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January 06, 2006
The Healthy Carl Pavano
How many times in Yankeeland have you heard "If Carl Pavano is healthy next/this year........."?
Well...what? What should we expect from a healthy Carl Pavano? To that end, I decided to take the average of Pavano's last two injury-free seasons:
Now, this is a tad misleading since these were stats that Carl posted as a member of the Marlins (in a home park that favored pitchers). If you adjust his ERA for this fact, it should be a number closer to 3.92 (than 3.61).
And, if you consider that ERAs are usually higher in the A.L. - because of the DH - then you need to make another adjustment. For me, I would make that 3.92 ERA closer to 4.18 in the A.L.
And, what was Carl Pavano's A.L. ERA in 2005? It was 4.77.
That's pretty close to 4.18, isn't it? Which, then, brings up that question again - was Pavano really hurt last year? Or, did he just check out because of some issues causing him to be unhappy? It sure seems like he was pitching at a level to be expected. Oh, well, we'll probably never know - or won't know until he's no longer a Yankee.
Back to point, if Pavano is healthy this year, the expectation should be to see about 200 IP with an ERA slightly over 4, and to expect anything else (better) would be extreme wishful thinking.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 6, 2006 02:30 PM
Comments
Defense also needs to be factored in here. Going from Luis Castillo and Alex Gonzalez to Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano is a big switch for a ground ball pitcher. Pavano's 2005 FIP was 4.45.
I think I would be very happy with an ERA of around 4.10 and 200 innings. We have the offense.
Posted by: DownFromNJ ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.waswatching.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 6, 2006 03:57 PM
I'm not so much concerned with Pavano's ERA as I am the number of quality starts he gives us. In 2004, he gave the Marlins 23 of them. I've been trying to find the stats for last year's Yankees in that department, but I'm falling short. Any help?
Rich
Posted by: Rich at January 6, 2006 05:14 PM
In 2005:
Unit had 22 QS. Mussina 16. Wang 12. Chacon 9. Pavano 8. Small 5. Brown 4. Leiter 3. Wright 3.
So, Pavano was 8 for 17 in 2005 = 47%. In 2004 it was 23/31 = 74%. That is a big difference.
But, in 2005, IIRC, Pavano was 5 for 8, in terms of QS, on the road. Remember, he was hung up about pitching at home last year. On the road, he was the same pitcher as 2004.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at January 6, 2006 10:50 PM