Claussen - as much as I hated the trade (that sent him away) when it happened, all things considered, now, it didn't turn out all that bad.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:25 PM | Comments (12)

Wang & Pettitte Ring Keys For 2007?

Most know off the top of their head that the Yankees have lost 10 of their last 13 post-season games. But, how many know which pitchers started those 10 games that New York lost? Well, if you don't know, here's the list:

Mussina - 3 games
Johnson - 2 games
Wang, Wright, Brown, Lieber, and El Duque - 1 game each

When I see this, I have to wonder if the Yankees post-season results would have been different if Mussina and Johnson had been "lights-out" post-season "horses" for New York in the last 2 or 3 seasons.

Mussina stands out more than Johnson here because he had starts in key losses in this year's ALDS, last year's ALDS, and the ALCS of 2004.

Granted, in 2004, in the ALCS loss that he started, Mussina went 6 IP and allowed just 2 runs. But, you can also wonder - what if he were able to give you more than six? Would that have helped the Yankees pen hold that Game 5 contest - and given the Yankees the pennant in five games?

Clearly, Mussina spit the bit in Game 5 of the 2005 ALDS and his failure to hold the lead in Game 2 of the 2006 ALDS was the turning point of the series.

Moving off Moose for now, Johnson was flat out bad in his ALDS starts of 2005 and 2006.

Thinking this all over, perhaps the key to the Yankees 2007 post-season success (if they make the post-season) will be not having to rely on Mussina and Johnson to carry them in the playoffs?

This puts the pressure on Wang and Pettitte. But, then again, since Mussina and Johnson have shown that they cannot be counted on as being the "go-to" guy, at this stage in the careers, in the post-season, perhaps it's a good thing that the Yankees now have Pettitte to pair with Wang for October games?

Basically, outside of the 2001 World Series and the 2002 ALDS, Pettitte came through for the Yankees when they needed him the most in the post-season. And, Wang has been solid in his two post-season career starts.

Let's just hope that their arms hold up through next October. The Yankees will need them.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:07 PM | Comments (25)

After The Road

Tiffany from the YES Network's Ultimate Roadtrip show (Season 2) has a blog now - it's called Ultimate Banter - in case you're interested.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:52 AM | Comments (3)

Mike Gonzalez

George Kings reports that the Yankees and Red Sox both lust for the Pirates Mike Gonzalez.

The Yanks should have listened to me back in June of 2005 - they may have gotten him cheaper back then.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:46 AM | Comments (6)

December 11, 2006

They Don't Grow Many, Do They?

I was just wondering when was the last time that the Yankees had a 26-year old pitcher throw 200+ IP with at least 15 RSAA - like Worm Killer Wang did in 2006. So, I turned to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia and did a sort from 1973:

Funny, it was almost a year ago here that I reflected on that 1992 season by Melido Perez.

In any event, there's a case to be made that Wang is the best home-grown starting pitcher for the Yankees since Andy Pettitte and Ron Guidry. And, he's probably the best right-handed SP developed by the Yankees since the days of Mel Stottlemyre, Stan Bahnsen and Jim Bouton.

You would think that there would have been more of these guys in the last 40-years or so?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:10 PM | Comments (10)

Bad News On Montero & Garcia

From Baseball America -

The Yankees reportedly gave another international player $2 million this year, but reports on Jesus Montero have not been good ever since the Yankees signed him for that amount in July. Montero has been dogged by rumors that he fudged his age or worse, and sources had indicated for weeks that his contract was under review by the commissioner's office at the Yankees' request.

Newman confirmed that the Yankees and Montero, a Venezuelan catcher with prodigious power potential, had "long, involved" negotiations. He would not comment on the value of Montero's signing bonus, but said one source's information--that Montero's bonus had been restructured to $1.3 million--was not correct. His only on the record comment was that "there is no age issue" with Montero, who struggled in the Yankees' fall mini-camp.

Newman confirmed a final rumor, that the Yankees had a second righthander who has had to have elbow surgery after pitching in Hawaii Winter Baseball. First it was 2006 ninth-round pick Mark Melancon. Now, 2004 third-round pick Chris Garcia has had elbow surgery to reinforce a torn ligament, a surgery similar to that performed on Mariano Rivera when he was in the minor leagues.

"He will not pitch in 2007; the goal is 2008," Newman said. "It would really be pushing it to have him come back by instructional league next year."

Garcia ranked as the Yankees' No. 6 prospect on a list that already has changed dramatically with the injury to Melancon (No. 9) and the acquisition of Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan from the Tigers in the Gary Sheffield trade. The 21-year-old missed much of the 2006 season with an oblique strain. He also pitched 21 innings in HWB, striking out 23.

"Jesus Montero" is starting to look like the Latin translation of "Brien Taylor." Bummer news for Garcia - I wonder if Mo will talk to him this Spring about keeping his chin up?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:33 PM | Comments (9)

Joe Torre & Phil Simms Sighting

From the Bigelow Tea Blog - really, the Bigelow Tea Blog!

Phil Simms (former Quarterback of the NY Giants) and his wife Diana as well as Joe Torre (manager of the Yankees) and his wife Ali came to spend a day at Bigelow Tea here in Fairfield, Connecticut. All I can say is wow! It was probably one of the most exciting days for our employees that I can ever remember.

We first did a plant tour where everyone in the plant got a chance to shake hands and say hello to the sports Icons, we then followed up with a Q&A session where all our employees got to ask questions where the candid answers and the excitement in the room actually gave me the chills. It was amazing to see all of our employees have direct contact with Joe and Phil…it was beyond words.

We then finished up with departmental photos with the two gentlemen. The smiles filled the room. When the photos were complete, we finished up with a lovely lunch. I think everyone had a great time. It was even more special that Joe and Phil brought their wives; Diana Simms and Ali Torre were complete delights.

I wonder if Torre told Simms about anything big happening in Yankeeland this week? If only the green tea leaves could talk!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:08 PM | Comments (2)

Who Needs A Scorecard?

In reading Cliff Corcoran's Yankees by the Numbers, today, I became aware, for the first time, of the YankeesNumbers.com site.

Who remembered that Kerry Dineen wore two different numbers for the Yankees!

Awesome stuff.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:27 AM | Comments (0)

Cardinal Carl?

From Jim B at Newsday -

The Cardinals have asked to view Carl Pavano's expansive medical records, according to a report in yesterday's St. Louis Post-Dispatch, a sign that the Yankees might be able to get out from under that albatross of a contract.

The Rockies previously expressed interest in the righthander, but talks broke down because they wanted the Yankees to eat most of the $22.95 million left in the final two years of his four-year, $39.95-million deal, a person familiar with the talks said.

Finances figure to be an obstacle in potential talks with the Cardinals, making it far more likely that Pavano will have to prove his health by pitching regularly during spring training to increase his trade value.

Just watch, Dave Duncan will get him to win the 2007 N.L. Cy Young now....

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:31 AM | Comments (7)

Juan Miguel Miranda

From ESPN.com -

The New York Yankees signed Cuban prospect Juan Miranda to a four-year contract worth $2 million, the player told ESPNdeportes.com.

