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May 23, 2006
Unit Splits
On the drive home yesterday, I heard Michael Kay, on the radio, say something like "You can't give up on Randy Johnson. In the past he's been messed up to start a season - where he had to find himself later."
Curious about this, I checked the numbers. If you can trust the "splits" data at ESPN.com, here are the numbers for the Big Unit (expressed as first-half ERA & second-half ERA):
1997: 2.42 & 2.20
1998: 5.07 & 1.37
1999: 2.95 & 1.89
2000: 1.80 & 3.81
2001: 2.71 & 2.23
2002: 2.47 & 2.15
2003: 6.94 & 3.57
2004: 2.17 & 2.99
2005: 4.16 & 3.31
So, it appears that 1998, 2003, and 2005 support the Kay Theory. Or, do they?
Actually, you have to throw out 2003 - because Johnson only threw 23.1 IP in the first half of that season. This leaves 1998 and 2005.
I would probably throw out 1998 as well - as this was Johnson's last year in Seattle. And, he turned it on that season only once he was traded and then on a salary-drive (for a new contract).
Basically, last year was the only season, in my opinion, where Johnson was "messed up" in the first-half and then did better in the second-half.
Does that mean he cannot do it again? I have no idea. But, I do know that there's not this great body of evidence to suggest that this - meaning being out of wack and then figuring it out - is just something that happens to Johnson.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at May 23, 2006 03:42 PM