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September 01, 2006
It's Oakland That N.Y. Should Be Watching
Because the A.L. Wildcard this year will come from the A.L. Central, as a Yankees fan, I am very interested in this race.
Right now, the Yankees would face the Wildcard in the ALDS - since they have a better record than the A's (who are in first place in the West.)
The Twins and White Sox are neck-and-neck now for the Wildcard.
Chicago has three concerns. First, they have to play a lot of road games from here out. Secondly, they have the play the Indians seven times still - and Cleveland would love to pay them back for last year. Lastly, the White Sox mostly face winning teams the rest of the way.
Minnesota has two concerns. In order, they are Francisco Liriano's elbow and Brad Radke's shoulder.
I think Radke will do whatever it takes to pitch since this season is it for him. Liriano is a different story. He's the future of the team. The Twins would rather punt this season than ruin him, long-term.
Since pitching is the name of the game, I'm thinking that the White Sox will take the Wildcard this year - mostly because of the Radke and Liriano situation - but it will be close.
This would make the 2006 ALDS series to be Yanks-Chisox and Tigers-A's.
The key here is the Yankees having a better record than the A's. It doesn't matter if the Yankees have a better record than the Tigers - because the Wildcard will come from the Central - in terms of the ALDS.
The Yankees and Tigers record only comes into play for the ALCS. And, if the Yankees play the Tigers in the ALCS, do you really think that Games 6 & 7 are even going to be played?
Of course, the A's could beat the Tigers in the ALDS and then they would advance to the ALCS. And, this is another reason why the Yankees want to have a better record than Oakland - to get home field advantage in the ALCS over Oakland (and avoid having to fly out twice to the west).
So, the Yankees concerns, going into the post-season, should be:
1. Win the A.L. East, and
2. Have a better record than the Oakland A's
and, then, maybe,
3. Have a better record than the Detroit Tigers.
This might be the best field, in favor of the Yankees, in terms of post-season chances in the last several years. Getting in good position helps. And, the key to that is having a better record than Oakland.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at September 1, 2006 01:34 PM
Comments
Hard to do by playing September callup's and resting the bullpen.
Which shall it be?
Posted by: Don ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at September 1, 2006 02:22 PM
Sorta like the last game of last season all over again, in some respects, by now it's a month long decision.
And, we know how they played that last game in 2005.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at September 1, 2006 02:31 PM
The team in this mix that has the best chance of beating the Yankees is the White Sox. Clearly, they think they can beat the Yankee (just like the Angels). Go Twins. Go A's. Go Tigers. The easiest road to the WS is through these three cities w/ or w/o home field. I said a while back the Detroit was getting ready to crumble and that the Yanks would have the best record around Sept. 19th (I actually ment to type the 9th). With Detroit facing LAA for three and the bottom three from Minni's pitching staff lined up against the good guys over the weekend...looks pretty good. Biggest issues for the Bombers will be 1) resting Mo (NOW so he has time to regain sharpness later in the month), Mussina coming back, A-Rod getting defunked. Finding out what Dotel & Farns can or can't do, and resting Proctor and Villone will also help. Jeter could use a day or two off as well, especially if the batting title looks out of reach. Any word on Cairo? Prefer him to Green.
Posted by: #15 at September 1, 2006 03:47 PM
I like giving Dotel the closer nod over Farnswoth for a couple of reasons - Torre has zero confidence in Farnsworth and it gets into his head. In that game against the Angels he was flat-out horrible. Dotel has been a closer, more than Farnsworth. He seems more confident, and although he's green this season, and hasn't wowed anyone, I think he can get three outs. It'll be interesting to see how we handle the Twins this week, that'll teall a lot about how accurate #15's predictions are. I do think we match up better against the Tiggers and the A's than the White Sox.
Posted by: Exit9 at September 1, 2006 04:08 PM
Based on the upcoming schedules and recent performance, I wouldn't be surprised to see Detroit end up as the Wild Card.
Posted by: christopher at September 1, 2006 04:16 PM
I dont like to look ahead, but im gonna go through our schedule to give myself a little piece of mind.
If we can win:
2 out of 3 from Minnesota/2 of 3 from KC/2 of 4 from Balt/2 of 3 from TB/1 of 4 from Bos/1 out of 3 from Toronto/ 2 out of 4 from TB/ and a combined 3 out of 6 in the final 2 series of the year against baltimore and toronto. That would give us 16 off our magic #.
We could potentially win all 3 from Minn/ all 3 from KC/ 3 of 4 from Balt/ all 3 against TB if Kazmir's not back/ 2 of 4 from Bos/ 2 of 3 from Toronto/3 of 4 from TB/ and 4 of the final 6 games of season. That would definitely get us in the playoffs.
Posted by: nysupremacy at September 1, 2006 05:24 PM
BTW, as of last night's games, if the Yankees cruise at .500 the rest of the way, the Botox will need to play .785 ball (22 of 28) just to tie. While most of us have written off the Chowdaheads, I just like reminding everyone that their season ended in AUGUST! They know it too, which is why Boomer will finish his career on the left coast. Expect the whining about all their injuries to echo through the Nation until April of '07. The Beckett trade doesn't look real smart right now, abd their acclaimed farm system hasn't produced anything like Cano, Melky, and Wang. Hell, other than "Private Pyle Papelbon", Karstens' better than anything else they've brought up.
Posted by: #15 at September 1, 2006 05:32 PM
# 15, you recognize about their farm system. Hmmm, why aren't there any people like you working on ESPN & only Peter Gammons and those that have their tongues firmly entrenched up the red sox ass. lol
Posted by: nysupremacy at September 1, 2006 06:27 PM
nysup,
Sorry, but I couldn't afford the pay cut.
#15
Posted by: #15 at September 1, 2006 07:54 PM
LOL #15
it was not meant to be an insult to you. Though they deserve to paid like shit, Im under the impression that they get paid well in exchange for their tongues up the boston teams' asses if they arent already. Id work there for pennies if I thought it would make a difference in changing the minds of other MLB general managers about ours and their farm system
Posted by: nysupremacy at September 1, 2006 09:41 PM
nysupremacy - please watch your choice of words when posting here. We try and avoid profanity and the like. If it's not something that you would say to someone that you've never met before, it's probably not suitable for here. Thanks.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at September 1, 2006 10:50 PM