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November 12, 2006

Trade For A Starting Pitcher Coming?

At this date, the Yankees 2007 starting rotation appears to be:

Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Pavano & Rasner.

That's not exactly a rock-solid group.

Given how many few, good, starting pitchers are in the Free Agent market this winter - and the contract demands and location preferences of said pitchers - New York is most likely not going to be able to go out and buy a starter (or two) this off-season.

This all makes me think that a trade for a starter is coming in Yankeeland - much like the Yankees traded for Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez and Roger Clemens in the past.

The big questions here, of course, are: "Who?" and "At what cost?"

Posted by Steve Lombardi at November 12, 2006 09:33 PM


Most plausible:

1. D-train: it's going to be pretty stiff though, Melky, Clippard, + 2 more good reliever prospects at least IMHO

2. Burehle or Garcia: doesn't make a whole lot of sense though, Garcia is guy that looks like he'll get rocked. if it's him then i'd think 2-3 second teir pitching prospects

Guys i would love and just might be had.

Hong Chih Kuo: i have a feeling by this time next year people would regret they didn't try to go for him. he is, if right, very very close to Scott Kazmir in ability and talent. he could be had, espically if a A-rod trade happens. (A-rod + reliver prospects for Laroche, Kuo , Toby Hall + James Loney.) it's fantasy that aint gonna happen, but the gut feeling is that we would end up thinking damn i want him on our team by the end of next year.

Honestly, i think we should just make a play for Randy Wolf, he's a guy i like too, and could be a serious bargin right now, i don't think we need someone REALLY long term right nwo, but enough maybes to make sure someone do pan out.

Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 12, 2006 10:07 PM

It could be anyone really, but, on November 12, that's not a terrible base (with Hughes, Sanchez, and . I really think that Pavano will be back next year. It's at the point now where his career is on the line and I think that he'll come through as a slightly better than league average starter.

I would not like a Vazquez-Johnson-Brown type deal. Teams these days don't trade number one starters and the Yankees would have to overpay for a purported "number one" starter. Lilly or Wolf would be worthwhile #4 starters.

Still, that being said, I would make Chen's Willis trade if Cabrera was the centerpiece.

Posted by: jonm [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 12, 2006 10:23 PM

I dont know if that's true Steve. They may not be gearing up for a trade. They have a very nice collection of pitching prospects, and Cash has been saying how valuable young pitching is. I dont think he's just going to give some of it up. I feel we're more likely to see a SP FA or 2, e.g. Zito, Schmidt, Lilly, Meche.

If we dont get Matsuzaka, I think we should go for Zito. He might be overpriced, but he NEVER misses time, and is a good to very good established AL pitcher (and a lefty to offset our impending future RHP heavy rotation).

Posted by: Travis G. [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 12, 2006 10:34 PM

I don't know, Steve. I see what you're saying, but I don't get the feeling that Cashman is going to lose in this game of chicken. Trading Melky, Clippard, and another prospect for Willis would be a mistake. Willis is good, but he ain't THAT good. In fact, I have a feeling that he and Zito would put up fairly similar numbers if both pitched in the AL East. So why not just buy Zito and keep the kids?

With that said, I would be shocked - SHOCKED - if Pavano pitched for more than half the season. Assume he won't be available at all, and if he is...gravy.

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 12, 2006 11:23 PM

My gut feeling is Pavano will surprise people and pitch relatively well, better than what Jaret Wright did this year. but i agree that at this point we can't count on him in our planing.

For the Willis trade, i'm kind of skeptical because i think Florida can get a better package for Willis if they really do want to shop him around. and in reality, if they are indeed serious about running a baseball team there in the future, i don't see why they would want to trade him unless it's a can't miss super CF prospect (which Melky is not)

I still think Kuo is probably the most undervalued potential super lefty out there right now.(of course, my judgement on him is probably quite biased for obvious reasons ;)) we are talking about a guy that clocked into the upper 90s at the age of 18... his injury history is scary, but the same can be said of just about every other great lefty out there except Johan Santana.

Another potential possiblity is for Cash to not pull the trigger in the offseason but wait to see what happens during the season... for example if the Cubs bomb again as i feel they probably well, they will be open to a Carlos Zambrano trade...

Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2006 01:08 AM

Kuo is already in the Dodgers' rotation - why would they want to trade him away? The Dodgers are unsettled in the OF but the one thing they don't need is some "prospects" for one of their starting pitchers.

Posted by: RICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2006 04:51 AM

I can't count on Pavano until the end of the 2007 season, late in October. The past two years have made me very leery of expecting him to pitch and not get injured two days later.

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2006 02:28 PM

I would not go near any NL pitchers. Zito is the best choice but will be expensive.

I agree with Yu Hsing Chen above who says that Cash would be wise to sit tight & see who might come available midway through the season.

Posted by: zgveritas [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2006 08:44 PM