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July 23, 2006

Route 66

There are 66 regular season games left in 2006 for the Yankees.

New York is currently on pace to win 94 games this season. Presently, the Yankees are in 2nd place in the A.L. East - 2.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox. Further, in the A.L. Wildcard Standings, the Yankees are also in second - 2.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox.

It all sounds good, doesn't it? But, there are problems.

The Yankees 4th starter in their rotation now is a 5-inning pitcher at best. Additionally, New York's 5th starter in their rotation is, well, who? Right now, it's Sidney Ponson - and that speaks for itself.

Additionally, with the exception of one month this year, the Yankees have performed like a .500 ballclub. Note their month-by-month records this year:

April: 13-10
May: 18-10
June: 14-12
July*: 11-8

(* July is to date)

So, what happened in May? First, Alex Rodriguez had an OPS of 1.031 for the Yankees in May. From an offensive standpoint, he carried the team on his back. Secondly, Jaret Wright - one of the weak links in the Yankees starting rotation - pitched lights-out in May (making 5 starts and fashioning an ERA of 3.25 that month).

And, this will be the key to the Yankees success over their final 66 games this year. They're going to need someone in their line-up to hit the snot out of the ball - like A-Rod did in May - and be a major force who can win games almost single-handed. And, the Yankees are going to need one more starter (outside of Johnson, Mussina and Wang) to make Quality Starts on a consistent basis over the next dozen rotations of the Yankees starting pitching staff.

Who are the candidates to get this job done?

On the hitting side, there's not many choices. It's either Giambi or A-Rod.

Damon and Jeter are the table-setters. Neither are true power-hitters. It's going to hard for either of them to be a one-man wrecking crew over the next 60-something games. Everyone else on the team - Posada, Cano, etc. - are batters who help (and not the type who can carry a team).

The Yankees are paying Jason Giambi $18 million this season. And, they're paying Alex Rodriguez $20 million (to go along with the $6 million that he's getting from Texas).

Combined, these two players earn close to one-fifth of the Yankees payroll. They need to start hitting like All-Stars on a consistent basis.

And, yes, I know that Derek Jeter makes $19 million this year. But, when your SS hits .342 with an OPS of .885, it's hard to get on his case about his production and salary.

On the pitching side, there's even less choices. Either Jaret Wright pulls some more rabbits out of his hat - or Brian Cashman has to trade for a starting pitcher to help his team. The Yankees have tried all the immediate internal answers to help their starting rotation and none of them have worked. It's time to get someone from the outside.

If Brian Cashman cannot obtain a decent starting pitcher for the Yankees over the next week, then he will have no one else to blame (but himself) when the Yankees win 90 games this season and miss the post-season.

Just getting Rodriguez or Giambi to go on fire will not be enough for the Yankees if they don't get a pitcher to do for them what Wright did during May - meaning give a decent start on a consistent basis.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at July 23, 2006 10:53 PM

Comments

Well, it's easy to say, "Brian, go get me a decent pitcher." It's hard to actually do. Every team in baseball wants another starting pitcher to add to their rotation. The Mets, Red Sox and White Sox sure do. No one gives up good pitchers anymore. It's not like the old days where smaller teams traded away their free-agents-to-be because of money concerns. And even if a team were to do that -- say to get a Willis or a Zito -- it would cost a ton of young players the Yankees can't afford to give up. If you want Cashman to give away Hughes, who will be ready by next year, then okay -- you can take your pick of which pitcher you want. But otherwise, how is he supposed to get this pitcher?

A little off-topic, but I'm curious about A-Rod's contract. He's only making twenty-five million this year, so obviously that math doesn't add up (he starts to make twenty-seven next year). But when he was traded here, the Rangers agreed to pay 67 of the 179 million left on the contract. I'm not particularly good at math, but 67 - 179 = 112. The Yankees have Alex for seven years ('04-'10). 112 over seven years is averaged out to be 16 million a year, isn't it?

I remember hearing at the time of the trade that the Rangers would be paying six mil a year of Alex's salary, which would leave the Yanks on the hook for 19 million and then 20 million. But if they really are paying 67 million of the contract, wouldn't that be a much more? (Six million a year for seven years is only 42 million dollars.)

Anyway, sorry to get off-topic, but I saw the contract figures and it didn't seem to jibe with the conventional wisdom about his contract that you read all the time.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 12:22 AM

Isn't it a little harsh to blame Brian Cashman for the Yanks' (potentially) missing the playoffs? He didn't shatter Hideki's and Sheffield's wrists! The Yanks are playing with woeful offensive production from their corner outfielders.

