WasWatching.com

« November 2005 | Main | January 2006 »

December 31, 2005

Heyman: Pavano Still On The Block

From Newsday:

When the Yankees publicly have said they'd like to keep Pavano, that's just them negotiating. They know he'd do better elsewhere.

At this point, if the Yankees do trade Pavano, they better get a starting pitcher in return. As bad as Pavano was last year, he still was the 38th best pitcher in the A.L. (out of all hurlers with at least 100 IP). It will be interesting to see how Cashman does handle this - if they indeed trade Carl.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:09 PM | Comments (6)

The True Mr. October

*Joe DiMaggio's consecutive game hitting streak
*Walter Johnson's career shutouts
*Peter Rose's career hits total
*Cy Young's 511 career wins
*Johnny Vander Meer's two consecutive no-hitters

These are the answers that you're most likely to hear when you ask someone "What baseball record will never be broken?"

Another one just occurred to me.

Pitching in the post-season for the most seasons in a row.

Mo Rivera has pitched in the post-season during every year in his big league career (to date) - 11 seasons. That must be a record - eleven in a row. In fact, Rivera's 72 post-season appearances (by a pitcher) to date might be another unbreakable mark.

Let's hope that Mariano keeps adding on to his streak for a while more.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:47 PM | Comments (0)

December 30, 2005

Happy New Year!

First of all, I would like to wish all the readers of WasWatching.com a very happy and healthy new year. And, may all your resolutions for 2006 come true!

Personally, I have a ton of stuff that I need to get better at:

1. I need to exercise more routinely so that I have a chance to be around when my kids reach the age that I was when we had them.

2. I need to spend less and/or make more money.

3. I need to start working on some of the "house" projects that I've been putting off for the last six years.

4. I need to start updating the gallery at NetShrine.com (which is long overdue) and start working on my second book.

And, from a Yankees-fan-perspective........

I need to not allow my "following of the team" to dictate my life schedule (which is something that happens now).

I need to stop staying up late to watch the end of just about every game - and then blogging about it - and start to get more than 5 hours a night sleep.

I need to stop trying to finagle a way to be home to watch opening day.

I need to cease "stopping life as I know" for every series with Boston and for post-season games. It's amazing to me that I allow the outside world to go away completely during the "big games" and have everything else revolve around the them. I have not had a productive October since 1994.

As you can see, I have a lot to do this year! How about you? Any Yankees resolutions that you want to share?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:25 PM | Comments (9)

WasWatching.com Stat Glossary

One of the things that I've always wrestled with in doing this blog is the use of some of the sabermetric measures that I like to throw around. It's not me using them that's the issue - it's knowing whether or not that people understand the terms that concerns me.

Should I use the full term or are acronyms OK? Do I need to provide the definition each time that I use them? Stuff like that.

So, I've decided to create an entry here where I can list some of the terms that I use - and link to it at times (when I mention some of these sabermetric measures). It seems like a good Band-Aid now for this issue of mine.

Here are some of the terms that I use here frequently and the skinny on each:

Bases Per Plate Appearance [BPA]

The formula is (TB+BB+HBP+SB-CS-GIDP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF).

Baserunners Per Nine Innings [BR/9]

The total number of batters reaching base against a pitcher divided by the number of innings pitched and multiplied by nine. It measures how many batters reach base on a per game basis against a pitcher.

A league best figure for this category is typically between 9 and 10.

Blown Saves [BS]

When a relief pitcher enters a game, he may be said to have a save opportunity if his team currently has the lead and he would be awarded a save if he finished the game. If, while he is pitching, his team loses the lead, either by way of the score becoming tied or by falling behind, that pitcher is said to have "blown the save." He is charged with a blown save, even if his team should eventually win the game, because he was entrusted with the responsibility to preserve his team's lead, and he failed to accomplish that.

Command Ratio [K/BB]

(Strikeouts / Walks) - A measure of a pitcher's raw ability to get the ball over the plate. There is no more fundamental a skill than this, and so it is accurately used as a leading indicator to project future rises and falls in other gauges, such as ERA. Command is one of the best gauges to use to evaluate minor league performance. It is a prime component of a pitcher's base performance value.

Benchmarks: Baseball's upper echelon of pitchers will have ratios in excess of 3.0. Pitchers with ratios under 1.0 -- indicating that they walk more batters than they strike out -- have low probability for long term success. 

Defensive Efficiency Record [DER]

The rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense.

Game Score [G Sc]

A measure of pitching performance for starting pitchers. Developed by Bill James. The formula consists of eight parts:

1. Start with 50.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded.
3. Add 2 points for each inning the pitcher completes after the fourth inning.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Consider this pitching line:
IP H R ER BB K
8.1 5 2 1 2 7

The game score for the performance shown would be 72 (50+25+8+7-10-4-2-2).

An average start would score 50. One start in 300 reaches a score of 90 or better, and an all-time great performance would reach 100.

Isolated Power [ISO]

A player's slugging average minus his batting average. Bill James provided its current name. Branch Rickey championed the stat, calling it "Power Average." A measure of a player's ability to hit for power considered apart from his ability to hit singles.

ISO = SLG - AVG

For an individual, ISO under .080 means he can be considered a singles hitter; ISO over .200 is very good power.

Neutral Losses [NL]

It is a projection for how many losses a pitcher would have if he was given average run support, considering the amount of actual decisions.

Neutral Wins [NW]

It is a projection for how many wins a pitcher would have if he was given average run support, considering the amount of actual decisions.

Offensive Winning Percentage [OWP]

A player's Offensive Winning Percentage equals the percentage of games a team would win with nine of that player in its lineup, given average pitching and defense. The formula is the square of Runs Created per 27 Outs, divided by the sum of the square of Runs Created per 27 Outs and the square of the league average of runs per game.

Park Factor [PF]

This is an estimate of a ballpark’s effects on batting and pitching and is expressed as either a decimal or a whole number. A neutral ballpark has a park factor of 1.00 or 100. Park factors are those used in many publications include three-year averages unless a ballpark was in use for fewer than three seasons. Park factors are also adjusted to reflect the fact that a batter or pitcher does not face his own team. Thus, different park factors are provided for a team’s batters and pitchers.

Production [OPS]

Sabermatricians (baseball statisticians) consider the ability to get on base (OBP) and the ability to hit for power (SLG) to be the two most valuable offensive abilities of a player. Thus one measure of a player's prime offensive talents, his "production" or PRO, is to simply combine OBP and SLG.

OPS = OBP+SLG

Pythagorean Winning Percentage [PW%]

Developed by Bill James, is the predicted winning percentage based on runs and runs allowed. The formula is as follows: Runs^2/(Runs^2+Runs Allowed^2)
Here is the calculation for the 1999 Yankees. The Yankees scored 900 runs and allowed 731 runs:

900^2/(900^2+731^2)=.603

Thus, the Yankees would be predicted to have a .603 winning percentage. In actuality, the Yankees had a .605 winning percentage. A more precise calculation uses a factor of 1.83, but a factor of two works almost as well. From Pythagorean winning percentage it is possible to figure Pythagorean wins (PW) and Pythagorean losses (PL).

Range [RNG]

This is an unofficial measure of a defensive player's fielding ability. In effect, it indicates how many defensive chances a player is able to convert into outs on a per game basis. Range for 1B, C and pitchers is not a meaningful stat. It is calculated as:

RNG = 9*SC/INN

where SC is successful chances and INN is innings played on defense.

Performance differs by position. Typical season range factors are: 2B-4.5 to 6.0; 3B-2.0 to 3.3; SS-4.0 to 5.3; RF- and LF-1.5 to 2.5; CF-2.3 to 3.2.

Runs Created [RC]

A Bill James statistic. An estimate of the number of runs that a player would produce based on his offensive statistics. Runs created is an attempt to measure total offensive contribution in terms of runs (see also Runs Contributed). Divided by the runs required per win (in professional baseball, approximately 10), runs created becomes the total wins created by this player's offensive performance. 

RC = ((H+BB+HBP-CS-GIDP) * (TB+ 0.26*(BB+HBP-IBB) + 0.52*(SB+SH+SF)))/(AB+BB+HBP+SH+SF)

Note: The formula shown here is the modern formula in current use by sabermetricians. Bill James created many variations of the basic formula to adjust for available data and other factors in bygone eras. 

