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January 21, 2006

Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2006

FYI, you might enjoy the review of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2006 that I just did for NetShrine.com. Click here to read it.

It was a very good book. From a Yankees fan angle, it looks like we should be very concerned about Shawn Chacon's performance in 2006. According to their findings, he was very lucky in 2005.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 21, 2006 11:23 AM

Comments

Why is that?

Overall his numbers look pretty good; less hits to IP, more K's than walks...

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 21, 2006 06:25 PM

He stranded an above average amount of runners last year - and, on average, that's hard to do every year. And, his hits allowed per balls in play was lower than average - and, again, that's hard to do every season.

When they adjust his ERA for 2005 - by looking at the components behind it - they say that, overall, it should have been more like 4.44 instead of 3.45. And, they predict an ERA of 4.77 in 2006.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 21, 2006 10:45 PM

Also, he's a FB pitcher who does not K a lot - and, it's hard for those types of pitchers to have a low ERA - unless they get lucky.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 21, 2006 10:47 PM

On the other hand, Chacon was throwing only 86-89 MPH in 2005, recovering from his arm surgery. Since he's only 27, there's every reason to think that 18 months out from surgery he'll be throwing 93-95 MPH again. More than 5 MPH extry will increase his K rate as well as lower his balls in play. Not saying he's going to have an ERA under 3.50 but there's a lot more upside there than Shandler's one-year analysis would predict.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 21, 2006 11:11 PM

Considering that 2005 was his best season ever - by far - out of the last 5 - maybe he's better off without getting that xMPH back?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 21, 2006 11:17 PM

I don't know his H/R splits, but I'm sure getting out of Colorado helps a bit

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 22, 2006 10:50 AM

You have to remember, Shandler looks at the numbers before the final numbers. So, yes, his ERA might have dropped .6 in the move out of Coors - but, it terms of his command, control, dominance, etc., he was still the same pitcher. The stats that Shandler zeros in on are not impacted by a park.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 22, 2006 08:05 PM

Says in his bio, Shandler's a "die-hard" Mets fan. You know, there are some scientists out there who believe in Intelligent Design.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 23, 2006 10:46 AM