Sure, the pitching is a wreck, but we could overlook that if the Yanks had their Opening Day lineup out there everyday, IMO.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:12 AM

1. Part of making the post-season is managing the 25-man roster. It starts by Cashman getting 25 guys that can be used every day. Kris Wilson's gotta be swapped out for Matt Smith. Shawn Chacon, if he isn't in the team's plans, needs to be swapped out for TJ Beam or traded for other useful parts. If the GM is unwilling to control the things he can actually control, the team will be left in a difficult spot.

2. I've never understood why what someone makes enters the equation. The price a team was willing to pay for a player is an arbitrary sum outside and apart from things that happen on the field. Until someone puts together a formula that tells me that $________ should equal ____ HR or ___/___/___ AVG/SLG/OBP, then I don't give a rat's ass what someone makes. Ideally, every player makes $250,000, and fans get to watch games for $5 and eat $1 hotdogs. ARod's not having his best season but it's still above average. Did he earn his $25M last year? Does it take an MVP season to earn $25M? Was Barry Bonds underpaid from 2001-2004 when he won those MVP's? If we want to bitch about what ARod is or isn't doing, let's do that. But I would be hard-pressed to believe that Jeter's earning his $18M since, for a mere few million more, I'm getting the HR and OPS out of a shitty, career-worst season from ARod.

I'm sure people will jump all over this point but all I'm trying to say is let's worry about the stats on the field and not the stats on the balance sheet as they don't affect W's and L's that much in the Yankee universe.

3. I'm with Benjamin that being without Sheffield and Matsui is a big mitigating factor in where we are now. I won't blame Cashman for anything other than his indulgence of lousy players that don't belong on the team. Beyond that, the injuries to two of our biggest hitters cannot be minimized and has taken a toll on the offense and on ARod.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 08:41 AM

baileywalk - According to mlb4u.com, this is A-Rod's deal, FYI:

signed 10-Year deal worth 252M: - + he receives a 10M signing bonus that is paid between 2001-2005 in 1M installments each March and Dec 1st - + will make 22M in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 and then 26M in both 2005 and 2006 and then 27M in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 - + Bonuses he can receive for awards: 1st MVP: 500K 2nd: 1M 3rd+: 1.5M; MVP Voting 2-5: 200K MVP Voting 6-10: 100K; All-Star selection: 100K; Top Vote Getter in All-Star: 100K; Media Awards/All-Star Selections: 100K; WS MVP-200K; LCS MVP-150K; DS MVP-150K; Gold Glove-100K; Silver Slugger-100K - + - + bonuses he has earned: 100K for 2005 All-Star selection, 100K for 2005 Silver Slugger, 1M for 2005 AL MVP - + he can void deal after 2007, 2008 or 2009 - + he has a guaranteed salary increase for 2009 and 2010 by the higher of the following: 5M or 1M greater than average annual value of the position player w/ highest annual average salary - + 5M of 2001 salary is deferred and 4M each year of 2002, 2005, 2006, and 2007 salaries deferred - + 3M of 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009 and 2010 salaries deferred at 1.75% interest and paid each June 15 between 2016-25 - + the 36M in deferred money became an assignment bonus after trade to the NYY from TEX, which is paid: 5M + interest in 2016, 4M + interest in 2017 and 3M + interest in both 2018 and 2019, then 4M + interest in 2020, 2021 and 2022, and then finally 3M + interest in 2023, 2024, and 2025 - + Texas pays a total of 67M of his salaries from 2004 to 10: 3M in 2004, 6M in both 2005 and 2006, 7M in 2007, 8M in 2008, 7M in 2009 and 6M in 2010 - + Yankees defer 1M of his 2004 to 2007 salaries and make them payable on Jan. 15 2011 at 0% interest - + the deal includes a complete NO-TRADE clause - + hotel suite on road and right to host his personal webpage on yankees.mlb.com - + he has a five-year endorsement deal with Nike thru the 2009 season that pays him about 1M a year and provides him with "everything but his glove and his bat"

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 09:12 AM

FWIW, I'm starting to come to the camp of the Matsui/Sheff loss is killing us. Since A-Rod and Giambi don't hit like Manny and Ortiz, the Yankees need Matsui and Sheffeild to offset the difference. And, Bernie and Philllips are not Sheff and Matsui.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 09:15 AM

I think Steve's right about a deal. This is the first season since 2000 when the Yankees need to do something. Sure, Matsui and Sheffield's injuries were tough breaks, but that doesn't mean that the front office can slack off when the team needs another player or two.

