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January 03, 2006
Big Unit Year 2
I was just thinking about the notion of Randy Johnson having a better year in 2006 - because it's easier to play in New York once you've done it for a year. So, I decided to look at some other recent Yankees pitching imports to see how they did, in terms of Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA), in their second seasons in the pinstripes:

As you can see, it's no lock that the pitcher does better in his second season - only 5 out of 13 did better in year two.
What's sort of interesting here is "who" falls into what group. Those who did better in the second season, for the most part, are the extrovert types - like Clemens, Cone, Wells, Abbott, etc. And, those who did worse were more of the introvert type - like Mussina, Leary, Rogers, Brown, Contreras, etc.
This could means something - or nothing - because the sample size is not that large. But, what it does mean, to me, is that it is not a "lock" that Randy Johnson will have a "better" go at in in New York because it's his second year in town.
Then again, if he could pull a "Jimmy Key" and just match his 2005 numbers in 2006, that would be fine - after all, he was no dud last year. In 2005, Johnson was one of the "Top Dozen" starters in the league. The key, no pun intended, is for him not to do worse.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at January 3, 2006 01:19 PM
Comments
Is RJ's loss of 3-4 mph on the fastball due to mechanics or that he's 42? What bothers me is that I watched his perfect game 2 seasons ago and he was throwing 97-98 in the 8th inning.
Except for 2-3 of his starts last year, it seemed like 95 was a rarity and 92 was the average.
I'm not sure it matters, b/c with Roger on the squad RJ will have no pressure as the #2. :)
Will the yanks dangle 20? 22? 25?!!?
Posted by: Jason O.
at January 3, 2006 02:02 PM
I wouldn't read too much into the list;
Clemens was coming off back to back outstanding seasons, it would stand to reason there would be a letdown
Mussina had a better year than Clemens in 2001, again, there may have been some sort of letdown
Cone already pitched in NY, Leary stunk, Abbott left his fastball in California (and who knows, with 8 more starts could've been better or worse)
Rogers and Brown dealt with health issues.
So on and so forth.
Johnson can have a better year in 06. Or he can equal it, or he can get worse. Pitching is a crapshoot. Sometimes he seemed like the RJ of old last season, sometimes he looked like an old RJ.
For the Yanks' sake, I hope he looks the former instead of the latter
Posted by: Raf
at January 3, 2006 02:42 PM
That's funny because to me, I saw 95 several times but I didn't see the trademark command. Either way, if we get another year like we got last year from the Big Unit, I'll be very happy.
And insofar as Rocket is concerned, give him whatever it takes for him to come back. Honestly, if the Yanks were willing to have a $208M payroll last year and needed superhuman efforts from Chacon and Small, why should they not go the extra mile this year? Anything that gets Rocket in and Pavano out is a move in the right direction. Nothing would make me happier than Unit/Rocket going all out against Boston in September. How much fun would that be?
Posted by: MJ
at January 3, 2006 02:46 PM
How silly would the Yankees look if they gave Clemens 20+ million and then he showed up and pitched like a 43-year old?
Posted by: Steve Lombardi
at January 3, 2006 02:55 PM
About as silly as paying Pavano to pitch like Pavano and Wright to pitch like Wright.
Posted by: hopbitters
at January 3, 2006 03:17 PM
True. So, why add to the pile? I'd rather pay someone who you know will be good - rather than hope that he can still be good.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi
at January 3, 2006 03:47 PM
Right SL, but Clemens pitched 4.5 months of cy young ball last year. It seems that you are placing too high a probability on his total collapse in 2006.
To state it another way: Put Bonds's personality aside. If you could have him as the DH in '06, given his injury last year, would you?
I am still angry at Clemens for bailing after '03. That doesn't mean I don't want him for 17-20 wins next season.
Posted by: Jason O.
at January 3, 2006 04:15 PM
I'm with Cashman - the team needs to get younger - esp. the pitchers. If they have $20 mill to throw at a pitcher, I'd rather see it go to someone younger than me.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi
at January 3, 2006 04:23 PM
I'm with Cashman - the team needs to get younger - esp. the pitchers. If they have $20 mill to throw at a pitcher, I'd rather see it go to someone younger than me.
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Like who?
Posted by: Raf
at January 3, 2006 04:55 PM
If I knew that, I would be the GM
Posted by: Steve Lombardi
at January 3, 2006 04:58 PM
Clemens would be worth penny of $20 million. We can't really get younger for next season. IF Clemens were available, do you REALLY think the Yanks would pass on him?
Who are the potential 2006 Free Agents? Zito, Mulder (?), Pettitte, Lilly (?) Pettitte can handle New York, Lilly...well he didn't do so well, but he was young. All 4 will demand big bucks. Who do you take Steve? Pettitte was one of my favorite Yanks for a long time. I was so sad to see him go.
Zito is 27-28, Mulder is 28-29, Lilly is 30-31, and Pettitte is 33-34. Pettitte's just about out of his prime and will begin to decline (in theory). It looks like Zito and Mulder are just about to enter their best years, while Lilly is in the middle of his. So who do you take?
Rich
Posted by: Rich
at January 3, 2006 07:55 PM
I have to give this some thought - thanks for the food!
Posted by: Steve Lombardi
at January 3, 2006 10:19 PM
