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January 02, 2006

Mike Mussina In 2006

I was just looking at Mike Mussina's stats for the last two years. They're very close. So, I thought, it's probably safe to take the average of the last two, and apply that as a projection for 2006. Here's the results:

mussina.jpg

Yup, look for Mussina to miss three to four starts next year, throw about 170-something innings, win about 13 and lose about 9, with an ERA in the ballpark of four-and-a-half.

Now, the twist to all this is Moose's contract after 2006. It's a team option, at $17 million for 2007, or a buyout at $1.5 million. What are the odds, given this projection, of Mussina being in pinstripes in 2007? Of course, the Yankees could "Bernie" him - meaning pay the buyout and then sign him to a cheaper deal for 2007.

But, you can do that with a 4th OF - not a member of your starting rotation. Unless Mussina pulls a miracle this year and posts huge numbers, expect this season to be his last in the Bronx.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 2, 2006 08:09 PM

Comments

I personally will be glad to see the end of Mussina's reign of being mediocre. He is one of the last, along with Giambi, of the big money free agents who got outrageous contracts for being, well, mediocre. He has not been dominant over a season nor has he been durable. He has one or two great games every season, that's it. I love the story about when Joe D was asked what he thought about today's .280 hitters getting these big contracts. He said he didn't know what his contract would be, but his first words to George Steinbrenner would be, "Well, partner, let's talk..." Probably apocryphal, but it does put some perspective on what were some very bad signings, and not just by the Yankees.

Posted by: Scott Coulter [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 2, 2006 11:08 PM

He has not been dominant over a season nor has he been durable. He has one or two great games every season, that's it.
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2001 RSAA

Mussina: 34
Clemens: 24 (Cy Young Award winner)

2002 RSAA

Mussina: 7
Clemens: 0

2003 RSAA

Mussina: 23
Clemens: 10

From 1995-2003, Mussina threw over 200 innings per season

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 12:18 AM

Thanks Raf. While Mussina does seem to be one of those guys who is destined to be a near-miss as an all-time great, he has been anything but mediocre overall.

Posted by: JeremyM [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 10:35 AM

Moose was fine, the 1st three years of his deal:

http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2005/12/three_lap_horse.html

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 11:36 AM

Funny how his hits allowed have stayed relatively consistent despite pitching less innings.

I don't think he'll put together an outstanding season (he's 36 with a lot of mileage) but he'll put together a solid season.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 12:09 PM

Raf, check the numbers again.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 12:54 PM

Raf, check the numbers again.
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Solid = around league average.

His days as an ace are over. Like I said before, he's a #3, a #2 would be stretching it.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 01:31 PM

I was pointing more towards your comment on hits allowed - the rates have gone up for him three years in a row.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 01:48 PM

I was pointing more towards your comment on hits allowed - the rates have gone up for him three years in a row.
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I was pointing out that during his Yankee career despite pitching less innings, the hits allowed have stayed consistent;

202, 208, 192, 178, 199

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 02:30 PM

Any his IP totals were?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 02:56 PM

Any his IP totals were?
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I've pointed it out twice that despite pitching less innings that his hits allowed have remained about the same.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 3, 2006 04:58 PM

If he goes 0-6 with a 7.00 ERA and only 22 IP while missing 4 out of his last 11-12 starts in the final 2 months of the season, your predictions will be right on :)

Posted by: Jack Johnston [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 4, 2006 11:37 AM