The deal, which includes a signing bonus of $500,000, is a major league contract and requires the Yankees to place the outfielder-first baseman on their 40-man roster.

The signing was confirmed by a Yankees official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

"In Cuba I grew up dreaming of playing in the big leagues, but I never thought it would be possible, much less with the Yankees," the 23-year-old Miranda said.

The left-handed-hitting Miranda was on the Cuban national team from 2001 until defecting to the Dominican in early 2004 following two previous unsuccessful attempts to leave Cuba by raft. Miranda gained Dominican citizenship last year. He left behind his parents and three brothers in the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

"Miranda is projected to hit over 20 home runs and hit .280," the Yankees official told ESPNdeportes.com. "He doesn't swing at bad pitches."

For what it's worth, I noticed that Miranda also played some outfield in 2004:

Pinar del Río became the first team to win a spot in the semifinal stage of the Cuban baseball championship on Friday when they beat host Isle of Youth 9-1 at the "Estadio Cristóbal Labra".

The victory for the Greenlegs came behind an excellent pitching by right-hander Vladimir Baños who scattered six hits in seven innings, and a 14-hit offense led by left-fielder Juan Miguel Miranda, with a homerun, a double and three RBIs.

And, he owes former Yankee Jose Rijo for helping him out once:

Jose Rijo went to the Dominican Republic last week to find and sign young prospects to increase Latin talent in the Washington Nationals' depleted farm system.

Little did Rijo know he would wind up being a freedom fighter of sorts.

The former Cincinnati Reds pitcher, who runs a baseball academy in the Dominican Republic, saved six Cuban players who were jailed there from being deported to their native country.

Rijo, a Dominican native, pleaded their case to government officials and got the players released. They will be living and playing at Rijo's baseball academy for the time being, he said.

The Miami Herald reported the arrests of the six players last week and identified one as Juan Miguel Miranda of Pinar del Rio, who played two years with Cuba's national team. He had been suspended from Cuban baseball in the fall after government authorities accused him of planning to defect.

I just hope that he works out for New York better than Willy Miranda did....and, in any event, now, should Ivan Danko ever ask me "Do you know Miranda?" I will have a G-rated answer.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:10 AM | Comments (0)

December 10, 2006

2007 Yankees Tickets

I've mentioned in the past that I've been a Yankees season ticket holder since 2001. The seats that I have offer a great view - they're Loge Box MVP seats, right by 1B.

I get the full 81-game season package - and then I split the games with eight other parties. (For examples of how we split the games, click here.)

It's not a cheap thing to do - as I estimate that one "share" in the group this year will run about $1,140 - but, if you like to go to games, have great seats (as you stay dry and cool in the Loge - to go along with the great view), and have a chance for great seats to a post-season game (as we get the same exact seats in the post-season), it's not a bad deal.

We may have an opening in our group (for a share) in 2007. I will know soon - for sure. If anyone is interested in joining the group - knowing the price now (and that the money will be due by year-end 2006) - drop me a note and we can talk about it off-line.

Thanks.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:35 PM | Comments (0)

Sox Matsuzaka Talks Stall

From the Boston Herald -

Negotiations between the Red Sox [team stats] and Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka have essentially broken down, a source familiar with the talks said late last night, adding that unless there is an abrupt change of course, Matsuzaka will not be signing with the Red Sox before Thursday’s midnight deadline.

Attempts to reach Matsuzaka’s agent, Scott Boras, were unsuccessful last night. However, the well-placed source blamed Boras for stubbornly being unable to get over the flaws in the Japanese posting system, saying that he has been unwilling to negotiate and that he has acted disinterested in even making a deal.

When I see this report, three things come to mind.

1. Is this just the usual before-the-deadline bluff/stall/chicken game that occurs...or...

2. Maybe the Sox did just want to block the Yankees on D-Mat, after all, or, perhaps maybe Boras is trying to break the posting system here - and he will have Matsuzaka sign with a team like the St. Paul Saints for 2007 and then be a true Free Agent in 2008...and, perhaps...

3. If the Red Sox do not sign D-Mat, then that opens the door for Clemens to return to Boston. (Maybe even as a closer?)

That last item makes me wonder. Many Yankees fans are upset with Clemens for his "retirement" scam of 2003. Still, some Yankees fans were O.K. with Roger's return to baseball, so quick, after the 2003 World Series. In any event, I wonder how Rocket's Yankees legacy will be different if he were to sign with the Boston Red Sox for 2007? I think the move to Boston changed the Yankees legacy of David Cone - and David Wells, somewhat, as well. Would Clemens get any different treatment?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:04 PM | Comments (14)

December 09, 2006

Sweeny Murti Moving?

From The Philadelphia Inquirer -

Sweeny Murti, who covers the Yankees for WFAN radio in New York, is the lead candidate to become the Phillies' new pregame and postgame host on radio broadcasts. Murti, talented and likable, is a native of the Harrisburg area.

Philly's gain would be New York's loss. Murti does a great job covering the Yanks.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:34 PM | Comments (4)

The Baseball Strategist

I just came across another blog by a Yankees fan and thought that I would share the link. Here it is: The Baseball Strategist. Looks lke they have a detailed Pettitte feature up today.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 05:20 PM | Comments (0)

Doug Mientkiewicz

From the Post -

With Andy Pettitte joining fellow ground-ball specialist Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees have shown an interest in slick-fielding first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz.

Even though Mientkiewicz is a left-handed hitter and the Yankees are seeking a right-handed bat at first, he isn't an automatic out against lefties (.274 last year). Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi handle left-handers well, and Mientkiewicz is considered a defensive upgrade at first over right-handed hitting Shea Hillenbrand, who has talked with the Yankees.

"He catches the ball, that's a lock," a scout said of 32-year-old Mientkiewicz, who batted .283 with four homers and 43 RBIs for the Royals last season.

33-years old. Zero stick. Bad back.

Pass.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:15 AM | Comments (8)

Review: Best By Number: Who Wore What With Distinction

The Sporting News has recently released three new sports-related books:

* Warriors: The Greatest Photographs of Football's Toughest Players

* Grudges, Guts, Glory: Sports All- Time Great Grudge Matches

and

* Best By Number: Who Wore What With Distinction

I had a chance to review Best By Number: Who Wore What With Distinction and found it to be an extremely fun read.

In a nutshell, Best By Number runs through the digits "zero" (or "00") to "99" and identifies the best athlete to wear that number. But, there's more to this book than just that "best-of" identification exercise. In addition to naming "the best" for each number, the authors list "the best of the rest" for each number. Along with this is an abundance of facts and stories on the athletes - on both the greatest selections as well as the other "elites" and "notables." Lastly, Best By Number is full of incredible and unique color photographs.

While all sports are used for the selections, as you can imagine, baseball players take a fair share of the titles for each digit highlighted - and many of those are Yankees. (Although you'll never guess who topped Derek Jeter for number "2" all-time.)

Ruth-Gehrig-DiMaggio took 3-4-5, naturally. But, Mantle lost to another former Yankee (of sorts) for # 7.