The Daily News says that Phillips might be benched and/or traded and that Carlos Pena might be up. That might help a little.

Posted by: jonm [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 09:19 AM

Please do not leave Cano out of the equation of Sheff and Matsui and injuries costing us so much. That 3 .300 hitters and a ton of home runs. Those kinds of numbers just cannot be replaced.

Posted by: Scott Coulter [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 09:45 AM

Yeah, but, up until the Toronto series, the Yankees were doing great with Cano out.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 09:55 AM

This is the part that concerns me about A-Rod's contract:

------------
+ he has a guaranteed salary increase for 2009 and 2010 by the higher of the following: 5M or 1M greater than average annual value of the position player w/ highest annual average salary
------------

The way I'm reading that, it sounds like his salary will be $27M in 2009 and $32M in 2010. That is, his 2008 salary is $27M. He has a guaranteed increase of $5M for 2009, taking it to $32M. Then, in 2010, he has another guaranteed $5M increase, taking it to $32M.

Please tell me that I'm reading that wrong.

Posted by: Mr. Furious [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 10:44 AM

If we were doing great with Cano out, and Sheff and Matsui got hurt before he did, wouldn't that mean we were doing great with them out, too?

You can't discount losing Matsui and Sheff, but I also don't think you can use them as an excuse.

The team's problem is consistency. A-Rod has been inconsistent with his bat. All the so-called "second-string" guys have been inconsistent with their bats: Phillips, Cairo, Green, etc., etc. The only steady sources have really been Jeter, Mussina, Giambi's home runs (though not his overall offense), and Mo. Everyone else has run hot and cold, which is why the team probably hasn't really put together a great run yet.

I think the Cano injury was one that hurt quite a bit. See, it's not that big of a deal to carry Phillips for his glove IF you also have Cano in the lineup. But at this point, we're carrying a lot of gloves -- Cairo can't hit, Phillips can't hit, we're playing Green who can't really hit, and Guiel isn't anything special, and Melky is a singles hitter (more or less). There are a lot of guys in the lineup who don't do much with the bat. You may get a game or two where they do damage, but it's never an everyday thing.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 10:49 AM

"If the GM is unwilling to control the things he can actually control, the team will be left in a difficult spot." Can Cashman actually "control" those things? Let's remember that Smith and Beam and Veras were up with the team for a time already. That must have been Cashman's call. Well, who asked to have them swapped out for Kris Wilson and the veteran-to-be-named-later Ponson? Same with Kevin Thompson. The pattern is, again, veteran experience trumps young potential. The problem is, these veterans are only experienced at sucking. I blame Cashman for not being able to "control" his manager and thus, abdicating the prime duty of every other GM in the business...fashioning the 25 man roster to his vision. It's something Gene Michael did. And I'm sure Buck Showalter and he were not always on the same page. But guess who wins that confrontation?

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 12:25 PM

But Johnny how do you then explain the popular storyline of 2005 when Cashman put his foot down on Wang/Cano and forced Joe to use those two guys. I guess if you believe that version of the events, Cashman assembled the roster and forced Joe to go with that was given to him. If you don't believe that story then why would Joe bring up Cano over Womack and then not do the same thing this year with Beam/Smith over Chacon who he "clearly hates" as people like to say.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 01:46 PM

Yeah, but Womack had never played for him before 2005 while Chacon won 8 games for him last season and showed "guts." Still, Womack amassed over 200 ABs before Torre finally gave up penciling his name in the line-up card. And, last year, Torre was desperate with the team's under .500 first 2 months. He needed help way before the July 31st deadline. So trades were not even considered. Desperate times call for desperate measures, MJ, and the most desperate times call for a little trust and faith in our farm system. But, right now, we're only 2.5 games out of the division AND the wildcard. Mr. Torre isn't sweating it. The beads of sweat start cascading though when the deadline passes and neither Bobby Abreu or Alfonso Soriano is wearing pinstripes.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 02:35 PM

I think you got that right Mr. Furious.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 03:16 PM

What a ridiculous contract. That the alleged commissioner allowed such speaks volumes about Bud Selig. And no wonder the Mets ran as fast as they could from the issue.

Value to the Yankees is also diminishing over the years. Phew!

The Bosox wanted him for Manny and Cashman should have passed. That was my feeling then and now.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 24, 2006 06:48 PM