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December 19, 2005

Octavio Dotel

Reportedly, the Yankees are after Octavio Dotel - and many Yankees fans are happy about this news.

Not me.

When I think of Dotel, I think "Dominican Rob Dibble."

They're both hot-heads. And, just like Dibble was on top of the world from 1988-90, Dotel was too (from 2001-03). Further, just like Dibble flamed out with injury, so did Dotel.

Dibble never came back. And, I suspect that Dotel will not as well.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at December 19, 2005 01:04 PM

Comments

The state of medical science has taken a quantum leap in the last decade or more, making Dotel's complete return from arm surgery a lot more optimistic than Dibble's was. But, then again, I'm not a doctor, I only play one with women who like to play nurse.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 02:13 PM

" YANKS MAY RESERVE DOTEL ROOM"

*giggle*

Hey, it couldn't hurt to take a flyer on him. Have him and Farnsworth setting up Rivera.

You can never have enough arms. Go for it.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 02:26 PM

Is it true that "Dotel" is how you say "Karsay" in Spanish?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 02:28 PM

Have you seen his strikeout rate? With the absolutely terrible Yankee defense... it makes me drool.

Posted by: DownFromNJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 02:30 PM

Is it true that "Dotel" is how you say "Karsay" in Spanish?
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Dotel doesn't have the injury history Karsay has, despite pitching more innings.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 02:50 PM

I dunno.
I see 28 career blown saves with 71 career saves and I think he's a Benitez-case, in that he's not someone you want pitching in an important late-inning spot.

Yes, that's a BS/S ratio of about 36%.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 02:57 PM

"Have you seen his strikeout rate?"

Byung-Hyun Kim (2000), Matt Mantei (1999), John Rocker (1999-2000), and Mark Wohlers (1995) all had seasons, recently, with high K-rates too. And, we know where they all ended.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 03:01 PM

I dunno.
I see 28 career blown saves with 71 career saves and I think he's a Benitez-case, in that he's not someone you want pitching in an important late-inning spot.

Yes, that's a BS/S ratio of about 36%.
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Dotel has a 72% conversion rate over his career

Tom Gordon: 73%
Kyle Farnsworth: 49%
Mike Stanton: 60%
Jeff Nelson: 41%
Tanyon Sturtze: 30%
Paul Quantrill: 31%

Not that it matters, Dotel would be pitching as a setup man, anyway. Maybe earlier

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 03:21 PM

I'd take a flyer on Dotel. He'd be 3rd or 4th on the totem pole anyway, behind Rivera, Farnsworth, and Villone. Call me a cock-eyed optimist but I think Cashman's trying to collect some chips he can trade during the season...and both Myers and Villone would be valuable trade bait. Unless Cashman's just blowing smoke, he really likes Matt Smith and maybe J.B. Cox will be ready in July or August. I know it's the old Steve Phillips trick but it might be more effectively done by someone with Cashman's smarts.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 03:26 PM

If you factor in holds, he looks better.

A hold is a save for a setup man. When your a setup man, you get a blown save for messing up, but a hold for being successful.

71 saves in 99 career opportunities, yes. But factor in holds and it becomes 147 saves/holds in 175 chances, or an 84% rate. Pretty good.

Posted by: DownFromNJ [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 03:44 PM

Looking at it another way, a guy coming off TJ surgery that receives offers from 11 teams is probably someone you want to look at.

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 19, 2005 06:56 PM

Having watched Dotel strike out 4 Yanx in an inning on serious heat, I'd be happy to see him wearing pinstripes. None of this effing around with the corners like most of the bullpen, but hardcharging fastballs. Talk about a change of pace.

Posted by: rbs10025 [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 20, 2005 02:13 AM

Well, the beauty of this is that the 2006 season will happen, and soon we'll know the truth about Dotel - esp. if he signs with the Yankees.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 20, 2005 08:09 AM

Well, the beauty of this is that the 2006 season will happen, and soon we'll know the truth about Dotel - esp. if he signs with the Yankees.
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We'll see; according to today's ATM reports (courtesy of Newsday), it's possible he could be signed today

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 20, 2005 12:09 PM