From the book, here's a Yankees trivia question for you: What number in the Bronx was taken from 1964-74 and 1976-88 by two men who later earned World Series rings as coaches, together, in New York? The answer to follow at the end of this review.

You can easily lose yourself just thumbing through Best By Number - and, it's an excellent holiday gift idea for the big-time sports-fan on your shopping list.

Best By Number: Who Wore What With Distinction was released (in Hardcover) this past Fall and contains 224 pages. The retail price is $24.95.

--------
Trivia answer: #30 - worn by Mel Stottlemyre (64-74) and Willie Randolph (76-88).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:04 AM | Comments (8)

December 08, 2006

What A Difference Two Months Makes

Two months ago, I wrote that the Yankees were short two quality pitchers in their 2007 rotation - and that was why next season was going to be just like 2004, 2005, and 2006.

Since that time, New York has re-signed Mike Mussina, won the rights to sign Kei Igawa, and signed Andy Pettitte. While I was on record before the Moose signing that bringing him back was a mistake, now that Pettitte is here, I think Mussina is a good piece to the Yankees 2007 puzzle.

Let's stay on Pettitte for a minute or two. Since 2000, Andy Pettitte has posted a positive RSAA season every year - with a high of 43 RSAA in 2005 and a low of 4 RSAA in 2004. For the most part, Pettitte been near double-digits RSAA in each of the last seven years.

Only two pitchers in baseball have posted 1+ RSAA seasons for the last seven years in a row: Andy Pettitte and Barry Zito.

In fact, over the last six seasons in a row, only five pitchers have had 1+ RSAA each season: C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, Pettitte and Zito.

Andy Pettitte is a solid, reliable, big league pitcher. He's a true #2 man in the rotation who will win 15-something games for you a year (thereabouts).

By having Pettitte, to now follow Worm Killer Wang in the Yankees rotation, this allows Mussina to be the Yankees #3 man in their 2007 rotation. At this stage in his career, being #3 is the perfect role for Mussina. Therefore, I'm dropping my issue with the decision by the Yankees to re-sign Moose.

Further, this means that Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner and most likely Kei Igawa are available to cover the Yankees last two slots in their rotation.

At the end of the day, I expect Johnson and Igawa to win the final two spots - and they will be backed up by Karstens and Rasner (which is good because these two lefties do carry some question marks in 2007).

Pavano will be traded by April 1, 2007 - unless Johnson's health takes a huge turn for the worse and Pavano really impresses Torre and Cashman between now and March. (I suppose Pavano could be kept if Igawa does not sign - but I would be surprised if Igawa does not join the team.)

Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Johnson & Igawa give the Yankees a solid rotation. With three lefties, this rotation reminds me of the 1980 Yankees, where:

Pettitte = Ron Guidry
Johnson = Tommy John
Igawa = Tom Underwood
Mussina = Luis Tiant
Wang = Ed Figueroa

Except Wang is much, much, better than Figgy. And, maybe Johnson should be line-up with Underwood and Igawa with John - given the "stuff" that Unit and Igawa have at this stage of their careers.

Is this all too much to digest? Here's a simple thing to noodle:

Compare the Yankees 2006 rotation to how the 2007 one projects. Wang, Mussina and Johnson are constant. However, Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa replace Jaret Wright and Shawn Chacon/Corey Lidle.

Ladies and Germs, that's an upgrade - and it's a beautiful thing. And, it only took 2 months to happen.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:43 PM | Comments (7)

Pettitte Done?

I've heard rumors that ESPN News and ESPN Radio in NYC are now reporting that the Yankees have signed Pettitte to a one-year deal. I have no confirm myself yet. I will have more on this possible story later today.

Update, 4:21 PM ET: ESPN.com now has a BREAKING NEWS Alert up that reads:

Source: Pettitte headed back to the Bronx

After three years in Houston, Andy Pettitte is returning to the New York Yankees with a one-year deal, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reported Friday. Terms were not yet known.

Update, 4:25 pm ET: ESPN.com now has a story up on the report:

Many thought Andy Pettitte should have never left New York. It looks like that issue has been rectified.

The left-hander and the Yankees have reached an agreement on a one-year deal that will pay him $16 million in 2007 with a player option for 2008, sources close to the negotiations told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Friday.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:17 PM | Comments (14)

The Mo Call

In case you were not aware, Mariano Rivera will be a Free Agent, as it stands now, after the 2007 season. He wants to stay in New York through the 2009 season - see his comments from last month:

Rivera, whose contract expires after the 2007 season, wants to sign a contract extension that will allow him to play two more seasons. Although the Yankees don't typically sign players to extensions before their contracts are up, Rivera is one of the few players that New York hasn't allowed to reach free agency.

"I want to talk to them about another contract; maybe two more years," Rivera said. "Hopefully we can do it soon, maybe before the season."

In March 2004, Rivera had one year remaining on his deal when he signed a two-year extension with an incentive-based option for 2007. He is in the same position now, and it's hard to believe that the Yankees will let their closer finish his career in another uniform.

General manager Brian Cashman did not return phone calls seeking comment.

This is an interesting call. Mo will be 38 at the end of next season. Do you extend him prior to the season or after? Logic says that you wait. The heart says that you do not wait.

You know that Rivera will want at least $11 per year. Do you risk paying that to someone who will be 40 in the last year of his deal - even if it is the great Mariano - given that he's had some arm woes this past season?

Because of who he is, what he's meant to this franchise, and what he means to it at this moment, I think the Yankees have to go for it, extend him, and do it before the start of the 2007 regular season. I would aim to get him inked right around the last week of Spring Training.

And, if you end up eating the money, it's going to taste a lot better than it did eating the money on guys like Karsay and Dotel.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:25 PM | Comments (14)

Damaso Marte & Bernie Williams

From The Post -

The Pirates and Yankees have talked about a trade that would bring lefty reliever Damaso Marte to the Yankees for outfielder Kevin Thompson. If Thompson is dealt, Bernie Williams could return as the fifth outfielder. Marte, 32 in February, is owed $4.7 million for 2007 and 2008. He could be protection against the Yankees losing Ron Villone and not signing Scott Schoeneweis.

Damaso Marte is tough on lefties.

And, this just could be the end of the Curse of Enrique Wilson - since the Yankees traded Marte to the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 13, 2001 for Enrique Wilson.

But, if this move means that Bernie Williams can come back for another year, I'm not thrilled with the total package. Bernie has only one talent left at this stage in his career - to be a DH against LHP. So, other than giving Giambi a blow against tough lefties, Williams serves no other purpose on the roster.

It makes more sense to have someome like Kevin Thompson on the roster to pinch-run late in close games and to serve as a back-up OF (along with Melky Cabrera).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:27 PM | Comments (15)

Anthony Claggett

Is he the Anti-Pavano?

From The Desert Sun -

In the last few weeks, Palm Springs High School alumnus Anthony Claggett has had a lot of exciting phone calls.

The latest came earlier this week, when Banana Republic hired him.

It was exciting for Claggett since this is his first retail sales job, and just second "real" job.

Not to put down Banana Republic, but Claggett admits the call paled in comparison to the other calls he's received the last few weeks.