RC typically ranges from 0 to 120 in a 162-game season. Only players who play a lot can have a very high season total, since the number is dependent on total stats. For a team, runs created is a projected estimate of the runs the team should have scored given its number of hits (by type), walks, stolen bases, and times caught stealing. Comparing team runs created to actual runs scored gives an indication of other factors at work, factors that effect the efficiency of a team's offense. For instance, high efficiency -- consistently scoring more runs than projected -- could be explained by good clutch hitting, good baserunning, good managing, or good luck (or maybe cheating). The more consistent the two figures, the less luck is probably involved.

Runs Created Above Average [RCAA]

This is a Lee Sinins creation. It's the difference between a player's runs created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs. A negative RCAA indicates a below average player in this category.

Runs Created Per Game [RC/G]

Runs created is an accumulation stat; the more a player bats, the more runs he creates (assuming he makes some positive contribution). Converting runs created into runs created per game provides an indication of how valuable this player is to have in the lineup. RC/G is somewhat like ERA is for pitchers; it recasts the offensive contribution of the player in the context of a nine inning (in this case, 27 out) game. To calculate RC/G, multiply RC by 27 and divide by the number of outs the player is responsible for (OM), thus:

RC/G = 27*RC/OM

[Note: The formula shown here is the modern formula in current use by sabermetricians. Since data is available to account for all outs made, it is appropriate to use 27 outs as the context. In earlier periods, data on some kinds of outs (GIDP and CS are examples) are incomplete or unavailable. Consequently, applying the formula to other eras requires use of 25.5 or 26 outs per game.]

One way to look at RC/G is to imagine a lineup with the same player batting in every spot. A team made up of nine 1992 model Barry Bonds, for example, would be expected to score 11.34 runs per game on average. (Bonds had 147 runs created in 1992.)

Runs Saved Against Average [RSAA]

This is a Lee Sinins creation. It is the amount of runs that a pitcher saved versus what an average pitcher would have allowed. It is similar to the statistic Pitching Runs detailed in Total Baseball - except (1) both have different ways of park adjustments and (2) Total Baseball added a procedure to take into account the amount of decisions the pitcher had while RSAA does not. A negative RSAA indicates a below average player in this category.

Secondary Average [SEC]

Developed by Bill James to measure a player's offensive contributions beyond batting average. Secondary Averages of leagues are always very similar to the league batting average, but player secondary averages run from .100 (for truly inept offensive players) to upwards of .600. The formula is: (Total Bases-Hits+Walks+Stolen Bases)/(At Bats)

Total Average [TA]

A ratio of the bases a player accumulates for his team and the outs he costs his team. Total Average is a Thomas Boswell statistic included in his book "How Life Imitates the World Series."

TA = (TB+HBP+BB+SB)/(AB-H+CS+GIDP)

 If a player has a TA over 1.000, that's very good.

Win Shares [WS]

A Bill James creation that aims towards allowing player evaluation across positions, teams and eras. It measures the total sum of a player's contribution expressed as one number.

Zone Rating [ZR]

STATS Inc. devised their own system of zones to track locations of batted balls. They use this data to measure a fielder's range in the field. Zone Rating areas of responsibility do not span the entire field -- some areas (for example, deep in the gap between CF and RF) are considered to be a "no man's land" that is ordinarily beyond the reach of fielders, and thus a ball hit there is not considered an opportunity.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:13 PM | Comments (8)

December 29, 2005

Are The Pieces Now In Place?

Here's an updated look at the Yankees roster (from how it looked three weeks ago):

Catchers (2): Posada and Stinnett
Infielders (6): Giambi, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez, Phillips, and Cairo
Outfielders (5): Matsui, Damon, Sheffield, Williams and Crosby
Starting Picthers (5): Johnson, Wang, Mussina, Pavano, and Chacón
Bullpen (7): Rivera, Farnsworth, Myers, Sturtze, Villone, Small, and Wright

Just a couple of weeks ago, I came up with the notion that a World Championship roster should have:

1. Great table-setters at the top of the line-up, and
2. At least one SP who is not afraid of the post-season - a guy who wants the ball in the big game, and
3. A good/solid LHP in the pen, and
4. A good/solid LHP in the rotation, and
5. A back-up INF with good hands, and
6. A 4th OF who can hit, and
7. An effective guy in the pen who can start or relieve (in any inning), and
8. A shut-the-door closer, and
9. A catcher who is not an auto-out, and
10. Two guys in the middle of the line-up who make contact as well as drive the ball.

The Yankees might have some matches here, being:

1. Damon & Jeter
2. Johnson
3. Myers and/or Villone
4. Johnson, again
5. Cairo
6. Williams
7. Small
8. Rivera
9. Posada
10. Sheffield and Matsui

The items of concern above are numbers six and seven. Both of these guys could be busts in 2006 and then you're looking at Crosby and Wright as their subs - and we know that they should not be effective players, if given the chance, most of the time. Maybe a come-backing Dotel helps here? But, that's still a question-mark now.

And, it would not matter if the Yankees have items 1 through 10 if Mussina, Pavano, and at least one other member of the righties in the rotation bomb.

Still, it's not unreasonable to expect league average seasons from Mussina, Pavano and the rest of the question marks. So, if they go something like 62-58 combined, and Randy Johnson goes something like 18-8, then the Yankees would still be in decent shape in terms of the standings.

If the Yankees could get some Bernie insurance now and then have Small continue to do well next year, their chances in 2006 look great.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:47 PM | Comments (6)

McPaper: Torre Is Mr. Bungl-tober

From Al Neuharth - the founder of the USA Today:

While heartland sports fans in Illinois and Indiana will have plenty to cheer about, the curse returns to Boston. The Red Sox will miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.

My beloved Yankees — with more talent than ever thanks to baseball's best boss, George Steinbrenner — should breeze through the regular season to win the American League East. But Manager Joe Torre's traditional playoff bungling from the bench likely will have them stumbling again in October, for the sixth year in a row.

I've always thought that, at some point, the events of 1997, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 would start to outweigh the good stuff from 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000.

In terms of rings, Joe is just four for ten - and oh'fer his last five.

I think what really is the killer here is how close they were in 2001, 2003 and 2004 - with the choke in 2004 being a huge anchor on Joe's rep.

Funny, after the 2000 season, many were ready to put Torre in Cooperstown at that moment. I wonder if his final record is, say, 4 of for 12ish, would they be so quick - considering that the record probably should have been something like 6 or 7 for 12? Of course, then, what does that do to Bobby Cox? It's all going to be very interesting when that day comes.

Hopefully a ring comes this year and makes it all moot.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:11 PM | Comments (8)

The Baseball Same Game - Gossage Excerpt

Since the results of the latest Baseball Hall of Fame ballot will be announced in less than two weeks, and, related, the Hall of Fame debate for former Yankee Goose Gossage is in the news these days, I have decided to share an excerpt of my book, The Baseball Same Game, where Gossage is highlighted. Those who are wondering about what pitcher(s) in baseball history were like Gossage may find this information helpful. If you like this excerpt, there are 64 additional ones that can be found in the book, if you want to pick up a copy for yourself.

Usually, the strength of a case involving pitchers in The Baseball Same Game has its foundation drawn from the comparison of Innings Pitched and Runs Saved Above Average. In the case of Richard “Goose” Gossage and John Hiller, the driver is different. In this pairing, it is The Baseball Same Game metrics other than Innings Pitched and Runs Saved Above Average that facilitate the claim of sameness.

The marks for Gossage and Hiller in Earned Run Average versus the league average and Strikeouts Per 9 Innings Pitched versus the league average are nearly dead solid perfect matches. And, their totals for Strikeouts to Walks Ratio versus the league average and Base Runners Allowed Per 9 Innings Pitched versus the league average are fairly close as well. These four points of comparison lend towards making the case here.

Without question, Gossage pitched more often than Hiller – as noted by the difference of 500+ Innings Pitched between the two. And, Goose had more Runs Saved Above Average than John did in his career. Nonetheless, because of the closeness in the metrics here outside of Innings Pitched and Runs Saved Above Average and the fact that the ratios of Runs Saved Above Average to Innings Pitched for Gossage and Hiller (.09 and .11, respectively) are close as well, this case will be permitted to stand in The Baseball Same Game.

Goose Gossage was an extremely hard thrower. He first made the major leagues with the Chicago White Sox in 1972 as a relief pitcher and was nothing special during his first three seasons in the big leagues. Then, in 1975, he had a stellar season for the White Sox coming out of the pen. So, what did Chicago do? They moved Gossage to the starting rotation in 1976 and he bombed. On December 10, 1976, Goose was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates and they decided to use him as their closer. Goose went on to be one of the ten best pitchers in the National League in this role with Pittsburgh in 1977. And, as a result of that effort, Gossage was awarded (what was then) a big Free Agent contract to come pitch for the New York Yankees.

