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July 13, 2006

Jon Lieber, In Center Square, To Block

Michael Silverman, in the Boston Herald, lists the Red Sox' "Seven things must happen for path to postseason." The first item is "Find a fifth starter" where it states:

Could a fifth starter be had in a trade? Names being fed into baseball’s rumor mill include San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt, Washington’s Livan Hernandez, Atlanta’s John Smoltz, Philadelphia’s Jon Lieber, the Cubs’ Greg Maddux and Oakland’s Barry Zito.

Hernandez and Lieber are the only two who will not require an exorbitant price tag in terms of the Sox giving up talent, but they come with performance questions.

The Yankees must block Jon Lieber going to the Red Sox. If Boston wants to trade for a pitcher, then New York should make sure that they have to trade for someone who is going to cost them some decent prospects.

The Yankees cannot afford to let someone like Lieber - who has been a capable SP in his last five seasons and someone who will not fold under pressure - join the Red Sox in exchange for so-so talent.

If the Yankees let Lieber go to Boston, it will be an even bigger mistake than letting him go to the Phillies in the first place.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at July 13, 2006 11:19 AM

Comments

This, Steve, is a fantastic point, and it cannot be made enough. First, the Yanks totally blew it with Lieber. While his numbers haven't been great in Philadelphia, Citizen's Bank Park is a HUGE hitting park. The Yankees could have had Lieber at a below-market price. Imagine a rotation with Lieber replacing Jaret Wright. Sounds good to me, right?

Anyway, the Red Sox simply should NOT be in a position to obtain Lieber, and the Yanks should do whatever it takes, short of selling the farm to block them.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 11:40 AM

Fellas, fellas, calm down. While I think Lieber might work for the Yankees as an innings-eater fifth starter, there's no need to get upset if we don't get him or if he goes to the Sox (though I don't want that to happen just because they need a fifth starter too).

Right now I would rather have Jaret Wright than Lieber. Lieber has won twenty games in his career, and he has the rep as a solid starter, but his success, based on the numbers, is pure luck. He works quick and he throws strikes -- he also seems to flirt with perfect games now and again -- but his numbers are average at best and disgusting at worst.

In his year with the Yanks he gave up 216 hits in 176 innings. His ERA was 4.33, his WHIP was 1.32 and the league hit .301 off of him.

Last year in Philly -- in that weak NL -- he gave up more than a hit per inning, had an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.21.

This year it was the same story. With an even higher ERA.

Yes, he could probably help the Yankees eat some innings out of the fifth spot in the rotation, but let's please dispel the myth that Lieber is anything special.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 12:53 PM

Don't forget about Park Factors.
RSAA paints a different story for him:

YEAR TEAM GS IP RSAA
2001 Cubs 34 232.1 10
2002 Cubs 21 141 5
2004 Yankees 27 176.2 2
2005 Phillies 35 218.1 9
2006 Phillies 12 72.1 -4

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 01:37 PM

How are the Yankees gonna 'block' the Bosox from getting Lieber? Give up Phil Hughes? This is unrealistic, Steve. Only after July 31, and if the Yankees still trail the Bosox, is any blocking possible.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 02:05 PM

I think that Yankees have to call up Pat G., and at the least, say, whatever you're trading to Boston, let us try and do a better deal for you.

Give up Hughes? No. But, if you have to add someone like Clippard to a package of Smith and Beam, well, you have to think about it - if it means keeping the guy out of Boston.

It's a seller's market and you have to be ready to deal with that.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 03:08 PM

Unless I've misunderstood and you're getting Abreu and/or Gordon back, there's no way I'd deal Tyler Clippard, Matt Smith, and TJ Beam for Jon Lieber, even if that meant that Lieber would go up to Fenway. I don't know what Clippard, Smith, and Beam will become in the big leagues but I'd rather find out than pay Lieber $7M for next year and have three fewer options coming from the farm. Not to mention, if the Yanks make that trade and don't make the playoffs, what the hell was the point?

