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November 13, 2006

2007 Randy Johnson Projection

Doing some quick and dirty guessing, here's what I think Yankees fans should expect from Randy Johnson in 2007 - assuming that his back will allow him to pitch for just about a full season:

32 Games Started
192 Innings Pitched
230 Baserunners Allowed
165 Strikeouts
4.80 Earned Run Average

That's not very impressive - unless it's the effort from your fourth starter. Price-tag and ROI aside, if the Yankees can get three decent starters in front of Johnson next year...maybe the Big Unit will not be the Uber Albatross next year.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at November 13, 2006 10:40 PM


You know what? I'd be satisfied with that stat line from Unit in '07. Considering he'll most likely miss the entire first month of the season - and since his skills have been in decline since '05 - I'd say those numbers are fairly optimistic.

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2006 11:24 PM

Who cares what he does during the regular season? He's had two winning seasons here, but has flat-out sucked two straight years in the playoffs. Johnson is one of the main reasons we lost to the Angels. He got BOMBED by a team Shawn Chacon held down.

Then he got whacked by the Tigers.

So two years in a row Johnson failed to do what the Yankees paid him so much money to do: win playoff games.

If the Yankees want to be in a position to win in '07, Randy will be the fifth starter and not even appear in the playoffs.

We bought a used Ferrari with 200,000 miles on it, and its engine fell apart just as we started to drive it. The only problem is that we bought it as our main car and paid full price.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2006 11:35 PM

That could be the biggest nut here - allowing Unit to be # 4 and also making him skip a turn in the post-season. I'm not sure Joe has a pair big enough for the skipping part.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 13, 2006 11:41 PM

Nothing unusual about RJ being mediocre in the divisional series; he has a history of doing that.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2006 01:02 AM

I think you are way too pessmistic on that prediction.

His FIP this year was 4.37 , he's perhiphals were still above average, what he did have was letting 40% of the guys that got on base score against him, which is simply way out of the league and his career norm (league norm would be closer to 30% while RJ's career norm is 25%)

If he is healthy, i expect at least a low 4s ERA from him, if not better.

last time he had back problems was 03, when he put up a 4.26 ERA and only pitched 114 IP (the first time he pitched under 200 IP in ages) what did he do after he had surgery ?

04: 245IP 2.60 ERA

Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2006 01:03 AM

The problem with your prognosis, Yu Hsing, is that you're basing it on what happened three years ago, when Unit was a spry 40. As we all know, he'll be coming off another round of major back surgery this spring, and how his 43-year-old body rebounds from that is anyone's guess.

Posted by: brockdc [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2006 01:44 AM

The difference between 40 and 43 is? is it the same reason why teams were going nuts about signing Roger Clemens earlier this year?

Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2006 05:00 AM

I'm guardedly optomistic about Unit. His back was bothering him most of last year; now that it is fixed I think he'll pitch better. And if he misses the first, say, six weeks of the season he should be fresher for the post season.

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 14, 2006 09:20 AM