"I'm really happy to get the job," Claggett said. "It still puts a smile on my face."

Last month, Claggett was involved in one of the biggest trades in this offseason in baseball. Claggett is one of three pitchers in the Detroit Tigers organization that was traded to the New York Yankees for All-Star Gary Sheffield.

Claggett was 7-2 with an 0.91 ERA and 14 saves for Class A West Michigan this season.

"I got a call from the Tigers, from (general manager Dave Dombrowski). It was quick," said Claggett, 22. "I answered the phone, and he thanked me for everything, and that I had been traded in a deal with Sheffield. It came as a shock.

"Then 10 minutes after that, (Yankees GM) Brian Cashman gave me a call. It was overwhelming. It was neat to hear from him. He just welcomed me and he was 'looking forward to having you here.'"

The Yankees were the favorite team of Claggett's father Herb, who idolized Mickey Mantle.

It is also the team of Claggett's favorite player, Alex Rodriguez.

"He was consistent all year long. He pitched a majority of the year with an ERA under one. He was baffling single A hitters," said Matt Walbeck, Claggett's manager for the West Michigan Whitecaps, which won the Midwest League championship this season. "He's a great guy to have on a team and was instrumental in helping us win the championship."

Claggett said he will spend his time this offseason lifting weights and will throw more as he gets closer to spring training. But Claggett was still going to have a lot of free time, so he decided he would get a job.

That doesn't surprise Walbeck.

"He wants to keep busy," Walbeck said from his home in Sacramento. "He's as down-to-earth as it gets, and at the same point, has a really strong future in baseball."

Working in retail, the difficult customers will prepare Claggett for dealing with the New York fans, he joked.

"I'm just trying to get a little extra spending cash and some experience," Claggett said. "I want to keep busy instead of lying around the house."

Reading this, I find myself liking this guy. He's now on my "to root for" list.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:01 PM | Comments (2)

Jolbert Cabrera

I just saw this in the Ledger -

In their search for a utility infielder, the Yankees are speaking to the agent for Jolbert Cabrera, who has played seven different positions over seven major-league seasons with the Indians, Dodgers and Mariners but hasn't played in the majors since 2004. The Yankees recently brought Cabrera in for a workout at their minor-league facility in Tampa.

"Brian called us, and they wanted to work him out because they hadn't seen him in a couple of years, and they wanted to take a look at him," Cabrera's agent, Oscar Suarez, said. "So we obliged them, and we'll see what comes out of it."

Jolbert is no spring-chicken. He'll be 34 next season. But, he can play both the infield and the outfield - which is always a plus in your 25th man. Still, if he's anything like his younger brother, in terms of his on-the-field modesty, he won't be one of my favorite Yankees (if they sign him).

Every time I see Orlando Cabrera all I can think of is "Mini-Manny-Wannabe." I say this with no reflection towards Orlando's talent - heck, we know he's hurt the Yankees enough - it's just that I find him to be so cocky that it's annoying.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:51 AM | Comments (6)

Do I Hear Thirty-Two?

The last record for most hits in a day for WasWatching.com was 25,262 - which happened on October 11, 2006.

Today, I just noticed that we had 25,458 hits (here) on December 3rd. (Yes, I don't check the counts everyday.) So, that beat the old record. However, I also noticed that we had 31,419 hits on December 4, 2006!

This is now the new record.

Not too shabby for a little blog that I decided to start 19 1/2 months ago. (And, to boot, there were 28,017 hits on 12/5 and 29,208 on 12/6. Clearly, we're now in the range where 25,000-30,000 hits a day is a reasonable expectation.)

Thanks to all for making this happen - and for your interest in WasWatching.com.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:45 AM | Comments (5)

Hub Hypocrites Extends Tentacles Into L.A. Too?

From the Times with a hat tip to BaseballThinkfactory.org -

The Boston Red Sox might think of the Yankees as the Evil Empire, but other people in baseball now seem to view the Red Sox as a team that feels it can operate outside the rules.

According to executives of several clubs, the Red Sox were a hot topic of private conversation at the general managers’ meeting last month and at the winter meetings this week. Several officials who work for Major League Baseball said there appeared to be good reason for the talk. Many of those interviewed did not want to be quoted by name because of what they viewed as the sensitivity of talking critically about another team’s conduct.

Exhibit A for the disgruntled is Boston’s signing of J. D. Drew, who walked away from the final three years of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, a move that his agent, Scott Boras, said was aboveboard and precipitated by the marketplace. The signing of Drew could lead to an investigation by the commissioner’s office into possible tampering by the Red Sox; one baseball official said the commissioner’s office would vigorously investigate the matter if it received a complaint, but added that no complaint has been forthcoming.

One general manager said that many people at the general managers’ meeting, after hearing that Drew would sign with Boston, urged the Dodgers to file a tampering charge.

“We haven’t reached a decision yet,” Ned Colletti, the Dodgers’ general manager, said by telephone yesterday before leaving the winter meetings in Orlando, Fla.

Others described Colletti as angry about the Drew development and said that relations between Colletti and Theo Epstein, Boston’s general manager, had become strained to the point where Colletti wasn’t returning Epstein’s telephone calls.

But, wait, there's more!

Club executives and baseball officials are also watching the Red Sox negotiations with Boras for Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Japanese pitcher, for whom Boston bid $51.1 million just for the right to talk to him.

They have observed as Larry Lucchino, the Red Sox chief executive, recently went to Japan to meet with Matsuzaka’s team, the Seibu Lions, for the stated purpose of establishing a working agreement between the teams. They have read with interest Boras’s view that there is no rule barring the Lions from sharing part of the posting fee with the player, thus making it easier for the Red Sox to sign him for less of their own money.

“No one can enter into an agreement that would circumvent the posting process,” said Lou Melendez, major league baseball’s vice president for international operations. “What I read would seem to be a way of getting around the posting process. The commissioner’s office would investigate. If you speak to the Japanese commissioner’s office, which we have, any kind of arrangement, this or any other, would not be allowed.”

In 1966, the Braves broke rules in signing Tom Seaver and he was made available to all teams willing to match what the Braves paid for him. I would love to see MLB do the same now with Drew and Matsuzaka - just to watch Larry Lucchino have a meltdown.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:38 AM | Comments (11)

December 07, 2006

Cash: My Dinner With A-Rod

From SI.com -

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman sent a strong message to Alex Rodriguez in a long dinner meeting Wednesday night with agent Scott Boras: "We love you, and you're not going anywhere.''

A big stir was created at the Winter Meetings when Cashman and Boras hopped into a car and drove off, and the main purpose of the dinner was to discuss how they can best support Rodriguez, who had an off-year by his standards in 2006 when he batted .290 with 35 home runs and 121 RBIs and was occasionally the target of booing in the Bronx.

The meeting was designed to reaffirm the Yankees' intention not to pursue any outside interest. On the menu were different ways to support A-Rod.

More from the AP -

Brian Cashman had dinner with Alex Rodriguez and Scott Boras, selected a player in the winter meeting draft, then headed home Thursday.

Cashman wound up paying for dinner with Rodriguez and Boras.