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 03:26 PM

Trying.

When you have $200 mill on the table already, you have to at least try.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 03:33 PM

Steve, you lost me at adding "someone like Clippard to a package of Smith and Beam." While some people maintain that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, I still wouldn't send THREE good arms to Philadelphia just to block them from getting Jon Lieber. He's not that valuable. I would welcome him back to New York but at a reasonable cost.

The more interesting trade would be Burrell/Abreu+Lieber+cash in exchange for a slate of young players.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 03:39 PM

Headed to Washington in addition to Kearns are shortstop Felipe Lopez and right-hander Ryan Wagner. Headed to Cincy are right-hander Gary Majewski, left-hander Bill Bray, shortstop Royce Clayton, infielder Brendan Harris and right-hander Daryl Thompson.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2518314

Could the Yanks have used a guy like Kearns?
.274/.351/.492 16 HR 50 RBI

Posted by: Rich [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 03:56 PM

Kearns is an average bat at best. His park helps his numbers. But, this could mean that Soriano or Guillen are ready to go soon.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 03:59 PM

Benjamin - the difference for me is that I don't see Smith and Beam as arms that are that great. Useful, now? Yes. But, I see them as arms that could be replaced in a heartbeat.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:00 PM

Steve, you made me do a spit-take when you said to include Clippard in a package of Smith and Beam. Clippard is the second-best pitching prospect in the Yankees' system. He's a 21 year old who is coming around in AA and consistently puts up good numbers (including raking up strikeouts without a big-time fastball). It's debatable, but you could probably plug Clippard into the rotation right now and get more out of him than Lieber.

Clippard isn't as untouchable as Hughes, not even close, but he should only be traded for a big-time player (a Zito, a Willis, etc.).

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:06 PM

Game 7 of the 2006 ALCS. You want Clippard on the mound instead of Lieber?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:22 PM

Opening Day 2007, 2008, 2009: Do you want Lieber on the mound (or gone) instead of Clippard?

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:24 PM

Steve, et.al, since the opening of the GAB, Kearns has been actually better on the road than at home. I know, it shocked me too but I was looking at perhaps adding him to my fantasy team a week or so ago so I had checked his numbers.
2003-2005
Home: .248/.335/.428/.763
Road: .243/.346/.463/.809
This year
Home: .279/.333/.494/.827
Road: .269/.365/.491/.856

And I don't know how much you guys are into defensive ratings but he's apparently not that bad in right:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_and_league_200_innings/

This and a couple of spare parts for two relievers...and one of them has thrown more pitches than Scott Proctor this year (no, seriously).

Posted by: James Varghese [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:29 PM

"Opening Day 2007, 2008, 2009: Do you want Lieber on the mound (or gone) instead of Clippard?"

Philip Hughes?
Ian Kennedy?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:37 PM

James - still, by his RCAA totals, Kearns is just an average bat.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:38 PM

""Opening Day 2007, 2008, 2009: Do you want Lieber on the mound (or gone) instead of Clippard? Philip Hughes? Ian Kennedy?"

Semantics. The point is that trading three young arms for Jon Lieber, only because we'd rather not see him join the Red Sox, is the kind of futile trade that would put us in a bigger hole down the line. I'd rather miss the playoffs in 2006 than miss them in 2006 (with Lieber), 2007, 2008, and 2009 because we have no young pitchers in our rotation or no young pitchers to use as bait for better guys than Jon Lieber.

Honestly, I can't even believe you'd suggest trading three arms for Jon Lieber. I can't even believe anyone would suggest it (except for Boss Steinbrenner, back in his crazy 80's days).

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 04:49 PM

We 'blocked' the Bosox several times in the 1990's. One time it cost Tony Armas Jr.; whom the Bosox turned around and packaged to the Expos for Pedro. That deal revived a moribund organization. Without Armas the Bosox could not have obtained Pedro, but the Yankees could have.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 07:11 PM

Ironically, the other player in that Pedro deal was Pavano.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 13, 2006 09:12 PM