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February 01, 2006

2002: What A Waste

It's always about pitching, right? I was just playing around with the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, looking at the Yankees pitching under Torre:

torpitch.jpg

That 2002 Yankees pitching staff was very good. What the heck happened in the ALDS that year?

Then again, the 2002 Angels pitched like the 1998 Yankees. So, maybe it makes sense.

Any guesses where the 2006 Yankees will rank compared to the teams in this chart? If they end up below 7th place, it's not going to be a nice post-season this year either.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at February 1, 2006 10:25 PM

Comments

My guess is that pitchin gin 2006 will look no better than 2005, because there's not much change in the pitching staff. The new relievers look roughly equal to the ones they replaced. Although there's uncertainty over how various starters will pitch, I think deterioration is at least as likely as improvement.

Posted by: David [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2006 02:13 AM

I'm with David on this one. The staff is about the same as last year so we shouldn't expect a dramatic jump up the list. The pitching will be good enough to win some games 6-5 and bad enough to lose some games 7-6. There will be some amazing single-game performances and there will be just as many of the usual Mussina/Pavano 4 inning starts where one of those bums'll get us in a hole after a few batters.

The real question is this: what will the Red Sox staff look like in 2006? With Schilling and Beckett they could be great (if healthy) or they could be dreadful (if hurt). We all know the Yanks have the offense to muster together at least 90 wins. I want to know if the Red Sox have the pitching to get 80 wins or 100 wins.

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2006 09:58 AM

The starting rotation is the same, but how can you even compare the two bullpens? Have you already forgotten names like F-Rod and Embree and Wayne Franklin and Proctor and Stanton? The bullpen was a mess last year. When Scott Proctor gets major innings, you're in trouble. This year the Yankees added Farnsworth, Myers, Villone and Dotel (while retaining Small and Wright for bullpen duties). With Small and Villone around, Sturtze might not have to set his shoulder on fire, which means he might be effective for more than a month. Farnsworth replaces Gordon, who was old and terrible last year. Myers is a lefty who can actually get out lefties. And when Dotel arrives (if he arrives healthy), it gets the Yankees the best seventh-eighth-ninth inning setup since '96.

So if you want to say the rotation won't pick up, fine, but the bullpen has made vast improvements. Just the fact that guys like Proctor and F-Rod aren't around make it better. At the very least, unlike last year, this bullpen has the POTENTIAL to be effective. Last year there wasn't even that.

Posted by: baileywalk [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2006 10:18 AM

We all know the Yanks have the offense to muster together at least 90 wins. I want to know if the Red Sox have the pitching to get 80 wins or 100 wins.
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FWIW, the Sox as a staff had a -54 RSAA last season (for comparision, Yanks had -11) and they were able to win 90 games. I'd say it's a possiblity that they have the pitching to do it.

They're kinda weird on the offensive side of the ball, tho'

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2006 10:19 AM

Raf, if they won 95 games with a pitching that that was much worse than ours was last year then honestly I'm pretty scared for 2006 since our pitching staff is the same and theirs has the potential to be much better. I still don't understand how Cashman got away with not improving the rotation this offseason. How can he really believe in Mussina and Pavano at this point?

Posted by: MJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2006 11:03 AM

Raf, if they won 95 games with a pitching that that was much worse than ours was last year then honestly I'm pretty scared for 2006 since our pitching staff is the same and theirs has the potential to be much better.
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Fear not, fellow Yankee fan, for it is but one piece of the puzzle...

FWIW, the Jays had a 60 RSAA

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 2, 2006 12:35 PM