"Cash and I were going to have dinner and Alex was in the area, so I gave Alex a call," Boras said. "After Alex left, Cash and I discussed business."

Well, I suppose it's a better way to kill some time than going to see a Broadway show with Carl Pavano.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:55 PM | Comments (2)

Sure, They Moan About The Death Star, But....

An e-mail came in today alerting me of Maxim's Worst Sports Arenas report. They listed Fenway Park as the second worst and, about Fenway, they wrote:

Sure, they've gussied up the joint in recent years: seats on the Green Monster, elimination of the trough urinals, etc. Still, you can slap as much rouge on an old, decrepit whore as you'd like; She still remains, at her core, an old, decrepit whore…in this instance, one with ghastly sightlines and seats designed to accommodate the 5'4", 125-pound hominid of the 1820s.

Sure sounds like the swamp planet of Dagobah, huh? Maybe Lucchino was right? Nah.......

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 05:26 PM | Comments (8)

Josh Phelps

In the news today:

1B JOSH PHELPS was selected by the New York Yankees off the Orioles’ AAA Norfolk roster. Phelps was signed by the Orioles as a minor league free agent on November 10.

More on this via Peter Abraham -

Brian Cashman on Phelps: "Our scouts saw him a lot in the International League and liked him. He'll compete for a job out of spring training. It's worth a look."

I love this move. I remember reading about Phelps in Fantasyland. He's a bright guy. He was on the cover of the Baseball Prospectus 2003 book, if I recall correctly. Maybe that was a curse? Still, he's hit LH-pitching in the past. This could be a sleeper move for the Yankees. At the worst, there's no downside whatsoever. It's a smart pick-up.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:09 PM | Comments (13)

December 06, 2006

Lilly Coming?

Jim Baumbach reports -

Just bumped into Ted Lilly's agent, Larry O'Brien, in the lobby. He said he just informed the Blue Jays they are out of the running. "It's down to the Cubs and the Yankees," O'Brien said. And now we're going to see whether the Yankees' interest in Lilly is for real. O'Brien said he is planning to meet with Brian Cashman before 6 p.m.

Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Lilly, and Igawa.

Sounds like Pettitte wants to stay home and Pavano will be sent packing.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:18 PM | Comments (21)

Yanks Would Like To Move Giambi & A-Rod?

From Joel Sherman -

Alex Rodriguez is not the only star the Yankees asked to consider waiving a no-trade clause.

The Yanks also put out feelers to Jason Giambi's camp to see if the slugger was willing to be moved, a person familiar with the Yankees operations told The Post. However, as with A-Rod, the Yanks were told Giambi has no desire to waive his no-trade provision because he wants to stay and win in New York.

In addition, the person familiar with Yankee operations said the main reason the Yankees deigned not to pursue a deal for Rodriguez was because he informed the team that he would not agree to a trade. Aware of that, the Yanks then began telling other clubs and media they would not deal Rodriguez because they valued him as a player and did not think they could get equal value in return. If A-Rod had agreed to consider a trade, the Yanks would have, at least, explored the market thoroughly, with the knowledge that the Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and White Sox were all very interested.

Looks like the only way the Yankees will ever move these two is to add some "SCB" to the post-game buffet spread.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:49 PM | Comments (8)

Jorge Cantu

From Ken Rosenthal -

The Devil Rays are getting significant trade interest in second baseman Jorge Cantu, who missed six weeks with a broken left foot early in the season and never regained full mobility.

If the Rays traded Cantu, they could play unsigned Japanese infielder Akinori Iwamura at second and go with either B.J. Upton or Ty Wigginton at third.

Cantu, 24, had 28 homers, 117 RBIs and an .808 on-base/slugging percentage in 2005, but declined to 14 homer, 62 RBIs and a .699 OPS last season.

Cantu was pretty open this summer on how he just got down on himself. Maybe his numbers in 2006 where just the product of an injury leading to a slump. Sort of like Lou Piniella in 1975?

How about New York trading for Cantu to be the Yankees first baseman in 2007?

Yes, he's a bit of a hacker. But, the Yankees reportedly are willing to play a free-swinger at first because having "the incredibly patient Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu allows them to take a less patient hitter if he can provide the needed pop that they lack from the right side."

Plus, Cantu can also provide some back-up insurance around the entire infield - in a pinch.

The question is: What would it take to get the D-Rays to trade Cantu, even coming off a down year, to the Yankees? Tampa will probably ask for the moon. But, would they take someone like Jeff Marquez? If you're the Yankees, is that price too high?

I don't have the answers to this one. But, I'm digging the question for the moment, nonetheless.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:32 PM | Comments (4)

Market, Drew, Impact On A-Rod's Call

We know that the remainder of Alex Rodriguez' current contract looks like this:

2007: $27 million - $7 million paid by Texas
2008: $27 million - $8 million paid by Texas
2009: $27 million - $7 million paid by Texas
2010: $27 million - $6 million paid by Texas

But, we also know that A-Rod’s team must increase the salaries for 2009 and 2010 by the higher of $5 million or $1 million greater than the average annual value of the non-pitcher with highest annual average value.

However, after the 2007, 2008 or 2009 season, A-Rod can void the remainder on his contract as well.

When I see the money that players like Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Gary Matthews Jr., Julio Lugo and Juan Pierre got this winter as Free Agents - and the money that Aramis Ramirez and J.D. Drew got this winter after taking the option to void their contracts - I have to wonder, what would Alex Rodriguez get in the open market after 2007?

Could A-Rod get a deal for ~$118 million over 5 years? It seems like he could, no? Would he trade $91 million over 3 years (with his current contract) for that - in order to get more years?

Think about this for a minute. Say Alex has an MVP type year for the Yankees in 2007. Would not that be great for him - to hit the open market, with the money being thrown around now, with two "MVP-type" seasons in the last three years under his belt? On the flip side, say that Alex has a terrible time next season in the Bronx. Would not the option to void come in handy - to get away from the Yankees and go to a team that he would choose? And, based on the money out there now, he would not have to move to the poor house to make that happen.

One way or another, it seems like there is something for A-Rod to gain by opting out of his contract in 2007. Yes, he would lose on the short-term (to an extent) to gain on the long-term. But, as a player, you have to consider that you could get hurt in 2008, 2009, or 2010 - and then those three years could be your last pay-days.

Personally, I would rather have someone give me $4.75 a day for the next 5 days than have someone give me $6 a day for the next 3 days. And, for A-Rod, this is what it might come down to - in terms of a decision.

If the open market was not as crazy as it has been this winter, I could not see Alex voiding his contract. $30 million a year for three years is sweet. But, knowing what we know now, I have to wonder about it.

This coming season could be Alex Rodriguez' "walk year" in the Bronx. I hope he puts up huge numbers in the process - because the Yankees will benefit from it.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:45 AM | Comments (17)

December 05, 2006

Joined At The Bad Elbow?

I just noticed how, to date, Andy Pettitte's relative career pitching results match up to that of John Smoltz, at the same age. Stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

It was just about at this point in his career that Smoltz made the move to closer - which he did for 3 full seasons before returning to starting (again) for the last 2 years.

