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May 10, 2006

End Of The Line For Big Unit?

Using the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, I decided to look at some stats for Randy Johnson.

Over the 12 years that passed (1993-2004) before he became a Yankee, clearly, the Big Unit was the best pitcher in baseball:

0001993to2004.jpg

In more recent terms, over the 5 years that passed (2000-2004) before Johnson came to New York, he was still the best pitcher in baseball (of anyone with at least 1,000 IP in that time):

0002000to2004.jpg

And, in the year (2004) before Randy Johnson joined the Yankees, he was the 2nd best pitcher in baseball (and darn close to being the best):

000_2004.jpg

So, whether you go back one year, five, or twelve, it's pretty safe to say that Randy Johnson was the best pitcher in baseball before joining the Yankees. So, then, why have Yankees fans not seen the best pitcher in baseball (in Randy Johnson) since New York traded for the Big Unit prior to 2005?

Could it be age? Randy was 41 in 2005.

While I could see this being the case, it's hard to believe that the drop in performance could be that big, in one year, just because of age. Or could it?

Well, it did happen to Dazzy Vance, Lefty Grove, and (to an extent) Walter Johnson. (All members of Cooperstown, who, like Randy Johnson, were the best hurlers in the game during their peak years.)

So, while I'm not saying for certain that we're seeing the end of "Randy Johnson" (as we knew him), it's possible that this could be the end of the road.

The Yankees might just need to come up with "Plan B" in terms of having an ace who can front their rotation. And, they should look at how fast Johnson got old when considering what to offer Roger Clemens.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at May 10, 2006 02:27 PM

Comments

It seems then, that it was the right thing to do in trading for RJ -- his stats 10/5/1 year before the trade were the best in baseball. I think he's hurt.

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 03:43 PM

But, is the hurt the result of age?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 03:48 PM

I dunno, he wasn't hurt the years before. Yes something can snap after years of working it -- I think David Cone said his rotator cuff was hanging by a thread after all the strain. Still, didn't Unit pitch 200 innings last year? But as I haven't examined him, and am not a doctor (don't even play one on tv) I really couldn't say.
Do great pitchers who are in the "twilight of their career" generally slide down gracefully and not have a sharp drop?

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 03:56 PM

I guess I see it another way regarding Plan B. I think we should give Roger whatever it takes to get him here as a rent-a-pitcher. There's nothing to lose by paying him a king's ransom since it won't require us to deplete our minor league system for three months of his services. And if he shows up and sucks like a man befitting his age, then all the Yankees have lost is cash and not valuable young players.

I don't think any of our minor league pitchers are ready to step into the rotation right now. I know we have some future studs down there and hopefully in 1-3 years time they show up and do wonderful things. But for right now, with RJ clearly not holding things together, we need to get Clemens out here. I truly don't see the downside in having Clemens come back.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 04:03 PM

The downside is that he'll more than likely...suck. There's enough data to demonstrate that, at least now and in recent seasons, the AL is the much tougher league offensively. While it's better than someone's idea about picking up Maddux in mid-season, I wouldn't hold out much hope that Clemens could be a difference-maker in the AL. Let him play out his days with the Astros and share a father-son moment with Koby in September. BTW, I would advise against bringing back Pettitte as well. For the same reason.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 04:17 PM

I agree with JohnnyC, but then what should be done? Should we go for Zito? I think Hughes is the asking price and that seems too much. What about Willis. That would be Hughes and even more. And his funky delivery screams injury. If not Roger, then who? Bring up Matt Smith, hope Pavano fills in well, and go to war?

Posted by: Nick from Washington Heights [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 04:22 PM

What Cashman should have been doing in recent years (and sort of did in 2005): combing through preferably American League 40 and 25 man rosters for cheap-to-acquire pitchers with upside who project to be able to handle an AL line-up. This requires a couple of things, though. Reliable scouting to locate candidates for trade and pitching coaches who can actually do what Rick Petersen says he can do (bring out the potential in an arm). I'm not sure about part 1 since Gene Michael is not as active as he once was but I'm pretty confident Guidry and Kerrigan can coach effectively. Cashman should ignore Torre's protests and bring in Chacon, Act II. Failing that, bring up Steven White and tell him to throw as hard as he can for 5 innings or bring up Tyler Clippard and give him a shot.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 04:37 PM