Goose went on to have six consecutive solid seasons as the Yankees closer. Tiring of the pressure that came with playing in New York, Gossage left as a Free Agent in 1984 and signed with the San Diego Padres. Gossage was good in his first two years in San Diego, but he was not as good in his last two years there. And, in 1988, Goose was traded to the Chicago Cubs. From this point in his career, Gossage became a nomadic and average relief pitcher. From 1988 through 1994, Gossage would pitch for the Cubs, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees (again), Texas Rangers, Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners. Goose even pitched in Japan during the 1990 season.

Unlike Gossage the eventual traveler, Canadian born John Hiller played his entire career with the Detroit Tigers. Hiller had cup of coffee short stays with the Tigers in 1965 and 1966. It was not until 1967 that he earned a full-time job in the big leagues. Through the 1970 season, John was an effective pitcher for Detroit (pitching mostly in relief but also starting some games).

On January 11, 1971, John Hiller’s career took an unexpected turn. On that day, Hiller suffered a massive heart attack (just a few months short of his 28th birthday). Subsequently, John would need to have seven feet of his intestine removed to alleviate a cholesterol problem. He missed the entire 1971 season. And, in 1972, Hiller’s action was limited to serving as a batting practice pitcher for the Tigers until a comeback to live play on July 8, 1972.

In 1973, John Hiller fully came back. Serving as the Tigers’ closer, he was one of the ten best pitchers in the American League that season. Moreover, from 1973 through 1978, Hiller was the best relief pitcher in the American League. John’s career began to end with a sub par season in 1979. And, while he pitched some in 1980, Hiller probably should have called it quits after 1979. No longer being an effective pitcher, John retired from the game.

There is still great debate as to whether or not Goose Gossage should be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. As this is being penned, it is not known if Gossage will make it to the Hall. However, if Goose does get in, as a result of this case in The Baseball Same Game, it is hoped that some will think about John Hiller on that day (as well as reflecting on the career of Rich “Goose” Gossage). In terms of qualitative career pitching results, the two were the same.

The above is from ~~

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:20 AM | Comments (0)

December 28, 2005

Palmeiro: Yankees Intriguing

From the New York Times:

Rafael Palmeiro said Tuesday he still doesn't know how steroids got into his body and is unsure whether he wants to continue playing baseball.

The former Baltimore Oriole, speaking publicly for the first time since last season, said:"I think it is an unfair thing to expect me [play] at the age of 41, 42, the way I did when I was 30. But maybe if I have some solid years and don't test positive, they can say he went out and hit [well]. Maybe that's what I can do. I love baseball and I'd like to play forever, but there are other things that are important."

He mentioned his two sons, 15 and 10.

"There are things I have to weigh," Palmeiro said. "Baseball needs to be second to my family. I want to see what options I have. If there's something that's intriguing, I'll do it."

And what might he find intriguing?

"The Yankees would be intriguing," he said. "But the Yankees seem to be maxed out."

Please Rafael, find your intrigue somewhere else.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:43 PM | Comments (20)

Let's Be Fair

Even today, every so often, you hear a Yankees fan lament about Randy Johnson's performance in Game 3 of the ALDS this year.

But, let's be fair. Just an inning after Johnson left that contest, it was a 1-run ballgame with 5 innings to play. It's not like Johnson cost the game, completely, for New York. How did Gordon, Leiter, and Proctor do in that game? You could say that it was their 4 runs allowed in 3 innings that cost the Yankees the game. And, back to Unit, Johnson did come back in Game 5 of that series to play a big role in keeping that Yankees in that game.

It's not like post-season Randy Johnson in 2005 equals post-season Kevin Brown and/or Javy Vazquez in 2004.

And, was Johnson in Game 3 this year any worse than Roger Clemens in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS? Was he any worse than Andy Pettitte in Game 6 of the 2001 World Series? Was he any worse than David Cone in Game 1 of the 1997 ALDS? Any worse than Kenny Rogers in Game 4 of the 1996 World Series? Anyone want to remember David Wells in Game 5 of the 2003 World Series? Mussina in Game 5 of this recent ALDS?

Just about every "great" recent Yankees starting pitcher - outside of El Duque and Jimmy Key - has spit the bit in a big post-season contest. It happens.

To single out Randy Johnson for Game 3 of the 2005 ALDS is just unfair - unless you want to roast Clemens, Pettitte, and the others too.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:52 AM | Comments (3)

December 27, 2005

The Return Of Miggy Cairo

From Newsday:

The Yankees expect to sign utility infielder Miguel Cairo to a one-year deal this week, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Cairo, who was the Yankees' starting second baseman in 2004, probably could receive more playing time with another team, but he prefers to return to the Yankees after a year with the Mets.

In his career, Cairo has played every position except catcher and centerfield. And, if push came to shove, I bet he could play those two slots as well at some point in a game, if needed.

Plus, he's not a bad baserunner. Over the last two years combined, he's a 80% stealer. Of all guys with at least 20 swipes over the last two years, only 26 in all of baseball had a better rate. (For what it's worth, Ichiro, Figgins, and Podsednik were all under 80% over this time.)

Granted, Cairo does not come with a great stick. But, if he bats more than 150 times in 2006, then the Yankees will have a bigger problem than Miggy's weak bat.

If the only other option is Felix Escalona, then I'm OK with bringing Cairo back for another tour in the Bronx.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:36 PM | Comments (4)

Jeter's Road Woes To Be Cured?

For the last two years, Derek Jeter has forgotten how to be an effective batter in road games. Check the stats:

Now, usually, when you see a guy batting 60-something points better at home than on the road for two years in a row, you think there's something about the home park that makes this guy better - like a friendly wall, faster turf, or maybe even sign stealing.

But, then how do you explain 2002 and 2003 for Jeter? Back then, Derek was actually more effective on the road than when at home (where he was fine). This is the key to this mystery for me. Something happened in 2004 that caused this trend.

In 2004, Derek Jeter became the Yankees lead-off batter. And, since that time, he's been almost Womack-like with the stick when in the road gray's. Why? Four months ago, I took some guesses at the reason why. And, thinking more about it now, I want to say that it's just a mental thing.

The beauty of this whole situation is that Jeter will not be the Yankees lead-off batter in 2006 - now that Johnny Damon is on board. It will now be interesting to see if Derek improves with the bat, overall, next season as a result of this move.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:13 AM | Comments (6)

Matsui: No WBC For Me

From FoxSports.com -

"The reason I decided to go to the United States was to try and become a world champion with the Yankees, and I fear that chasing two goals might get in the way of that dream," Kyodo quoted Matsui as saying in a statement.

Reason # 107 why I love this guy. What's not to love about a ballplayer with his head screwed on straight?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:06 AM | Comments (0)

December 26, 2005

Ball Four

Here's a trivia question for the Yankees fan in your life:

Q: Who are the five batters to earn 1,000 or more base on balls while wearing the Yankees pinstripes?

A: Ruth, Mantle, Gehrig.........OK, those are the easy ones...

....and.........

Willie Randolph and Bernie Williams.

And, it's a club that looks to be "un-joined" until at least around the year 2011 when Derek Jeter could join it.

I wonder, if you asked this question to every fan going to Opening Day at the Stadium next year, how many would be able to name all five?

Willie is the kicker. Unless you really appreciated what he did for New York from 1976 through 1988, and knew he had one of the best eyes in the game at that time, you would not think of him to be in this group.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:11 PM | Comments (2)

Let's Not Forget About The Pen

Six and a half weeks ago, I wrote:

This all said, it would be wishful thinking to expect more than 70 wins from the Yankees starters in 2006. Where are the other 25-30 wins (probably needed to win) coming from? The bullpen? Do we even know who is in the bullpen yet for 2006?

Well, we know a lot more about the Yankees bullpen for 2006 now than we did then. So, it's a good time to try and find those 25-30 wins.

Between Mo, Farnsworth, Villone and Myers, the 2006 Yankees should get around 20 wins. Probably just a tad less - but, close to twenty.

This means the Yankees will need solid seasons from the rest of their pen next year: Sturtze, Small, Wright and Dotel.

Here's the rub: One or two of those above four will not be in the bullpen for the full season next year.

If I had to guess, I would pick, right now, Sturtze and Small to be the ones out of the gate to be in the pen (for sure) and there for most of the season. (And, if the Yankees go with 12 pitchers, then Wright makes the team as a long-man - unless he's needed in the rotation due to an injury.) I just think that Dotel will not be a factor until June-ish.