Regardless of his role, and his elbow, Smoltz has been an effective pitcher since his 34th birthday. Did some "time off" as a closer help ensure this long life? It's possible.

Maybe this is why Pettitte was thinking about taking some time off now - to see if that might have improved his chances at a longer career, by looking at the big picture rather than just the next one frame?

In any event, it is interesting to see that Pettitte matches Smoltz (at the same age). Some like to discount Pettitte's career by saying he was an average pitcher who got lots of wins because of the great teams behind him. Perhaps now, by seeing the Smoltz-comp, those same folks will look past the win totals and the winning percentage marks and see that, boiled down to his relative pitching results, Pettitte has been just as good, stride for stride through age 34, as someone who many feel is a Cooperstown Candidate (Smoltz).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:44 PM | Comments (18)

Pettitte By Week End?

From Tom Verducci -

The Yankees' search for a starting pitcher that will keep them from having to bank on a healthy Carl Pavano and Randy Johnson is narrowing. As Vicente Padilla came off the free-agent board, Ted Lilly and Barry Zito get little more than cursory interest from New York and Jason Schmidt still doesn't see East Coast dollars to override his West Coast preference, the Yankees have found the ideal solution: Andy Pettitte.

The free-agent left-hander, who is strongly considering retirement, is said to be intrigued with the idea of returning to pinstripes and "could possibly have a deal by the end of the week" with New York, according to a baseball source familiar with the negotiations.

Pettitte has been considering retirement ever since he felt physically and mentally spent after a season during which he churned out 214 1/3 innings while working through elbow pain. But his 2.80 ERA after the All-Star break was the eighth best in baseball, the third-best among all left-handers (trailing only Johan Santana and Jeremy Sowers).

Pettitte is intrigued about ending his career where it began and returning to a more intense environment than he found in Houston. With 186 career wins, he also would have the chance of winning his 200th game. Only three left-handers in history have won 200 games with a better winning percentage than Pettitte's .641, and all of them are current or future Hall of Famers: Whitey Ford, Lefty Grove and Johnson.

One month ago, I wrote: "I love Andy Pettitte. I know that he can still be an effective pitcher based on age, talent, etc."

Nothing has come up to change my opinion on that. I would be thrilled to see his signing come true.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:01 PM | Comments (43)

A Parking Spot For Pavano?

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution -

The Braves have heard some offers for starting pitcher Tim Hudson, who hasn't met expectations in two seasons and is owed $32 million over the next three seasons.

But they wouldn't trade Hudson unless they could get another proven starter.

How about Carl Pavano and T.J. Beam for Tim Hudson? I wonder if John Schuerholz would bite on that one? It would save him some money too.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:45 AM | Comments (5)

Posada In The Catbird Seat

Jorge Posada, on 2008 and beyond, via Newsday -

Posada is entering the final year of his contract and said his agent has not yet begun renegotiations with the Yankees. "After 2007, I'm a free agent. I can test the market if they want me to," he said with a grin that comes with the security of being a desirable commodity. "My agent will look into it, but we'll test the waters if we have to."

Jorge will be 35 next season. Yes, there's a ton of logic that says you do not sign a 36-year old catcher to a multi-year contract. So, part of me says that the Yankees should consider letting Posada walk.

However, there's no one in the Yankees pipeline close to being ready to catch in the big leagues, full-time, in 2008. Michael Barrett will be a free agent after 2007 - and Pudge Rodriguez might be as well - but, there's no wealth of catchers expected to be available when Jorge's contract is up.

The Yankees have no choice but to re-sign Posada after 2007 - and Jorge's camp knows that. They could make things very hard for the Yankees come the winter of 2007-08.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:09 AM | Comments (5)

December 04, 2006

A Good Story Always Gets You In The Door

Don't think so? See "Jeffrey Maier's job hunt."

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:46 PM | Comments (2)

Making A List & Only Checking It Once On Cashman

I was asked today to take a stab at ranking Brian Cashman's best and worst moves since he became Yankees G.M. on February 28, 1998. So, here goes - a quick reaction on what I think were his nine best/worst trades and signings - listed in date order:

Nine Best Trades

February 18, 1999 - Traded Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd, and David Wells to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Roger Clemens.

December 22, 1999 - Traded Hideki Irabu to the Montreal Expos. Received players to be named later and Jake Westbrook. The Montreal Expos sent Ted Lilly (March 17, 2000) and Christian Parker (March 22, 2000) to the New York Yankees to complete the trade.

June 29, 2000 - Traded Ricky Ledee, Jake Westbrook, and Zach Day to the Cleveland Indians. Received David Justice.

July 21, 2000 - Traded Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena to the Chicago Cubs. Received Glenallen Hill.

December 7, 2001 - Traded David Justice to the New York Mets. Received Robin Ventura.

July 31, 2003 - Traded Robin Ventura to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Bubba Crosby and Scott Proctor.

July 31, 2003 - Traded Brandon Claussen, Charlie Manning (minors), and cash to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Aaron Boone.

February 16, 2004 - Traded a player to be named later and Alfonso Soriano to the Texas Rangers. Received Alex Rodriguez and cash. The New York Yankees sent Joaquin Arias (April 23, 2004) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

July 30, 2006 - Traded Matt Smith, C.J. Henry (minors), Carlos Monastrios (minors), and Jesus Sanchez (minors) to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle.

Nine Worst Trades

February 1, 1999 - Traded Mike Lowell to the Florida Marlins. Received Mark J. Johnson, Ed Yarnall, and Todd Noel.

July 1, 2002 - Traded Scott Wiggins to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Raul Mondesi.

July 5, 2002 - As part of a 3-team trade, traded Ted Lilly, John-Ford Griffin, and Jason Arnold (minors) to the Oakland Athletics. Received Jeff Weaver from the Detroit Tigers. In addition, the Oakland Athletics sent a player to be named later, Carlos Pena, and Franklyn German to the Detroit Tigers and the Detroit Tigers sent cash to the Oakland Athletics. The Oakland Athletics sent Jeremy Bonderman (August 22, 2002) to the Detroit Tigers to complete the trade.

December 13, 2003 - Traded Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden (minors), and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Kevin Brown.

December 16, 2003 - Traded Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate to the Montreal Expos. Received Javier Vazquez.

July 31, 2004 - Traded Jose Contreras and cash to the Chicago White Sox. Received Esteban Loaiza.

December 3, 2004 - Traded Kenny Lofton to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Felix Rodriguez.

January 11, 2005 - Traded Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, and cash to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Randy Johnson.

February 16, 2004 - Traded a player to be named later and Alfonso Soriano to the Texas Rangers. Received Alex Rodriguez and cash. The New York Yankees sent Joaquin Arias (April 23, 2004) to the Texas Rangers to complete the trade.

Yes, I know that I listed the A-Rod trade twice. I think the jury is still out on that one - therefore, I'm hedging my bet here.

Nine Best Signings

September 29, 1998 - Signed Alfonso Soriano as a free agent.

May 5, 2000 - Signed Chien-Ming Wang as an amateur free agent.

November 30, 2000 - Signed Mike Mussina as a free agent.