I agree with JohnnyC about Clemens. You can make the case that RJ was a better pitcher than Clemens over the last few years. Clemens' '03 season wasn't as good as Unit's '05 -- so exactly what do we expect to happen to Clemens if he comes back to the AL? Besides that one BRILLIANT pitching performance by Roger in Seattle (one-hitter, fifteen strikeouts) he hasn't come up big for us a lot in the post-season. Throwing ten millions dollars at him is pointless. I think the better idea is to not panic. If Pavano comes back and pitches decently, you'll have an ace (Moose) and three pretty good pitchers backing him up (Wang, Chacon, Pavano) -- and, in my opinion, a potentially good bullpen (if Sturtze and Small are run off).

Matt DeSalvo, Steven White and Rasner are all candidates for the rotation. DeSalvo will probably be the first to be called up. I think Clippard and Hughes are real long shots. Especially Hughes, since he'll be making only his second start in AA.

Again, I wouldn't panic. RJ COULD turn it around. The Yankees could pick up, as Johnny said, Chacon part II. DeSalvo could prove to be a major-league pitcher. I think it's too soon to set your hair on fire.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 04:56 PM

Piggybacking on what JohnnyC said and at the risk of being laughed at, what about Brad Radke? If the Twins continue their downward spiral, he's perfect for a salary dump and could be had for cheap (in terms of prospects).

Posted by: Nick from Washington Heights [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 04:59 PM

Interesting thought, Nick. Radke has been awful this year as far as results are concerned, so he might be cheaper than ever. He's still putting the ball over the plate (3 K/BB), probably just too much over the plate. He could turn it around, but at worst, a guy who can consistently throw strikes can eat innings for you.

Posted by: hopbitters [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 05:38 PM

I have to agree on those assements... getting Clemens is ok... if it wasn't for 20 million bucks... he is almost surely not going to be better than what Moose is now and might acutally be worse than what Wang and Chacon can put up if they stay around and/or improve on where they are now

On getting Willis it's the same kind of worry, he is not comming without the Yankee pretty much handing them their entire farm.. and is he THAT good? his stats so far are not good (granted he is a streaky pitcher that often have a couple of months where he is untouchable), and he is puting up that stats in the NL in a pitchers park .. (although the NL east offense is pretty darn good all around minus the Marlins) so far the other Marlin pitching exports have not really turned out that well...

Pavano is never healhty.. Burnett is shaping up the same way... Beckett is good but is he THAT good? his stats are comparable with a struggling Wang ... he's getting a ton more Ks but he is getting hit a ton harder...(2 more Ks per game on average or 3 less bases hit?.. that's around their difference right now)

In my opinion I agree that Cash should just try to pull another Chacon and look for a guy that will be decent and a steal... Johnson might still turn it around. (so far he had 4 good start and 4 bad starts... the splits between them are grossly huge.. he is still one of the best pitcher in the game during the 4 good start but look like complete shite the other 4) Wang may and probably will get better ... Moose is looking like a career year..Chacon is proving that he is no fluke and the bullpen as a whole is very good (if only Toree use it properly)

For a short series.. the Yankees are in trouble if the big unit's defective clone shows up .. (like last year) but for the season... we are still doing great.. and IMHO we actually have fewer holes and more depth than Boston ... (but Boston at the moment is definately better geared for the short series if the Schilling/Beckett/Wakefield trio can stay healthy and good)




Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 11, 2006 01:13 AM

Let's not even worry about Clemens. The guy spoke in front of some group of kids today wearing his freaking Astros jersey and throwing up the 'hook em horns' sign. He's staying put in Houston, the Yankees and Red Sox are just being used to drive up his price and feed his ego, which is fine, whatever.

His family has also given the OK for him to pitch again, like they would really tell him no. Can you imagine- "well, I was going to come back, but my youngest son says no, so that's it." I loved Clemens when "we" had him but his act has been on Jenny Craig for about 3 years now- yes, that means it's getting thin. I'll be here all night folks.

Posted by: JeremyM [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 11, 2006 01:17 AM

Wearing thin, excuse me...

Posted by: JeremyM [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 11, 2006 01:19 AM