WasWatching.com

If you're asking about next year, obviously you keep ARod without getting a lot back. With the same basic cast next year sans ARod, I really doubt that the Yankees are even an 88 win team. Based on ages, who on the Yankees is going to get better next year? Wang doesn't have room for improvement and Melky has no position. Cano for a full season will probably be better. Hughes might help out some in the second half. But, Jeter won't put up MVP numbers again and everyone else will just be a year older.

Then again, we can probably pencil in 15-18 wins for Pavano. He'll be our difference-maker in 2007 . ;)

How are those stats reliable? I don't think you can simply tally runs and say how many wins a player helped you achieve. Stats are important, but they don't tell the entire story. The only way to know who does what is with your own eyes.

I don't know how many games A-Rod actually won for them, but he struggled mightily most of the year. What if you hit a grand slam in the eighth inning of a game your team is winning by five? You get four runs on your resume that year, but do they mean anything? These numbers don't take into account when the runs were produced. The numbers you gave the other day indicate that A-Rod didn't produce when his team needed to.

I wouldn't want to go into the year with Cairo playing third. And the Yankees wouldn't. They would certainly get someone better than average, and maybe someone very good.

And since Alex had 24 errors and lost a few wins with them (including a Moose start or two) you might want to factor that into the equation.

I'm not a big fan of this analysis here Steve.

Alex Rodriguez posted a VORP of about 50 this season, or 5 wins over a replacement player.

Any trade of Alex Rodriguez would involve talent coming back our way.

If we, for example, traded Alex Rodriguez in a 3 way deal for Mark Teahen and Ervin Santana, we would be gaining in the win department. A full year of Teahen is worth about 40 VORP, while Ervin Santana (30 VORP) would replace Jaret Wright (19 VORP).

That's a bit of faulty logic, Steve.

You're expecting that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays will remain stagnant and the AL East as a whole would be a weak division.

For the past five seasons, the AL East division winner has averaged 99.4 wins a season. In that time, the second place finisher has tallied an average of 93.6 wins.

Subtracting 8 wins when the margin of victory in the division is an average of five wins is a very big deal.

As for me, I'm totally in bed with keeping A-Rod - have been all season and will continue to be. His production, regardless of whether you think he's clutch or not - is too valuable to give up.

This season, a down one for him, he posted 35 homers and 121 RBIs... since 2000, just one other 3B had done that in a season in the majors: Vinny Cash-stealer in Colorado in 2004.

I think it was BPro this year that said it best, he may not have the flashy clutch, close and late numbers, but A-Rod's good at producing runs early, which isn't as sexy as hitting'em out late, but it's just as essential.

For the Yankees to have a successful season next year, they need Alex Rodriguez and need him to perform well.

- McNally

Based on that, then a resounding "NO" I don't want to see ARod traded.

If you would have told me at the begining of the year that the Yanks could win a division with 88 wins I would have said, "Hell NO". Would I rather win 97/98 games? Absolutely.

I guess we can't have our cake and it too. If we trade ARod then we have to get someone north of 150 in run production. Anything less than that then we are getting into dangerous territory. If we can't get that then we have to stay with ARod.

......UNLESS.......we get that version of Steve Lombardi that was in the zone fielding ground balls at SS. Is he still available? I forgot the tune, but we can move Steve-O to 3rd and play his favorite tune to make sure he stays in the zone and snags every ball hit his way. I'd say that version of Steve would be good for -150 runs produced. :)

baileywalk,

There's been a tremendous amount of work done building on the basic Pythagorean model that Steve cites here. In sabermetrics, the translation from runs to wins has essentially been "proven" and is universally accepted.

Baseball Prospectus uses something called VORP which stands for Value Over Replacement Player. 10 units of VORp is roughly translatable to a win. VORP for everyday players does not measure fielding. But, for the sake of an example we can compare ARod and Figgins. ARod's VORP was 50.4 in 2006; Figgins' was 14. At bat, that means that there is a 3.5 wins difference between ARod and Figgins. Figgins is an even worse fielder at 3B than ARod (who did have a terrible year afield) so that 3.5 win difference understates the real difference.

Let's say that they trade ARod for Figgins and ESantana. Santana would replace Wright and the difference in VORP overall there is 11.5 (30.2-18.7) Overall, the Yankees still lose 2.5 wins with that trade and that's not accounting for the fielding difference between Figgins and ARod.

These numbers are artificially precise, but the basic point is that the Yanks lose that trade.

I would do an Angels trade if Kendrick is substitued for Figgins (assuming Kendrick can play 3B) and Shields is thrown in. Kendrick has an upside that Figgins does not.

Wouldn't it be better to use a replacement level player, one that is league average? Even so, I don't see the Yanks dropping 10 games because of Rodriguez. They lost Matsui & Sheffield for an extended period of time, and won two more games this year than they did last year.

Anyway, there are a lot of other factors that go into a team's W-L record. The year after Rodriguez left, the M's won 116 games. The year after the Yanks won 114, they added Clemens and "only" won 98. When Griffey went down in '95, the M's won games at a rate close to the percentage they played all season.