January 5, 2001 - Signed Robinson Cano as an amateur free agent.

December 19, 2002 - Signed Hideki Matsui as a free agent.

February 4, 2003 - Signed Jon Lieber as a free agent.

August 3, 2004 - Signed John Olerud as a free agent.

January 21, 2005 - Signed Aaron Small as a free agent.

January 3, 2006 - Signed Johnny Damon as a free agent.

Nine Worst Signings

June 2, 1998 - Signed Drew Henson in the 3rd round of the 1998 amateur draft.

December 7, 2001 - Signed Steve Karsay as a free agent.

December 13, 2001 - Signed Jason Giambi as a free agent.

December 17, 2001 - Signed Rondell White as a free agent.

February 6, 2003 - Signed Jose Contreras as an amateur free agent.

January 6, 2004 - Signed Kenny Lofton as a free agent.

December 20, 2004 - Signed Carl Pavano as a free agent.

December 20, 2004 - Signed Tony Womack as a free agent.

July 14, 2006 - Signed Sidney Ponson as a free agent.

Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com for the transaction data.

Keep in mind that I did this quickly. Looking at it now, I feel like I should have gotten El Duque and Tony Clark in there on the good signings too. And, the Gabe White and Felix Heredia moves should be in there somewhere as well - on the bad side.

And, yes, I do hit Cashman twice on Contreras - for signing him and then trading him. That probably should just be one or the other.

I did not give Cashman any credit for signing Gary Sheffield - since everyone knows that was all Big Stein. I also left off Shawn Chacon since that was just pure luck.

I would love to hear from others regarding how these lists should be crafted. Please use the comments section for that. Thanks in advance!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 05:26 PM | Comments (18)

Winter Meetings Media Bloggers

Just about every local paper has someone blogging from the Winter Meetings this year. Here are some links for you one-stop shoppers:

The Journal News
Newsday
The Post

If I ever win the Lotto, maybe I'll be blogging from the Winter Meetings as well - someday.

Update: The Boston Globe has a meetings blog too.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:57 PM | Comments (2)

Jason Giambi - Bridge Builder

Last week, there was a mention about Jeter & A-Rod hanging out together in Vegas during the Thanksgiving weekend. At that time, I thought that was odd - given reports of the two of them not having a great relationship.

Today, the Post confirms, from Jeter, that both he and Rodriguez were together in Vegas, as it was reported last week.

Jason Giambi was at that get-together with Jeter & A-Rod. Giambi lives and trains in Vegas and parties there all winter.

Did Jason arrange for this meeting? Makes sense - considering it was on his turf. Good thing Giambi was not studying at Stanford back in 1997.

If things improve for the Jeter and A-Rod relationship, and then Rodriguez starts to feel more comfortable in New York, perhaps we will look back to this Vegas meeting as where it all began? And, if that happen, Giambi deserves an assist.

Who would have thought that one of Giambi's biggest contributions to the Yankees would come in the form of an "assist"?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:27 AM | Comments (7)

Sturtze Joins Braves

It's a one-year deal.

Sturtze really was not that good - although he had his moments. But, he was a stand-up guy in public and someone who was willing fight for his teammates. He was a Nick Fotiu type (in a way) - even if he grew up as a Red Sox fan.

Still, there was no reason to keep him around in the Bronx - so, I wish him well in Atlanta.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:45 AM | Comments (6)

December 03, 2006

Can Hughes Be This Half-Century's Exception?

Since so many feel that Philip Hughes will pitch for the Yankees some time next summer, I began to wonder:

How many pitchers, since 1961, have thrown at least 15 IP in a season for the Yankees where they were 21-years old, or younger, and how did they perform?

Thanks to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, I have the answer:

As you can see, in the last 46 seasons, only 9 pitchers, age 21 or younger, have ever taken toe to the rubber for the Yankees where they logged 15 innings or more in a season.

And, only 5 of those 9 pitched in more than 10 games in that "21 or younger" season for the Yankees. Let's look at that party of five:

Bill Stafford is the pick of the litter here. But, he had some experience coming into that 1961 season - since he also pitched for the Yankees in 1960 as a 20-year old. By the way, Stafford was cooked by the time he was twenty-three.

Gil Blanco closed out some games for the Yankees in 1965 as a 19-year old and was traded on June 10, 1966 with Roger Repoz and Bill Stafford to the Kansas City Athletics for Fred Talbot and Billy Bryan. He pitched for the A's in 1966 and then never again.

Bill Burbach was pretty much a one-season-and-done pitcher for the Yankees in 1969 (when he was 21). He had cups of coffee in 1970 and 1971 with New York too. But, his lack of control was his downfall.

Most know the Gil Patterson and Jose Rijo stories. Both were rushed to the majors by New York. Patterson was ruined and Rijo was traded (but eventually became good).

Basically, if Hughes pitches 15+ innings for the Yankees in 2007, and does well, he'll be the first Yankees pitcher to do that (at that age) in nearly a half-century.

Those who are counting on him pitching in the Bronx in 2007, and helping the team, should consider how rare that would be in Yankeeland.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:50 PM | Comments (14)

Cash: No Panic, We Have Young Arm Support

From the Daily News -

[Brian Cashman says] "With the young pitching we have now, we've got a lot of guys in the mix that give us the opportunity not to be desperate in the free-agent market."

"We've got a lot more support in terms of our young pitching than maybe we've had," said Cashman.

He immediately mentioned Philip Hughes, the Yankees' top pitching prospect, and Humberto Sanchez, the righthander acquired from the Tigers in the Gary Sheffield trade, as potential starters - though he did say that he wants to be "careful" with Hughes, who hasn't pitched above Double-A.

Cashman also said that he considers Scott Proctor, who had a breakthrough season in 2006 as a reliever, a viable option as a starter next season.

"He has enough weapons to be a starter or reliever," said Cashman.

The Yankee GM also spoke highly of Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, young pitchers who were impressive at times making emergency starts last season.

While I agree that it makes no sense to be "desperate," I cannot agree that the Yankees have that much "young pitching" which is major league ready.

Yes, Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner have their feet wet. But, the next big league pitch that Hughes and Sanchez throw will be their first. And, the Proctor experiment is just that - an experiment (which is no lock).

I want to believe that this is just Cashman setting up a smoke screen while he still works towards getting another pitcher for the rotation - or one that could slide in once Pavano is gone/hurt or if Unit can't rebound from his injuries.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:52 AM | Comments (10)

December 02, 2006

Wild Man Villone

I have to say, I'm not sure why the Yankees would consider bringing back Ron Villone in 2007. Using the opposite angle of some analysis that I did yesterday, here are the Yankees pitchers with the worst command in the Joe Torre Era, via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:

Villone has a huge heart and lots of guts. But, in terms of mastering the strike-zone, he's seen better days.

The last thing the Yankees need is a 37-year old RP, who does not throw hard, and who cannot command his pitches. There's just no upside there - and if Villone was not left-handed, he probably would not get a second look.

There must be a better option than Villone, somewhere, at this point.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:46 PM | Comments (7)

Vermont Man On Ruth Quest

From the Bennington Banner -

Harold Rowe's time machine is a baseball.