What does this mean? It means the Yankees are going to need good seasons from Sturtze and Small in 2006 - or from whoever fills out the pen after Mo, Kyle, and the two lefties. If they don't get it, even with the extra offense of Damon, New York could be looking at closer to 90 wins than closer to 100 wins in 2006.

And, 90 wins does not usually mean first place in the A.L. East.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:12 AM | Comments (8)

December 25, 2005

Joe: No Thanks Kim

From Bob Raissman:

Joe Torre was serious about not wanting to answer questions from Kimberly Jones on YES' postgame show. The Yankees manager not only protested to George Steinbrenner about having to answer inquiries planted with Jones by Yankee officials, he also put his money where his mouth is.

By deciding not to return to "The Joe Torre Report" on YES' postgame show, Torre gave up the hefty six-figure fee YES was paying him. Clearly the money was not worth the aggravation.

Kim, if you're reading this, send me a note at "staff at waswatching dot com." I'll give you my phone number. You can call me after each game and I'll give you "The Steve Lombardi Report" - and I'll do it for a fraction of what Torre was making on the gig. And, I promise, you can ask me anything.

Really, consider it. When you factor in the cookie-cutter answers that you get with the pros anyway, why not go to "Joe Average Fan" and at least have some post-game fun/entertainment?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:14 PM | Comments (2)

Cano Should Not Bat 9th in 2006

I've seen it mentioned in the media quite a bit recently since the Yankees signed Johnny Damon - and, the topic even came up at the Damon press conference at the Stadium - about how Robinson Cano now will be batting ninth in the Yankees 2006 line-up. And, it makes no sense to me - at all.

First off, right now, Cano shows more promise with the bat than Posada or Williams. And, whoever the Yankees have batting sixth next year deserves some protection in the line-up (rather than just being walked with runners on to set up a DP with Posada and Williams likely to supply it).

In fact, if I were filling out the Yankees line-up, I would go with this order:

1. Damon
2. Jeter
3. Giambi
4. A-Rod
5. Matsui
6. Sheffield
7. Cano
8. Posada
9. Some DH

With this set-up, you have L-R-L-R-L-R-L and then a switch-hitter in the 8-hole (and maybe another in the 9th slot).

This eliminates the chance for someone to come in with a left-handed specialist (or a righty who has issues with lefties) late in the game and leave him in for consecutive batters.

Further, with Jason directly behind Damon and Jeter, there's going to be many times where teams cannot use the big shift on Giambi - because if they do, then the runners will just double steal and create all kinds of havoc with no one covering third base.

Now, the only downside to this line-up is having Sheffield bat sixth - because that might cost him some ABs over the course of the year. But, let's face it - someone out of Giambi, A-Rod, Sheffield and Matsui is going to have to bat sixth. And, whatever the choice, it's always going to be a situation of a great batter not getting as many ABs as he would batting higher in the order.

Now, some might like Cano batting ninth because of the "second lead-off hitter theory" (where the thinking is that, once the order starts cranking, it's like having Cano leading off in front of Damon and Jeter). But, think of the type of hitter that Cano is - he's not an "on-base" guy. He's a "put the ball in play" batter - with the hope to hit a liner somewhere on the field in a gap.

This is the guy that you want with runners on - which he will see with the "Big Six" batting in front of him (if Cano does bats seventh).

If Cano bats 9th, he's going to see lots of ABs where he's leading off with no outs or batting with 2 outs - just wait and see. I would much rather see him coming up with runners on, less than two outs, and making contact (and seeing what happens).

In fact, I would guess now that the difference of Cano batting 7th (over 9th) could mean at least one run a game for the Yankees.

Did you know that, from 2002 through 2005, Posada and Williams were among the the top batters in the A.L. for most "grounded into a DP" (GIDP)? Yes, here's the top five in the A.L. for that period (with their total GIDP shown):

1 Miguel Tejada 83
2 Paul Konerko 77
3 Bernie Williams 75
4 Manny Ramirez 72
5 Jorge Posada 68

I don't know Konerko's story. I think it's just that he's a slow right-handed batter. But, I know that Miggy and Manny - great RBI men that they are - just don't run out grounders and that possibly hurts them here. Bernie and Jorge run hard - it's just that they still hit into too many GIDP.

Drilling down on this GIDP-thing some more, Williams and Posada are the far-away leaders in GIDP (since 2002) of all switch-hitting (SH) batters. No left-handed batter or fellow SH is close to them. All the other leaders in GIDP over the last 4 years are right-handed batters. Why is this important? Think about it. Most of Posada and Williams ABs come left-handed - and they're still GIDP monsters.

If one of these guys bats seventh for the Yankees in 2006 - over Cano - they're going to end rallies on a regular basis faster than a loud and juicy fart emitted during a kiss on a first date kills the chance for an end-of-the-evening "come in for a cup of coffee."

I really hope someone on Torre's staff is thinking and suggests that Cano should bat 7th (and not 9th).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:22 PM | Comments (10)

December 23, 2005

The Conga Line!

Over the last three years, Johnny Damon has averaged reaching base 252 times a season.

For Jeter, it's 250.
For Giambi, it's 211.
For A-Rod, it's 282.
For Matsui, it's 256.
For Sheffield, it's 270.

The modern record for most runs scored in a season is 177 (by Babe Ruth in 1921). I don't think Damon is going to reach that total in 2006.

But, it would not shock me if Damon scores close to 150 runs with all those guys behind him moving him along.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:28 PM | Comments (4)

December 22, 2005

Happy Holidays!

Barring any breaking and hot Yankees-related news, I do not expect to be posting any entries to WasWatching.com over the next three days. Therefore, I wanted to take this time now to wish all the readers of this blog a safe and happy holiday season. It's only been 8 months now that WasWatching.com has been up and running, but, I've truly enjoyed all the feedback to this site and its content that you have provided this year. Thanks for that wonderful present! I hope you all have as much fun (as I've had here so far) during your holiday observance.

Look for more [using Chuck Barris voice] stuff [/CBV] here starting next week!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:30 PM | Comments (11)

Mike Piazza

I've seen some Yankees fans this winter express their desire for the Yankees to sign Free Agent Mike Piazza - in order to serve as a DH (and sometimes back-up catcher) for them in 2006. I don't get it. Check the numbers for Mikey since 2002:

These numbers tell us that Piazza's overall offensive ability is in sharp decline and that his ability to hit right-handed pitching should be in serious question at this point.

OK, so, how about just using him as a DH against left-handed pitching? There's two issues there for me.

First, there were only 16 LH starting pitchers in the AL last year (not including Randy Johnson) who made 25+ starts in 2005. And, six of them stunk last year. Basically, the Yankees should see a "tough" LH starter about once every other series in 2006. So, there's not a huge demand for a "bats only against LH SP as a DH" specialist in the AL.

Secondly, you don't know how Piazza will even hit LHP next year. In 2005, he stunk versus LHP (with an OPS of .806 in those spots). Yes, he did better against LHP in 2004 (with an OPS of .915). But, in 2003 he had trouble with LHP (with an OPS of .839) - albeit in not many chances.

Also, Piazza will be 37-years-old next year. And, his body has seen a lot of abuse. So, he's a very old thirty-seven.

Given the trend on Piazza's ability, and the lack of need for a bats-vs.-LHP-only DH specialist, having the Yankees sign him makes about as much sense as having Victoria's Secret sign Don Knotts to be a bra model.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:32 PM | Comments (3)

Bernie This Spring

Now that it's official that Bernie Williams has a Yankees contract for 2006, I find myself thinking about Roberto Alomar.

At the close of 2001, Roberto Alomar, then 33-years-old, had a resume that proved he was one of the best switch-hitters in baseball history.

Then, in 2002, Roberto slumped. And, the slump continued in 2003 and 2004. Finally, at age 37, with his past injuries and age impacting his skills, Alomar had to hang up his spikes just before the start of the 2005 season (while in Spring Training with the Devil Rays).

At the close of 2002, Bernie Williams, then 33-years-old, had a resume that proved he was one of the best switch-hitters in baseball history.

Then, in 2003, Bernie slumped. And, the slump continued in 2004 and 2005. Now, at age 37, Williams heads into another Spring Training with the Yankees.

What if past injuries and age hit Bernie Williams this Spring like they did Roberto Alomar (at the same age) in 2005? Suppose that Bernie can't get the ball out of the infield in his exhibition games and it's clear that retirement is the wiser choice for both he and the Yankees (in 2006)?