I see no problem with moving Rodriguez, and that goes for anyone on the roster. But move him because the trade works from a baseball standpoint, not because he "doesn't fit in" or "he can't handle ny" or whatever.

Here's a couple questions for the trade A-Rod crowd?

What gives with Ervin Santana? Why the hardon for him all the sudden?

Why would we trade a significant player of any kind to Anaheim - a team we'd be likely to face in the postseason and perhaps even have to battle out for a playoff spot that already gives us trouble?

I would much rather be assured of 97 wins and the division title and worry about the playoffs, which are always a crapshoot, then dipping down a level at third base and worry over the division. Remember, the Yankees post-2000 have a better winning percentage than the 96-00 teams.

Well, Raf already made the point, so I won't repeat it.

In the game of baseball, the WHEN is very important. I just don't think giving a total of a person's stats can accurately reflect their worth (or how many wins they add or subtract).

Things ebb and flow too much in baseball. Early in the year, there was no one else I wanted up than Giambi. But later in the year, when he hurt his wrist, he was awful. But looking at his stats at the end of the year he could have saved/cost the team five, ten, fifteen runs, but it doesn't tell you the reality of his season. There's a human element to baseball that stats cannot always reveal.

That's just my opinion.

SMinDC,

I'm not part of the Trade A-Rod Crowd, but I would probably consider taking Santana if Kendrick as the key was included. Santana's probably a 3-4 starter tops with that K rate. There are ways to get a ESantana-type without trading ARod and I would prefer that, all things considered.

Just out of curiosity, can you figure out an A-Rod trade that you would make? It's an interesting exercise if nothing else.

There's only one Santana in the league that A-Rod should be traded for and it ain't Ervin.

If A-Rod does get traded, I don't see Cashman sending him to an AL playoff contender. He's more likely to go to an NL team, maybe Houston.

Based on the Pythagorean numbers or VORP, we would have lost the AL East in 2004 and 2005 without A-Rod and maybe this year too because Boston wouldn't have packed it in at the end of August. I'd rather put up with the soap opera than accept three 2nd place finishes.

An A-Rod trade I would make?

Well, if he had to be moved, I'd trade him out of the AL first of all, so that leaves just 16 possible destinations. Then I'd delete the Mets, so that's just 15 possible destinations.

Looking at those 15, here's a few deals I'd consider.

To Washington for Ryan Zimmerman and John Patterson.
To Philadelphia for Chase Utley and Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd + a prospect.
To Milwaukee for Ben Sheets and Bill Hall or Rickie Weeks.
To Chicago (N) for Carlos Zambrano or Derrek Lee and a front-line prospect.
To Florida for Miguel Cabrera and a non-Willis young starter

Generally, if you were to trade A-Rod, I expect the Yanks to deal Rodriguez and cash - put get back real premium talent in return. If you can't do that, then why bother?

And since I don't think you can get the sort of return you'd need to justify a trade, why even consider a trade.

Wow. My little saber-doodle got some great dialogue going! Thanks all.

Really, I was just thinking out loud with my "math" - I'm not claiming that I had the final answer.

But, in any event, there's been some great comments on this one - thanks to all!

SM,

You've convinced me to reject my proposed Kendrick deal; I was lukewarm and now I wouldn't do that.

The other day I mentioned Garza, Cuddyer, and Neshak for ARod. I ran that by a friend of mine who is a Phillies fan, and thus has no stake in the matter, and he said that he wouldn't do that if he were the Twins!

I don't think that the situation makes it possible to get real premium talent in return.

By the way, it might be amusing to run those proposals by on a BBTF thread. The howls from the Yankees-haters would be worth it.

To Washington for Ryan Zimmerman and John Patterson.
To Philadelphia for Chase Utley and Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd + a prospect.
To Milwaukee for Ben Sheets and Bill Hall or Rickie Weeks.
To Chicago (N) for Carlos Zambrano or Derrek Lee and a front-line prospect.
To Florida for Miguel Cabrera and a non-Willis young starter
---------------------
The only ones that MIGHT be considered are the Nats and Brewers. The others would never happen. I hear Hamels is untouchable, and to ask for Utley too! I dont know about Gavin Floyd.
You're asking the Cubs for their best pitcher AND hitter.
Florida's offense is built on Cabrera, and they depend on their young starters.

Myself I'd trade Arod straight up for Cabrera. He's just 24, plays in a pitcher's ballpark in a pitcher's league, and puts up stellar numbers. Apparently his D varies, but he didn't commit as many Es as Arod.

Why are people high on making a trade with Anaheim? Here's why: 1. they're one of a few teams that wouldn't require the Yanks to pay part of Arod's contract (being in the LA market); 2. they have almost TOO many young prospects and need to make room; 3. they're looking for offense. I've read that Ervin Santana could be anywhere from a #2 to #4 starter. Throw in an Aybar, Kendrick or Wood, and just move Cano to 3b (which he's familiar with). Plus, Kendrick played some 1b, so he could switch with Giambi. I dont want Figgins.

Yes, Arod had very nice overall stats, 35-121. But look at the cons: 24 errors, 140 k, 22 gdp, 1-14 LDS, (last i heard) 2nd worst % of getting men in from 3rd<2 outs, very expensive contract, and a shitload of media hype.

