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February 06, 2006

Roger Clemens Interest

I know that many want the Yankees to sign Roger Clemens for 2006. Two things concern me about Clemens as an AL pitcher this season:

1. He'll be 43 in 2006. In the days of the DH, Phil Niekro is the only pitcher in AL history to win 16 games at that age - and he threw a freak pitch. Most men, that age, in the AL, at that time, won maybe 12 or 13 games - like the 13 that Clemens won last year.

2. From July to October last year, Clemems averaged 6 IP per start. But, he feasted on pitchers in the NL to get those 6 per start.

On the past season, Clemens faced # 9 hitters 74 times last year and retired them in 64 of those 74 PA. That's like three free shutouts being added to your resume. In the AL, Roger will not face auto-outs once every 9 batters.

So, in the AL this season, Clemens will probably be closer to a 5-inning pitcher.

Considering the price that Clemens will command, is it worth it for a 5-inning pitcher who will probably only win 13 games? Even Carl Pavano should be good for that - where's the upgrade?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at February 6, 2006 05:11 PM

Comments

Signing Clemens would perpetuate a strategic mistake the Yankees have made the last few years...over-working an aging staff in order to win a division only to lose in post-season in great part because the staff, starters and bullpen, are dog-tired, pitching on fumes. While I am loathe to point out anything "smart" that the Red Sox have done (even, as in this case, inadvertently), it's crucial that Tim Wakefield has been able to eat up mucho innings, especially in the post-season. It's not something that pays dividends all the time but, hey, the Red Sox just needed to win once.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2006 05:45 PM

I agree with the point, but I wouldn't cite wins as a relevant stat. How many games did he give up 0-1 runs and either lose or get the ND? Wins are pretty irrelevant in measuring a pitcher's performance really, unless you're a Cy Young voter:) Just my two cents.

Posted by: JeremyM [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2006 06:52 PM

I concede SL's main point, that Clemens's body could hit the wall like the head-on collision at the end of the "Road Warrior". He's 43, it's a significant worry.

Re: his win total in '05, I don't have the #'s at hand, but I recall RC getting very little run support in 4 or 5 losses when he was pitching his best last year. Not likely to happen with this lineup.

Also, call me paranoid, but I feel Henry/Epstein lurking...and what scares me the most is that the media has written the Sox off in the Clemens derby.

Bottom line: (for me) he was the leading cy young candidate for 4.5 months last year. Make sure that these 3 things (and only these 3 things) happen:
1) Sign him, or
2) Make Houston pay 20+ million to sign him, or
3) He retires.

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 6, 2006 11:48 PM

Just an add on - in his last two seasons with the Yankees, combined, Clemens' ERA was over 4. So, now, three years later and as his age is amost half way to 50, what makes anyone think that he will do better than that, if he's back in the Bronx in 2006?

Don't get me wrong, if she wants to sign for $3 mill, sure, take a chance. But, not at something around $18 to 20 mill. That's just silly.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 11:20 AM

There's no way Roger would sign for just $3 M. He's got his rings, he's got first ballot stats; why go through all the training and practice for only a measly 3. Clemens giving 5 inning might not be so bad, just then throw in Small for 3 innings and have Mo close it out.

Posted by: rbj [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 12:52 PM

Not to nit-pick, but rather because I found it amusing...

"Just an add on - in his last two seasons with the Yankees, combined, Clemens' ERA was over 4. So, now, three years later and as his age is amost half way to 50, what makes anyone think that he will do better than that, if he's back in the Bronx in 2006?"

If his age were "halfway to fifty" (25), I'd say throw all sorts of money at him...

Posted by: rafael [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 07:14 PM