It can happen - just as easily as it cannot.

What if it does happen? It will not be good. It will mean that Bubba Crosby, Andy Phillips, and perhaps Kevin Thompson will combine for about 650 Plate Appearances in 2006 - because the Yankees do not have anyone else on the roster behind Bernie.

Perhaps the Yankees can carry that given the addition of Johnny Damon? But, doesn't it seem like the Designated Hitter on the team should be someone who can hit?

It would be nice if the Yankees invited some other players to Spring Training just a contingency plan if Bernie fails. Better safe than sorry, no?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:09 AM | Comments (11)

December 21, 2005

RSN Reaction To Johnny Damon Signing

What follows below are sundry sour grapes and tearful reactions from memebrs of RSN on the Johnny Damon signing news - along with some thoughts that are just full of hate.

From Really Small Fish:

There ought to be a law that states no Red Sox player can ever go play with the Yankees (suck) ever. It just isn't right. Look, I understand it's business and a player needs to maximize the money he makes while he is in his prime, But it's the Yankees (suck). Go ahead Georgie take JD. A year in NYC and he will be doing lines with Howard Stern off some strippers ass at Scores for the 6am eggs and legs show. And he throws like a girl.

From Needleworker Not In Paradise:

Now the Red Sox nation knows why Theo Epstein resigned. He didn't want to be in charge when Johnny Damon took the Yankee money and left a legion of fans who adore him.

From Misery Loves Company:

In the parlance of SOSH, Johnny was 1 of the 25, and for that he'll always own a special place in my heart.

But Johnny Damon is also the first man to break my daughter's heart, and for that I hope he takes his $52m and makes Yankee fans longingly recall Bernie Williams' 2005 season. Enjoy your corporate haircut, Johnny - you're dead to me.

From Sawxblog:

The first day of winter is a cold one for Red Sox fans as we sit huddled together with a feeling that we wish wasn’t familiar. (Another) One of the most popular Red Sox players is no longer with us any more. Our team spokesman, our lead off hitter, our All Star Center Fielder, our free spirited idiot Johnny Damon is gone. Damon was supposedly the Red Sox number one priority this winter, now in losing him we are conceding him to our divisional (blood) rivals within our own division. For some reason I have a Beatles song off of the White Album rolling around in my mind with the incessant “Number Nine, Number Nine, Number Nine, Number Nine…” going over and over again in my imagination. For those of you a step back on the “Oh I get it Meter”, that’s Nine consecutive AL East titles I’m predicting for the New York Yankees.

From Love Lettuce:

The Yankees are like that friend you had in high school who waited until you had a serious crush on a boy, then she pounced. On that same boy. And stole him away, utterly sans remorse. In fact she wanted you to be happy for her.

Anyway, as far as I'm concerned, New York can have Johnny Damon. I am so over him. Whatever.

From Soxblog:

Damon got off to a good start with the Sox and the run lasted for four fine years. But now Damon is a 33 year old who has relied on speed for much of his success. What’s more, Damon hasn’t exactly shown a fanatical devotion to conditioning or clean living. If you were to list the players who might defy the odds of getting old, Damon wouldn’t be on it.

Johnny Damon is likely to enter a serious decline phase in his career. Soon. He’s likely to be injury prone. Added to the mix is that he’s arriving in New York with the same kind of fanfare that accompanied his arrival in Oakland, only this time with Big Apple level decibels rather than Oakland volume. He has not shown an ability to handle that kind of pressure in the past.

From New England Sports Rant:

Get ready Sox fans, it's gonna be a long, long summer (and an even longer time before we win anything again).

From Stephanie Rowe:

Johnny Damon signed with the Yankees yesterday.

The Yankees. As in, bitter enemy who deserves no forgiveness for anything, including the mere fact they dare to exist.

Johnny Damon has been the spirit of the Red Sox. And now he goes across enemy lines?? I don't understand it. He was offered $10m/year with the Sox, and he took $13m/year with the Yankees. When you're making that much money, does three million really mean that much?

Johnny is going to be so sorry when he shows up for spring training and discovers that baseball is no longer a game and no longer supposed to be fun.

Sadly, I like him so much I can't hate him for donning pinstripes. But man, I saw an awesome red sox santa hat today and I had to look away in pain.

From Advancing the Plot:

Johnny Damon has gone to the dark side. This is very hard to accept. For a mere $3 million more a year than the Red Sox were offering. So I don’t think it was money. I feel cheated on. He is already calling that team “we.”

Sniffle. I am sure going to miss the beard and Jesus-hair. Steinbrenner doesn't allow any freedom of expression. Snip snip.

But we will get ours. I can't wait for the booos to rain down on Johnny when he plays the Red Sox at Fenway Park this year. Roger Clemens is breathing a sign of relief.

From This Sox (sometimes):

Johnny Damon. Thanks for all you did. I hope at lease once, Andy Marte scores from second off you on a sacrifice fly to the triangle.

From Yankees 2000: Promote the Curse:

I hope this guy cuts his hair, shaves his beard and looks like a little bull queer. He was a king in Boston. He brought Boston a World Series, coined the team "the Idiots" and was, as sad it may sound, the "white face" of a city that is a pretty racist city.

Now he comes to New York, one of Mr. Steinrbenner's troops. I hope that ugly swing and female throwing style choke.

From Bubba Ray's Blog:

Given my newfound hatred for Johnny Damon, I dumped him from my Sox team on my PS2 video game (MVP 04), and replaced him with the man the Sox should have never dealt in the first place, Dave Roberts.

From The Honest Male Perspective:

He broke a sacred rule in sports. He went from one side of a rivalry to the other. The Red Sox and the Yankees are supposed to hate each other. Thats the way it has always been. In the 50's and 60's when baseball meant something, no player would EVER switch sides on a rivalry for some extra cash or for any reason. In that day and age, both teams HATED each other, plain and simple. No player has so brashly moved from one side to the other since Wade Boggs left Boston and ruined his legacy here. We all still remember him with his porn stash riding a horse in Yankee pinstripes after their 1996 World Series victory. Simply put, Johnny Damon betrayed his country in the worst fashion possible, by joining the enemy.

From Prizblog:

They say revenge is a dish best served cold. It is very cold on the first day of winter. Fourteen months after Johnny Damon's crushing ALCS performace against the hated New York Yankees, Damon has defected to the waiting arms, and wallet, of Steinbrenner's men in stripes. And on this winter solstice, the Red Sox and their Nation begin their long, hard trek toward spring training. With 57 days remaining until pitchers and catchers report, Your Boston Red Sox have no short stop, no center-fielder, no known closer, no lead-off hitter, and two general managers.

From Witch City Sox Girl:

I am so disappointed in Johnny. It's not like the Yankees offer included an extra couple of years. In fact, the money wasn't much more, so I am puzzled as to the true motivation. The comments that he made on his way out were unforgivable. A-Rod's first at-bat in Fenway was a rough one, but that's nothing. You call that booing? Just wait. Johnny is going to get crucified. Fitting, I suppose with all the Jesus comparisons. The fans will be merciless.

From The Skits-O-Phrenics:

Last night I came across some news as one would come across a dropkick to the face off the top rope. Johnny Damon will be a New York Yankee next season. Now it was well known that he was fed up with the red sox management and wanted to change teams. It's also well known that he is getting older and is slowing down some, and was stuck in a slump at the end of last year. So good, I'm perfectly fine with the fact that the sox lost him, make room for someone younger, more consistent, and less expensive.

But damn hell ass balls, the freakin yankees?!

From Tman In Tennessee:

Screw Steinbrenner, Screw Cashman, Screw the Chokees, and finally Screw that traitorous rat-bastard Johnny Unfrozen Caveman Damon. May the lord guide those double AA's thrown from the Fenway Bleachers next year directly to your sizeable useless melon.

From Confessions of a Wayward Catholic:

God hates me
Johnny Damon signed with the Evil Empire.

From Life on Planet Dan-E:

David "Big Papi" Ortiz may be the soul the Boston Red Sox but Johnny Damon was its scruffy Poster Boy, and now he's gonna have to trim the Jesus look and play for the Yankees. Since I'm a little more objective about this and can say that I can't really blame him for going to the Yankees. They clearly showed interest and aggressively pursued him and it's actually been surprising just how lackadaisical the Sox front office was in trying to resign him. Seriously, management dropped the ball worse than Tony Graffanino during Game 2 against the White Sox.