I said this in the other column accidentally. Going 8 wins from Arod to Cairo is a lot. But why Cairo? He is a below avg 3b. I'd think an avg 3b would produce at least 120 runs, so instead of 8, it's 6. Then throw in a good pitcher (in a trade), and you might be above what you have with Arod's production.

One more thing, Also account for Arod's 24 errors, which (as bailey said) accounted for at least 1-2 losses.
(why can't I just edit my previous posts?)

Don't forget, those of you who keep pointing out that ARod is the top AL 3B in 2006 at #29 overall, that he's the 5th-best 3B in the NL.

In the 2006 VORP list, #1 through #51, there's 7 NL 3B and 1 AL 3B.

The NL must have a bunch of "defensive specialists"...

...or to restate that, "that he'd BE the 5th-best 3B in the NL if he were traded today."

Sorry about that.

Most of the trades mentioned here are not realistic or not that palatable.

I know the Padres have a lousy system, but since Peavy had a bad season AND a bad post-season, they might trade him (and they need a third baseman). Would anyone do that deal? Peavy and a prospect for A-Rod?

I would be tempted to trade him for Ben Sheets, because Sheets is my favorite pitcher to watch, but he's probably too injury-prone.

These proposed trades are funny. Why would Arod want to play in Washington? Why Milwaukee?

Oh yeah, I forgot - the trade doesn't have to make sense to the player who has the right to decline the deal.

RICH,

I'm not saying those are trades the Yankees could make - I'm saying that those are the type of trades I'd make for A-Rod.

Remember, I'm staunchly of the opinion that the Yankees should keep A-Rod.

Any proposed trade, as RICH pointed out, would have to include Alex's willingness to play there. So the actual teams are limited, all else being fantasy.

We will have Matsui for all 2007 so he will make up a good share of what would be lost from Alex's production plus whoever plays 3rd. Probably even then. Heck, the Yankees won four WS without that kind of production at 3rd.

Pitching and defense, not high octane players, won then. This team can't get to but one WS since 2002, eliminated three times now in the ALDS. I notice that many are now falling back on the crapshoot theory. That isn't why you have such a huge payroll. Excuses are for losers.

Why are people high on making a trade with Anaheim? Here's why: 1. they're one of a few teams that wouldn't require the Yanks to pay part of Arod's contract (being in the LA market); 2. they have almost TOO many young prospects and need to make room; 3. they're looking for offense. I've read that Ervin Santana could be anywhere from a #2 to #4 starter. Throw in an Aybar, Kendrick or Wood, and just move Cano to 3b (which he's familiar with). Plus, Kendrick played some 1b, so he could switch with Giambi. I dont want Figgins.
--------------------------------------------------
Agreed 100%. Aybar and Wood should be ready for next year and Kendrick is already ready. Weaver or Santana would both be huge additions to the pitching staff. And there is no way I'm afraid that Alex will beat us in the playoffs to be honest...

Health isn't guaranteed. Who knows, maybe having Sheffield & Matsui for a full 2006 may have made a difference. Who foresaw either, if not both going down this year? Maybe a healthy Giambi may have made a difference in 2003 & 2004.

And it's not guaranteed that anyone will be able to play a full season for whatever reason.

I've always said the playoffs were a crapshoot. If they weren't, the Yanks would win every year. If they weren't, the team with the best record would win every year.

Amendment to my post.
Arod LA: Reason 4. it's one of only a few places he would accept a trade to (again, being in the LA market).

meanwhile, I did some research on the Yanks clutch hitters this year.
- Jeter and Abreu were the best hitters with RISP - Damon and Sheffield the worst.

- However, Damon and Sheff were the best in close and late situations - Arod and Matsui the worst.

- Jeter and Giambi were the best hitters with a full count - Bernie and Sheff the worst.

- And Giambi and Cano were the best at getting the runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs, while Arod and Matsui were the worst.

click my name for details.

I'm cribbing this from another forum, but here are some of the prospects being mentioned as possibilities in any A-Rod trade:

From the Dodgers: major-league-ready third baseman Andy LaRoche, major-league-tested RHP Chad Billingsley (who came into the year as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball), LHP Scott Elbert (big-time lefty prospect).

From the Cubs: LHPs Mark Pawelek and Don Veal, RHP Sean Gallagher, and third baseman Scott Moore.

I don't know as much about the Cubs' prospects, but I'd do the L.A. deal in a second. You'd get a young replacement for A-Rod, PLUS two young stud pitchers. If Cashman can pull off that deal, he will set up the Yanks for years. Can you imagine a Hughes/Billingsley/Wang/Matsuzaka/Clippard-or-Elbert starting rotation?

I guess I can dream, anyway.

^
that would be sweet.

a good Arod article:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/numerical-nightmare/

That Yanks-Dodgers deal would be sweet. Would L.A. consider?

In spite of all the speculation A.Rod will be on another team playing ss. next year. Boras will convince him that his struggles are all related to playing 3b. Cashman will get a list of teams and go to work. We don't have to do it for him. He knows every player from every system.