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February 07, 2006

PECOTA On Bernie

Via Steve Goldman's Pinstriped Bible:

Over at Baseball Prospectus, the PECOTA cards are up ahead of this year's book, with all kinds of projection extras. A few interesting predictions from baseball's great prognosticating program, modeled on "Landru" from the old Star Trek episode "Return of the Archons": Bernie Williams' weighted mean projection: .261/.336/.384. There is no mathematical system known to man in which those numbers suggest a starting designated hitter.

An OPS of .720. That is at least 50 to 100 points below acceptable for a DH these days.

I'm really starting to hope that Bernie bombs this Spring and we nip this in the bud.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at February 7, 2006 03:37 PM

Comments

what do you think of Roberto Petagine, recently released by the Sox?

Posted by: Nick from Washington Heights [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 05:06 PM

RP married a woman 23 years his senior. No lie. He was born in 1971 and she was born in 1948. And, I hear she's the Latin Anna Benson. Pass.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 05:14 PM

RP married a woman 23 years his senior. No lie. He was born in 1971 and she was born in 1948. And, I hear she's the Latin Anna Benson. Pass.
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Who cares?

I went to school with someone who claimed to be his cousin. Maybe she was, maybe she wasn't but I don't think he has any reason to lie, seeing as this was back in 1993...

Anyway, couldn't hurt to take a flyer on him, but if the Yanks passed on Russ Branyan, I don't see them signing Petagine.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 7, 2006 05:23 PM

First, we could have had Piazza, dammit.

Second, pardon the generalization from my small sample size, but Hispanic women tend to age very well:

Case in point: I was watching (no pun intended) one of those stupid NFL pregame shows 2 years ago with an in-depth interview featuring Tony Gonzales.

Not really paying attention, I thought "his sister is not that bad"....and then (double take) it was his freaking mom...

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 8, 2006 12:06 AM

Predictions are just that - guesses. Bernie could well benefit from a reduced role. I don't see him putting up vintage Bernie numbers, but without worrying about his defense and reducing the strain on his body by not playing in the field, he could potentially have a good season. Would I feel a whole lot better if they had a backup DH plan? Sure, but I wouldn't write Bernie off as a failure before he even gets out there.

Posted by: hopbitters [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 8, 2006 11:41 AM

Still, "There is no mathematical system known to man in which those numbers suggest a starting designated hitter" was a pretty funny line.

Or at least I thought so

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 8, 2006 11:23 PM