From Finish My Wine dot Com:

The TV was on for about half a minute when I heard the report on ESPN. Goddammit. Why in the name of all that's holy did the Sox let Johnny Damon get away? They knew the sumbitch Yankees were the only other real contender. They knew damn well what he does for the team in stats, spirit and image. And by all accounts, Damon went to play for the enemy only after giving the Sox several chances to get closer to an agreement. They wouldn't budge, so he left.

Just when I was flying high on the Red Sox's plan to GM by committee and send Theo Epstein packing, they go and do the unthinkable. Their offseason maneuvering was moving along fantastically. They had us all saying, "Theo who?" And now their cocky posturing has twisted the team on every front. Hell, I would've been happy had they traded away crybaby Manny Ramirez for a lesser bat or two, but getting rid of THE BEST LEADOFF HITTER IN THE GAME, a team leader, the face of the team, and perhaps the most popular Red Sox player since Rice or Boggs??? I mean, Damon even took Pedro's place in the hearts of Sox fans in about the time it took the Accella to drop him at Times Square. What gives???

From Soxygirl:

Thanks, John Henry, Larry, Ben and Jed. You look like the world's biggest morons now. But you don't have to deal with Yankee fans day to day, now do you? So we're taking all the crap for you.

The next time that you hear from someone that the Yankees overpaid for Johnny Damon, point them to these quotes and tell them that you can buy this type of public relations for your enemy's camp.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:25 PM | Comments (12)

Francona On Damon Tonight

I heard Terry Francona on WFAN (1050 AM) in NYC tonight, around six-oh-five (pm EST), during my ride home.

He said that Damon "is a great player and an even better person." He said that Damon is very "conscientious" and told a story about how Damon would call him (Terry) on his cell phone the morning after he was banged up in a game to let him know that he (Terry) should hold him (Damon) in the line-up because he would be ready to play that night.

First off, for Francona to say this type of stuff tonight show his class. Secondly, this is a side of Damon that Yankees fans never had a chance to see up close.

I think we're going to like this guy.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 06:57 PM | Comments (7)

Lawton: New York Pressure Got To Me

From the USA Today:

"It was such a stupid thing, but I was desperate," Lawton told Sports Weekly during his first interview since being suspended 10 days by Major League Baseball for violating its steroids policy. "Maybe it was the pressure of playing in New York, I don't know. I never had the urge to take any of that stuff before, but I was talking to some guys, and they guaranteed it would get the pain out."

Lawton, who says he had always taken pride in being clean and that he had never even taken amphetamines, was injected with the veterinary steroid boldenone.

"I wasn't playing well enough to be on a Little League roster, let alone be on the roster of the New York Yankees," Lawton said. "I just wasn't physically able to do the job. I had never been in the playoff hunt before. So I did something that will always haunt me."

Lawton took the steroid injection Sept. 20 in New York. Because he hadn't been tested for steroids all season, he figured he was safe.

Lawton showed up at Yankee Stadium the next day and learned he was starting in center field. He took batting practice and couldn't believe the difference. He felt no pain. He drove the ball to all fields. He hit the ball into the seats. Lawton recalls Yankees manager Joe Torre joking, "Where did this guy come from?"

In the lineup for the first time in a week, Lawton hit a home run off Orioles starting pitcher Rodrigo Lopez in his first at-bat. He went 2-for-3 with two RBI. The Yankees won 2-1 to move past the Red Sox into first place.

"It was weird, after that one shot, I felt fresh again," Lawton said. "Maybe it was mental, I don't know, but the ball started jumping off my bat again. I suddenly had oomph."

The next day, MLB tested Lawton for steroids. He had only three more at-bats the rest of the season, and the Yankees left him off their playoff roster.

Funny, at the time, the Yankees announcers said that it was Mattingly working with Lawton that led to that homerun.

This is sorta/kinda scary because the same announcers give Donnie the credit for turning Giambi around this season too. But, to Jason's defense, he's passed every test thrown at him. Then again, maybe what he's taking is a little more stealth than a veterinary steroid?

No, no, no, no - I'm not saying that Giambi is living his life via his T-Shirt philosophy. I'm just suggesting that you have to consider all possible causes for a turnaround - and not just buy what the YES-boys are saying.

Look at Lawton for an example.

Perhaps worst of all is the line in the USA Today report that reads:

Lawton says he talked to friends and teammates and then made a telephone call that he will regret forever.

Geez, were they Yankees teammates? That might just be the worst news out of this whole story.

I hope it's not something that comes up in 2006.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:16 PM | Comments (4)

Jeter & Damon

Just three weeks ago, I said that it would not shock me to see Johnny Damon only have three more productive seasons left in his career.

Today, I saw something - outside of the news that Damon signed with the Yankees - that makes me hope that I'm very wrong with those findings from three weeks ago.

I was running some sorts on the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia to see what batters in history have had seasons like Damon's in 2005 - at the same age (31) he was last season. And, I found this pairing:

Yes, both Jeter and Damon were 31-years-old in 2005. And, as the relative batting metrics show, they had just about the same season with the bat last year (in terms of effectiveness).

So, then, do all those Yankees fans out there (like me, three weeks ago) who think that Damon is the type to start sliding downward with the bat over the next few years also think that Derek Jeter is going to be toast at the plate come 2008?

Now, granted, if you compare Jeter and Damon coming into 2005, say, from 1996 through 2004, you see that Derek has been a much better performer than Johnny:

And, that's the reason why many would say that Jeter has a higher chance at starring longer than Damon - because his resume is richer.

Still, think of it this way: If you were a doctor, and you had two patients of the same age - one with a very healthy childhood and the other who was not so lucky as him (but generally OK) - and, on one given day (the same day) you found them to be exact mirror images of each other (in terms of conditioning), could you say (with confidence) on that given day that one patient would out-live the other because the other guy had the chicken pox when he was six and a broken arm when he was ten?

It would not make sense to say that - because, at the moment, the patients are equal. What happened in the past is history and has no bearing on their condition today. You need to look at them now to make a projection.

Therefore, before anyone (including me) decides today that Johnny's life as an effective batter is going to be short one, we need to also consider where Damon is now, in 2005, and see if there's any signs of concern.

And, if you think Derek Jeter was a good lead-off hitter in 2005, then so was Johnny Damon. And, the Johnny Damon from 2005 was pretty much the same Damon as every year since 1999 (sans 2001 and 2003 when he slumped). Johnny's usually good for an OPS about 50-80 points above average and around 1.5 runs created per game above average - and that's what he's been 5 of the last 7 years. And, that's pretty much what Jeter has done the last 5 years as well.

I have to say, now, there's just a good of a chance of Damon to keep doing his thing going forward as there is for Derek Jeter. And, if you believe that Jeter is going to stay an effective batter for a while - then you should think the same about Damon.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:05 PM | Comments (11)

Jeter Will Not Be Bunting

I'm amazed at how many Red Sox fans on the Internet are saying (along the lines of) "Good, now that Damon will be batting in front of Jeter, we don't have to worry about Derek - he'll be laying down sac-bunts all the time."

Hey, the last time that Jeter had a lead-off batter of quality in front of him was Knoblauch, circa 1998-2001.

And, in 1998 Jeter had three sac-hits. And, he had the same number (3) in 1999 and 2000. Lastly, in 2001, Jeter laid down a whopping five sac-bunts.

I have to laugh at anyone who believes that Jeter will be bunting all the time now.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:08 AM | Comments (1)

Cashman Can Thank L.A. & Lucchino For Damon

Brian Cashman played poker on this Free Agent pick-up - and won.

The minute that Kenny Lofton signed with the Dodgers, that closed the Damon market to two teams - the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Knowing this, Cashman told Damon's agent, Scott Boras, we're going to trade for a CF now, unless Damon wants to sign now, for much less than the seven years that you're looking for (as reported).

Boras knew the Red Sox offer - 4 years for $40-42 million. So, at this point, he had to tell his client "We're never going to get 7 years. We're only going to get four - in New York or Boston. And, if the Yankees trade for a CF, then Boston has us by the short ones. We need to get the most money that we can on a four-year deal."

And, when the Yankees came in with $52 million, meaning three million a year more than Lucchino was willing to go on his offer (on the table), it became clear that New York was the place to go - - unless Damon wanted to give Boston a $10-12 million "hometown" discount. Hey, he ain't that much of an idiot.

Did Cashman really have a deal for a CF - and was ready to pull the trigger? It's possible - and, if not, hey, a bluff is a bluff - and a good one when it works.

I just hope this is not a case of Damon wanting to go somewhere other than New York - but the money in Yankeeland was just that much more than he could get anywhere else.

