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June 16, 2006

Jim Callis Interview

On June 8th, Jim Callis, the executive editor of Baseball America, was interviewed in the Daily News, talking about Yankee prospects. Here's what he said about Melky Cabrera:

On Cabrera: "He's filled in nicely for them, but on a good team he's more of a fourth outfielder. I don't think he's a good center fielder, and I don't think he'll hit with enough power as a corner outfielder. If he's an everyday player for the Yankees in three or four years, I'll be stunned."

When I saw the interview, I shared here that I was going to contact Jim Callis to share a different opinion on Cabrera (mine) - with the hope that maybe it would allow him to consider some things that he may have been over-looking.

Jim not only replied to my note, but, he was also willing to address some other follow up questions that I had on Melky Cabrera and other Yankees outfield prospects. Further, he kindly agreed to allow me to share our exchange here. It went as follows:

WW: You've recently been quoted in the New York Daily News saying that Melky Cabrera is more of a fourth outfielder on a good team. If you had to project his long term worth in terms of a big league player that we "know" now, who would you pick? Stan Javier? Bobby Kielty? Someone else?

Jim Callis: Realize, and I think you do, I'm not saying Melky Cabrera can't play. There are a lot of outfielders starting on teams who would be reserves on good teams. I just see him as a tweener, as a player who doesn't have true corner power and can't play center field on a regular basis.

I see Cabrera, if he plays everyday, as a .280-.290 hitter with maybe 25-30 doubles, 15-20 homers and about 40 or so walks. That makes him, what, a .285/.325/.450 hitter? That makes me think of Juan Encarnacion with a better batting average, though Encarnacion ran better in his prime.

WW: It's interesting, if you look at the Yankees recent outfield "prospects," there's a string of 4th-outfielder (or "tweener") types. Gerald Williams, Ricky Ledee, Juan Rivera, and Marcus Thames come to mind. Is it possible that maybe Cabrera is being subconsciously grouped in with these others? In any event, does not the fact that he (Melky) is playing in the majors, and holding his own, at an age with most players are just in Double-A, mean that he's showing more potential than just a "Juan Encarnacion" type?

Jim Callis: I'm not subconsciously grouping Melky with those guys, and to be honest, most of them projected as regulars coming up through the minors. Age does play a part in evaluating a prospect, so Melky does get some credit for that. But he also has a .709 OPS (through June 14), so he's not close to excelling at the majors at age 21. Would he be up and playing regularly if not for injuries? No, he would not. Can he be better than Juan Encarnacion? Sure, there's plenty of time for him to continue to develop. But based on conversations I've had with scouts and his minor league track record, I don't see it. Cabrera played very well in Triple-A this year . . . but it was just 31 games. That's not enough to change my impression or to make me think the scouts I've talked to have underestimated him. I just don't see him having the home run power to be a formidable player on an outfield corner, and not one who would start for the Yankees for the long term.

WW: It's been interesting for me to watch Melky so far. On one hand, I can see from the data at BIS that his line-drive percentage hints that he's overmatched now, somewhat, at the big league level. But, on the other hand, I've seen him take PAs against pitchers like Curt Schilling, Jonathan Papelbon and Billy Wagner where he was able to control the K-zone to the point where he was able to work a walk in spots where there was no way that any of those pitchers wanted to give him a free pass. It's a fun debate. Could Cabrera at least be a decent placeholder for someone like Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson or Brett Gardner? Of those three, do you think any will be fast-comers?

Jim Callis: Cabrera has shown a lot of promise with his plate discipline in his brief time in the majors so far--it has been better than it was in the minors. And "placeholder" is probably the best way to describe him. Cabrera is the type of guy who can be a short-term regular before becoming a good reserve. I'm not sure he'll hold the job long enough for one of those guys to get there, though. I like Tabata the best of that group, with Jackson close behind. They're all interesting lower-level outfield prospects for the Yankees, but may not make a big league impact before late 2008 at the earliest.

WW: How about some of the outfielders that the Yankees drafted this year? Could Colin Curtis, Seth Fortenberry or Donald Hollingsworth be someone who could make it to the majors in the next couple of years?

Jim Callis: None of those guys project as regulars at this point. Curtis doesn't really have a plus tool and has regressed a little. Fortenberry has some bat speed and foot speed, but swings and misses too much. I really don't know much about Hollingsworth. The Yankees' best bet for an outfield regular out of this draft may be sixth-rounder Mitch Hilligoss, who can really hit but will have to move off of shortstop.

Some Yankees fans may not be happy to hear some of these opinions, but, you have to respect Jim for his willingness to share them. It is very much appreciated here. Callis is a stand-up guy in my book. How many people in his position would be willing to take the time to answer a question and then continue the exchange? I can tell you, from my experience, that the answer is "not many."

I still hope that he's wrong about Melky though. Maybe it's because, after seeing some many guys like Brian Dayett, Vic Mata, Dan Pasqua, Shane Spencer, Joe Lefebvre, Oscar Azocar, and Juan Bernhardt pass though the Yankees outfield (with the label of promise), that I just want one OF-hope (besides Bernie Williams) to stick? Or, maybe it's just because it's fun to say "Melky Cabrera"?

Regardless of the root cause, I will remain a fan of the promise that Melky provides - until I see a reason to move on. And, so far, I have yet to see that reason.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at June 16, 2006 08:17 AM

Comments

I'd like Cabrera to be very good and the 'wisher' in me hopes he can track Bernie Williams'path.

Then again, I'm not that good of an evaluator (I thought Jerry Kenney would be way better than Murcer).

It looks like he'll get the rest of the year to lay a foundation so we'll have some questions answered.

I don't see too much of a problem if he can hit 15 homers over a full season with his decent defense and OBP. If he can do that and if someone better comes along then so be it. It's nice to have options.

Posted by: RICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 09:29 AM

Thanks Steve. good interview.
And I hope Melky blossoms into the starting RF (or LF) for the Yankees in the next couple of years. If there's enough power in the infield, I don't mind a better defender in the outfield.

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 09:49 AM

Is it bad that I'm concerned both Matsui and Sheffield will come back in September leaving Melky off the post season roster?

Posted by: Jeteupthemiddle [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 12:10 PM

That would be a crime.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 12:33 PM

Great stuff Steve, hopefully Bubba will get bumped to make room for Melky on the postseason roster, but there's still 3+ months between now and then, so alot can happen.

Also, there may not be a person on the planet that knows more about prospects than Callis. Just because he doesn't see Melky as the next Bernie doesn't make him a moron.

Posted by: Mike A. [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 16, 2006 12:56 PM