Its leather cover is scuffed and tattered, its red stitches frayed. But such wear is to be expected, says Rowe, from something that has travelled so far.

For if his faith is justified, this life-long area resident has in his possession the greatest lost treasure in the history of the game, the most sought-after piece of memorabilia in existence, baseball's own Holy Grail.

Harold Rowe believes that Babe Ruth's called shot landed in his sock drawer.

The story of how Rowe came to find his baseball is rather ordinary, even if some of the details have been clouded by the passage of time. Following his retirement after 24 years on the road as a salesman, Rowe and his wife Audrey became fixtures on the local tag sale scene.

At one particular sale back in 1988, Rowe found a cardboard box full of plastic ice cream containers, which he figured to implement in organizing the various nails and screws that were cluttering up his garage.

It wasn't until several months later that Rowe went through those containers, and found an old baseball stashed in the bottom of one. "I've never been a baseball fan, so I had no idea what it might be," he said. "I stuck it in my sock drawer, and left it there - untouched - for the last 18 years."

What brought Rowe's ball back out was a March 26 article in USA Weekend magazine, titled "Baseball's Lost Treasures." In the article, sports memorabilia experts revealed the "top five Holy Grails of America's pastime," and what these missing artifacts would likely fetch in today's frenzied open market.

At the top of the list, with an estimated value of $2 million, was the Babe Ruth called-shot baseball. Suddenly, Harold Rowe was very much interested in the baseball in his bureau.

"Since the day that article came out, there isn't a day that goes by when I'm not looking into it," said Rowe of his ball. "I've studied it and studied it, photographed it, researched it. For the last 10 months, I've spent every day on this sort of treasure hunt."

He fully intends to keep up his quest for validation, hoping that science can provide the authentication that the industry's experts cannot, or will not. He wonders whether the ball can be carbon-dated, or have some sort of special infrared dye applied to it that will bring out even more clues as to its origin.

He is sure that someone somewhere has the means to confirm the idea that keeps him up at night, hunched over his slide viewer, studying every square inch of his baseball over and over again.

"I know in my heart that this is the ball that everyone is looking for," Rowe said. "I've stared at it for hours, and it still gives me goosebumps.

"People are quick to say this ball is not the real thing, but I think that's a mistake. If nobody believes in this thing, it's never going to be found."

Shoot, I would just be happy to find the "La Lob" ball that Yankee Dave LaRoche used to whiff Milwaukee's Gorman Thomas during the second game of a double-header in the Bronx on September 9, 1981.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:13 AM | Comments (3)

December 01, 2006

Moose & Boomer: The Chief & Larrabee In Yankees History

In a recent WasWatching.com reader comment, "baileywalk," asked "...what were the top ten power-control numbers for pitchers in the modern era?"

That got me thinking - and heading to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. If I had to offer an answer to that "command" question, here would be my answer:

While I expected to see Schilling in the top ten, I am surprised to see Mr. Sock Stain finish # 1 in this ranking. Big ego, big mouth, and big command for ol' Curt.

Back to the "thinking" item, I decided to take this a step further - and look at just Yankees pitchers in the modern era - and this is what I found, using the same rules:

Lieber and Candelaria were not Yankees for very long. So, to me, clearly, Mike Mussina and David Wells have been the best pitchers in Yankees history in terms of having command.

Moose and Boomer were teammates on the 2002 and 2003 Yankees - and 2003 was the last season that the Yankees had a really good pitching staff (and the last time the Yankees won a pennant). No shock there.

Here's some fun - what happens if you only look at Yankees pitchers with at least 800 IP for New York? The top ten:

George Mogridge? Never heard of him before this exercise.

Funny, if you look at his career stats, you'll see that the Yankees made a big mistake when they traded Mogridge on December 31, 1920 for Braggo Roth. Not "Buhner" bad - but, a pretty stupid move.

Lastly, what if you drop it down to just 50 IP for the Yankees? See this:

While it's interesting to see how close Wetteland and Rivera are here - and that Chris Hammond made the list - it's flat out chilling to see Carl Pavano at # 9.

I just hope if the Yankees trade Pav-Dog that it works out better than that George Mogridge deal.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:12 PM | Comments (7)

Get Your Wallets Ready

Pete Abe breaks the bad news:

The very best seats at Yankee Stadium are going to cost nearly three times what they did last season.

The team announced its 2007 schedule today and with it a dramatic increase in ticket prices for premium seats. The "field championship seats" that are closest to the field will cost $300 in advance and $400 the day of the game. Those same seats were $115 and $113 last season. Those are the first four rows.

A total of 24,000 seats will cost the same as last season. Those are bleacher ($12) and tier reserved ($19) seats.

As for other seats:
Main box: $58 in advance, $63 day of game
Loge box: $55/$60
Tier Box MVP: $60/$65
Tier box: $40/$42
Main reserved MVP: $66/$71
Main reserved: $40/$42

And I thought last year was bad.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 05:17 PM | Comments (17)

D-Mat To Be Free Agent?

From Pride of the Yankees (with a hat tip to the comments section at Bronx Banter) -

...what I heard from the same source who is close to negotiations that what will happen is that Selig, Boras, and Seibu have a deal in place, where Boras pays Seibu $25 mil (1/2 the Red Sox bid) and he owns the rights to Matsuzaka, and puts him on the market BY X-MAS for the highest bidder, and Selig has signed off on it...

That's too wild to be true. Right?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:09 PM | Comments (19)

Unit's 2006 LD%

From The Hardball Times Stats Glossary -

Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time.

OK, now, for 2006, if you look at all "qualified" starting pitchers in the American League, who had the best (meaning the lowest) LD% in all the land?

Randy Johnson.

I never would have guessed that one. Maybe there was an element of unluckiness to Johnson's 2006 pitching results?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:38 PM | Comments (13)

Julio Zuleta

From the Times (with a hat tip to BaseballThinkFactory.org) -

When the Yankees attend the winter meetings next week in Orlando, Fla., there will be an intriguing first baseman for them to meet at the Walt Disney World Dolphin hotel.

His name is Julio Zuleta, and he played 79 games for the Chicago Cubs in 2000-1. What makes Zuleta interesting, though, is his production in Japan the past three seasons.

Zuleta, 31, hit 109 home runs to tie for the most in the Pacific League. According to his agent, Gene Casaleggio, he has hit seven home runs and batted .273 against Daisuke Matsuzaka, the star pitcher who is negotiating with the Boston Red Sox.

“He’s a guy who’s seen Matsuzaka and had success off him in very big playoff games,” Casaleggio said. “He’s seen him more than anybody.”

Clearly, Zuleta has mastered Triple-A and the Japanese league. He has nothing to prove there. For what it's worth, in his brief major league career, he did mash left-handed pitching.

But, for the record, this will not be a second "Cecil Fielder" finding thing. Zuleta will be 32-years old next season. Big Daddy was 26 when he came back from Japan.

The Yankees should not break the bank for Zuleta. But, he could be an upgrade on Andy Phillips. It's worth checking out if the details all fall into place.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:31 AM | Comments (11)