The best thing for Damon to do is to produce, out of the gate, for the Yankees. It will get the fans on his side and that always makes your life pleasant in this town. And, when life is hassle-free, and you're making $13 million a year, feeling good about your choice is easier than Tara Reid after being locked in a liquor store overnight.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:31 AM | Comments (9)

December 20, 2005

Damon Now A Yankee?

I just saw this link over at BaseballThinkFactory.org - from CBS 4 in Boston:

(CBS4) BOSTON CBS4's Dan Roche is reporting that Johnny Damon has agreed to a four-year deal with the New York Yankees.

Story to come.

(© MMV, CBS Broadcasting, Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

It was posted there, at the CBS site, at 10:23 pm EST. It's now almost 40 minutes later. If true, you think it would be all over the place in that amount of time.

Very interesting though.

UPDATE, 12/20 11:10 pm EST: The AP is running with this now too:

NEW YORK (AP) -- The New York Yankees grabbed center fielder Johnny Damon away from the rival Boston Red Sox, reaching a preliminary agreement Tuesday night on a $52 million, four-year contract.

Details of the deal were still being negotiated and Damon must pass a physical, a baseball official said on condition of anonymity because negotiations were not yet final.

I guess that "before X-mas" vibe that I had was not so far off after all!

UPDATE, 12/20 11:15 pm EST: Newsday's got it now as well:

Johnny Damon and the Yankees have agreed to a four-year, $52 million deal, Newsday has learned.

I said in the past that I would have been OK with three years. I guess four is close enough to three.

One thing is for sure - the guy is not going to melt in the media. That won't be an issue. And, he's another bat - and that will help.

The money? Thirteen million a year seems like a lot. But, if it was ten a year, that would have been a good deal for the Yankees. So, what's another three a year on top of that? Bernie made $12 million last year. It's almost a wash.

UPDATE, 12/20 11:32 pm EST: Just something to sleep on now, from the database at BaseballMusings.com - Damon's recent numbers at Yankee Stadium:

Meanwhile, Johnny was an on-base machine at Fenway Park the last four years.

That is a tad concerning. Then again, Wade Boggs made the adjustment in 1993 with no problem.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:57 PM | Comments (11)

El Doctor Pulpo Is In

From FOXSports.com:

Dotel signs with Yankees
Ken Rosenthal / FOXSports.com
Posted: 2 minutes ago

Free-agent reliever Octavio Dotel has signed with the Yankees, FOXSports.com has learned.

MORE TO COME

Why do I think he's going to need a robotic arm to be of any use?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:32 PM | Comments (2)

Wang For Reed?

From the Seattle Times:

Even with Jarrod Washburn in the rotation, the Mariners are still in the trade market for another starting pitcher.

And while outfielder Jeremy Reed may be the leading candidate to go in any deal, the Boston Red Sox aren't the only possible destination.

An industry source maintains that the New York Yankees are another possible trading partner.

"Watch the situation with Johnny Damon," the source said. "Seattle could wind up trading Reed to the club that doesn't get Damon to play center."

Yet a second source said that Seattle, even with Washburn getting $37.5 million over four years, might be willing to take on a pitcher with a sizeable salary.

That could be the Red Sox's Matt Clement or the Yankees' Carl Pavano. But more to the Mariners' liking and payroll situation would be the Red Sox's Bronson Arroyo, who made $1.85 million in 2005 and is not eligible for free agency for three more seasons, or the Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang, who was a rookie in 2005.

Imagine if Cashman hangs on to Pavano to deal Wang instead for Reed. Oh, that would get ugly in a hurry.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:25 PM | Comments (9)

Left Behind At The Dotel

I decided to take another look at the potential new Yankee, Octavio Dotel.

Since he was injured in 2005, it makes sense to throw out his 2005 stats.

Looking at his 2004 numbers, thanks to the sortable database at BaseballMusings.com, I noticed something concerning.

Here is Dotel pitching to right-handed batters:

Dotel kills RH batters - even last year, when he was hurt. How does Octavio do against left-handed batters? Here's the answer:

This is interesting. In 2004, all of a sudden, LH batters, while not hitting well often against Dotel, when they did hit him they did a lot of damage - look at his slugging percentage allowed.

If the intent is to limit Dotel to just facing RH batters in 2006, to combat his new issue with LH batters, why not just use Scott Proctor in that role instead?

Gosh, I never thought that I would see the day that I would prefer Proctor over anyone in the Yankees pen. But, Dotel just might be that one.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:11 PM | Comments (5)

Negative Remark-a-bles

I was looking at Rich Lederer's Overrated Offensive Players feature today and I got an idea. Actually, it was more of a question.

Who, in their Yankees career, had a below average mark in batting average, on-base average, and slugging percentage? And, who in that group had the worst 'sum' of all those negative marks?

Well, thanks to the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and Excel, here's the list that I came up with - as an answer to that question:

Anyone who reads this blog on a regular basis should not be shocked to see Pee Wee Wanninger on the top of the chart. And, seeing Joel Skinner's name should not be a surprise.

And, don't even get me started again about Enrique Wilson and Tony Womack.

Further, as much as I have complained in the past about David Cone's 2000 season, maybe I should have also opined some about the impact of having Clay Bellinger's 209 Plate Appearances on the 2000 Yankees stats?

Now, what about the 2005 Yankees? Were there any "below average hat trickers" there? Check this out, also from the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia:

That's 1,379 Plate Appearances given to mega-under-performers. Is that a lot? Well, it was 21.5% of the Yankees total Plate Appearances in 2005. Or, in other words, in one out of every five plate appearances by a Yankee last year, an inferior batter was at the plate.

And, the Yankees were still 2nd in the majors last year in runs scored. With a decent bench, New York might have scored 1,000 runs last year - something baseball has not seen since the 1999 Indians. (And, Cleveland was the first team to do that since the 1950 Red Sox.)

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:35 PM | Comments (5)

Sherman Rips Farnsworth Signing

From the Post:

REARRANGE the letters in Kyle Farnsworth's name and I believe you spell "Mark Wohlers" or "Jay Witasick." The centerpiece to an altered Yankees bullpen, therefore, is another strapping, fireballing righty who fits in The Bronx as well as tumbleweeds.

Farnsworth has the kind of jittery postseason ledger that Kenny Rogers would laugh at, and has a better chance of winding up on the trade block, come June, than being viewed as a formidable bridge to Mariano Rivera.

So the Yanks needed to win a minor bidding war with the Indians, Mets and Red Sox to secure Octavio Dotel, who should be ready to pitch in the majors about June 1, following Tommy John surgery.

In the best scenario for the Yanks, Farnsworth really has grown up and has better control of his life and fastball, and is thriving in the eighth inning. That would enable Dotel to work in the seventh inning and give the Yankees a Nasty Boy look late in games.

In the more likely worst scenario, the Yanks are trying to figure out how much of Farnsworth's contract to eat in order to deal him to the Royals in midseason. In that scenario, the Yanks will be glad if they have secured Dotel for protection. Dotel is certainly a risk, but for about $2 million, he is far less risky than $18 million for Farnsworth.

Sounds like Dotel's agent sent Sherman a nice holiday basket of cheer.

Why wait three weeks after he signed to rip Farnsworth? Vey odd timing here.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:16 AM | Comments (5)

December 19, 2005

Octavio Dotel

Reportedly, the Yankees are after Octavio Dotel - and many Yankees fans are happy about this news.

Not me.

When I think of Dotel, I think "Dominican Rob Dibble."

They're both hot-heads. And, just like Dibble was on top of the world from 1988-90, Dotel was too (from 2001-03). Further, just like Dibble flamed out with injury, so did Dotel.

Dibble never came back. And, I suspect that Dotel will not as well.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:04 PM | Comments (14)

RIP: Barry Halper

From the Daily News:

Barry Halper, the New Jersey businessman and limited partner in the Yankees who amassed what has been acclaimed as the most extensive and valuable collection of baseball memorabilia, died yesterday from complications of diabetes. He was 66.

In all, the Halper collection, which was ultimately sold at auction by Sotheby's in 1999, contained over 100,000 pieces ranging from the truly historic (Babe Ruth's famous camel hair coat, Shoeless Joe Jackson's "black Betsey" bat, the papers of correspondence between Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert and Red Sox owner Harry Frazee on the sale of Ruth in 1919), to the truly bizarre (the rifle Ty Cobb's mother used to shoot his father, Cy Young's dentures, and a weather vane that had rested on the roof of a Waterbury, Conn., factory that had once been the home of 19th century Hall of Famer Roger Connor).

