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June 20, 2006

It's A-Rod Season!

I just noticed the following entry over at NoMaas.org -

06.19.2006 We should release Arod

2006 with Runners on Base:
.290 BA / .407 OBP / .556 SLG / .963 OPS

2006 with Runners in Scoring Position:
.299 BA / .444 OBP / .558 SLG / 1.002 OPS

2006 with Runners in Scoring Position, 2 outs:
.343 BA / .511 OBP / .600 SLG / 1.111 OPS

Even Yankee fans can be ignorant.

Related, Peter Abraham has an A-Rod "clutch" stat in his blog today:

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Alex Rodriguez has had four hits this season that have given the Yankees the lead in the seventh inning or later.

In all of baseball, only Minnesota's Justin Morneau and Michael Young of Texas have more with five each.

Not Derek Jeter. Not Big Papi Ortiz. Nobody else.

Around three weeks ago, I looked at A-Rod's numbers this season in a different light.

And, I thought that I would re-look at them today. Here's what I saw:

A-Rod's Batting Results - By Game Score

ARodClutch.jpg

Bottom line, this season, when the Yankees are tied, ahead, or trailing by three or more runs, Alex Rodriguez has been a monster with the stick - everything that the Yankees (and their fans) could expect from him (and maybe more).

Where A-Rod has been a no-show, this season, is when he comes to the plate and the Yankees are losing by 2 runs or less. These are the spots where one swing of the bat can get the Yankees back into the game, etc. Here, he's batting .087 this season - yes, oh-eighty-seven.

So far, to date, Alex Rodriguez has come to the plate 54 times this season where the Yankees were trailing by 1 or 2 runs (in that game) - and, in those 54 PAs, he has produced 4 hits (all singles) while striking out 13 times.

Yes, he was also walked 7 times out of those 54 PAs, and HBP once, but, given his lack of stick in those spots, his OBA is still near .200 in those 54 PAs.

To me, it's these "down by one or two" moments (or chances) that are what many see as "clutch" opportunities.

Batting with runners on? Or, in scoring position? If a guy gets a hit in those spots and the score is already 15-2 (in favor or against) is he being clutch?

As far as the hits that have given the Yankees the lead, so far, this season, A-Rod has 9 hits (regardless of the inning) all year where the Yankees were trailing by 4 runs or less. They have come in 63 ABs. That's a batting average of .143.

Again, I think this is what the fans see, this season, when it comes to A-Rod. They don't see the 9 times that he's come through in these spots - they see the 54 times that he has failed.

And, I have to wonder, how many times did he fail, in the seventh inning or later, where he could have given the Yankees the lead, as compared to the four times where he came through? I wish Elias Sports Bureau would provide those numbers as well.

For all we know, Justin Morneau could be 5 for 5 in these spots and Alex Rodriguez is 4 for 18? All of a sudden, that four doesn't seem so close to the five anymore.

There's still a lot of season to be played, but, to me, A-Rod has not been "clutch" for the Yankees this year. Hopefully, this will change over the next four months.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at June 20, 2006 11:29 AM

Comments

Great stuff. Yeah, that .087 stinks. And that .143 isn't much better.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 01:57 PM

I wonder how he hits when:

1) The moon is in retrograde
2) The Dow is up for that day's trading session
3) a six sided die thrown five minutes before the game comes up "4"

Only then will we know if he's truly clutch....

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 04:51 PM

There's an awful lot of slicing and dicing there...

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 04:59 PM

Not really.
Basically, it's hitting when the Yankees are losing, but close, and then in all other chances.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 05:01 PM

So those 17 rbi putting the team ahead aren't considered to be important? Even if 16 of those 17 rbi came on grand slams that's at least 5 games he was responsible for putting the team in a position to win.

I think your last paragraph shows your feeling - why did you bother to even go through the details?

Posted by: RICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 05:47 PM

Those stat's are the best I've seen to reflect, as you say, what i see when Arod comes to the plate when it counts. In those situations, when he could just get a single and knock a run or 2 in to get us the lead, I always yell at the TV, "it counts, Arod! Come on!". Then nothing. Nada. Zilch.

The runs always seem come when it doesn't matter. Those stat's bear it out. And, I don't think it's just this season. Not w/ the Yankees anyway.

Posted by: redbug [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 06:01 PM

This theory was both verified and debunked within the span of three innings!!! But wait!! He'll probably be back up in the ninth with the bases loaded, hold onto your hats!!!

Posted by: festus [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 09:25 PM

Festus this is not theory but fact as of this season.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 21, 2006 03:27 AM

Well, the NUMBERS are factual. But arguing over what cherry-picked statistics MEAN is a theory. And saying that statistics when behind by one or two are more meaningful than when tied is as theoretical as it gets.

Posted by: festus [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 21, 2006 04:25 PM

That trailing by one average of .056 says it all. he can't elevate his game. under pressure everyone gets better and he just stays the same. he has no heart. A-Rod has got to go. www.tradearod.com .

Posted by: YankeesFan [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 30, 2006 09:30 PM