At his press conference in Dallas in 1994 announcing his successful liver transplant, Mantle spotted Halper in the audience and cracked: "Hey, Barry, did you get my other liver?"

In addition to his baseball connections - he briefly served as CEO of the Yankees - Halper was a trustee for the St. Barnabas Hospital burn unit in Livingston, and raised tens of thousands of dollars for that institution by having his baseball friends, DiMaggio, Rose et al, speak at fundraisers.

When Halper sold his stuff, I felt terrible for him. As a collector, I would have to imagine that part of the thrill is thinking that the collection would remain in the family for years. But, a year after he sold his memorabilia, I saw the following clip on "why" -

The auction of Barry Halper's baseball memorabilia last year featured some of the most unique items from the national pastime ever assembled.

Had Halper's collection remained intact and put in a museum, it would have rivaled that of the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, N.Y.

Halper wanted to see the collection kept together, but when that did not come to fruition he decided to part with it via an auction conducted by Sotheby's.

"I hated to break it up, but in fairness to my family it needed to be done," Halper, 60, said in a recent phone interview from his home in New Jersey.

Halper recalled reading about the struggles the family of former Miami Dolphins owner Joe Robbie went through when he died because of the taxes involved.

"I vowed that wouldn't happen," Halper said.

Halper gave the Hall of Fame first shot at any items in his collection. Major League Baseball reportedly paid $7.5 million to $8 million for about 20 percent of the collection and donated it to the Hall of Fame.

When you think of all the work and pride that went into a collection like his, there's no amount of money that can make up for that.

It almost makes me want to say - if you have some good "stuff" like his, just keep it quiet, and give it to your family before you pass, and tell them to enjoy it in quiet too - and save yourself some grief.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:42 AM | Comments (1)

December 18, 2005

A Chance To Get "Big Abuji"?

From Donga.com -

Within two years, will this be the third time Choi Hee-seop switches teams?

It is being predicted that 26-year-old Choi Hee-seop will leave the Los Angeles Dodgers. Major League Baseball’s official website classified eight players, including Choi Hee-seop and Cory Paterson of the Chicago Cubs, as “expected non-tenders.”

A non-tendered designation means a player has not received a contract renewal offer from his team.

A third year major leaguer like Choi Hee-seop earns the right to apply for an annual salary adjustment. If the team abandons his application for salary adjustment, he becomes a ‘non-tender’, or a free agent.

Oh, my. Dig this:

Choi was 26 last year. To date, in 1,086 career PA, he has 10 RCAA, and OWP of .531, his ISO is .197 and his SEC is .354. Lastly, his career BPA is .496.

David Ortiz was 26 in his last year with the Twins (2002) before he joined the Red Sox. Through that age, and the 2002 season, in 1,693 PA, Ortiz had 14 RCAA, an OWP of .524, an ISO of .195, and a SEC of .324. And, his BPA mark was .498.

They are twins!

Throw your hands in the air, if youse a true player -
I love it when you call me Big Abuji!

Choi would be the perfect DH, sometimes 1B, for the Yankees next year. Plus, with him, Wang, and Matsui, the Yankees would have shirts selling all over the place - Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

This is a no-brainer to me.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:01 PM | Comments (6)

Way To Go Oh-High-Oh

Yes, the Big Stein was born in Ohio. As was Yankees-brain-legend Gene Michael. And, Roger Clemens was born in Ohio - but was raised in Texas.

But, have you ever noticed how many big hits in Yankees history came from players born in Ohio? Jim Leyritz, Tommy Henrich, Thurman Munson, Paul O'Neill, David Justice, Chris Chambliss and Gene Woodling were all born in Ohio.

Have I mentioned that Todd Hollandsworth is from Ohio?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:05 AM | Comments (0)

December 17, 2005

Looking For Bargains

Now that it appears that Nomar Garciaparra will not be the "other bat" that the Yankees will need, in my opinion, for 2006, Cashman & Company need to look for another solution. I think that I have one for them.

This is a left-handed batter who will be 33-years-old next season. While he's been primarily a LF in his career, he's also spent time in RF and CF - as well as a handful of games at 1B. He's not a Gold Glover in the field - but, he's no Matt Lawton either. He's not going to kill you if you need to play him in the field once and a while.

More so, I'm looking at this player as a D.H. for the Yankees next season - with the option of him being someone who can give Matsui or Sheffield a day off here and there (as well as play some CF or 1B in a pinch). Here's the catch - as a DH, he'll have to platoon with Andy Phillips. Why? Look at his splits the last few seasons:

2005:
vs. RHP - .237/.289/.366 in 262 AB
vs. LHP - .293/.356/.415 in 41 AB

2004:
vs. RHP - .313/.396/.550 in 131 AB
vs. LHP - .353/.353/.529 in 17 AB

2003 - which was played in a pitcher's park:
vs. RHP - .255/.321/.429 in 196 AB
vs. LHP - .250/.294/.375 in 32 AB

2002 - which was played in a hitter's park:
vs. RHP - .292/.350/.485 in 373 AB
vs. LHP - .228/.302/.316 in 57 AB

As you can see, this player has hit RH pitching fair enough (all things considered - like park factors) in the past - with the exception of last year. Still, when you drill down his 2005 numbers, maybe there's a reason for what happened.

In the first half of last year, he went .269/.316/.423, overall, against all pitching, in 208 ABs. These numbers are pretty close to his career norm.

Then, from July 7th through July 25th, he went into a slump (over 13 games played for him) where he went 5 for 40 - a batting average of .125 over a span of roughly three weeks. While slumps happen to the best of hitters, this one killed his chances in 2005 - because after that time he was only allowed to get more than 2 ABs in a game eight times over the remaining 60-something games that his team played. Further, in 29 of the games that he played after July 25th, he was only allowed to get one AB in the game played.

It's very hard to get your stroke/timing back when you get about one AB per game. Therefore, I'm willing to consider that his 2005 numbers against RHP are not a sign that he lost it. And, given his performance against RHP from 2002 through 2004, there's enough to suggest that this player is someone who could be an effective half of a D.H. platoon for the Yankees in 2006 - from the left side.

Plus, he's a free agent this winter who was not offered salary arbitration by his team. Therefore, to acquire him, all it would cost the Yankees is money. And, it would not be a ton of money - because the last three years, his salary has been around a million dollars for the season (on average).

The player is Todd Hollandsworth.

Yes, I know that he's been injury-prone in the past. But, perhaps, as a D.H. that plays three-quarters of the time with the Yankees, batting in the lower third of the line-up, he would be less of an injury risk due to the limited exposure.

At the very least, given there is not a huge demand for his services at the moment, it would be wise for the Yankees to invite him to Spring Training on a "look-see" basis. There's little down-side with that idea - and there's achance that he could be someone who could chip in 15 HR and 65 RBI over the course of the season (in part-time duty).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:05 PM | Comments (2)

Forget Nomar

It might have been even money four days ago, but, I'm telling you now - Nomar is going to sign with the Dodgers. Check this AP report:

Nomar Garciaparra met with Los Angeles Dodgers executives Thursday and Friday, and is expected to decide soon on his future.

The 32-year-old Garciaparra also is considering the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros, but the Dodgers might have an advantage because Garciaparra and his wife, former soccer star Mia Hamm, live in suburban Manhattan Beach.

"Nomar continues to talk with players, friends and family members," Garciaparra's agent, Arn Tellem, said in an e-mail Friday. "He is weighing his options carefully and while he has no plans on making a decision today, he intends to do so in the near future."

Garciaparra and Tellem met Thursday with Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, general manager Ned Colletti and senior vice president Tom Lasorda.

"We met again today. He came out again today with Mia," Colletti said on a conference call late Friday. "I can tell you from my perspective both meetings were very good. They took the time to come out here two days in a row."

Colletti told reporters Wednesday he had made an offer to Garciaparra. When asked if he was optimistic, Colletti replied: "I don't have any comment on that. I don't get optimistic until a player signs. Too many things happen."

He lives there. Little and Mueller are there - Lowe too. He's going to decide soon - and has met with the Dodgers twice now (whereas he's never met in person with the Yankees). It's not going to happen in New York. Nomar will be a Dodger in 2006. The Yankees better start thinking about their next plan.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:17 PM | Comments (6)

A-Rod Back To WBC?

From the Post:

Gene Orza believes Alex Rodriguez will change his mind and participate in the inaugural World Baseball Classic in March.
One day after A-Rod told The Post he didn't want to dishonor America or the Dominican Republic, Orza, the No. 2 man in the Players Association, predicted A-Rod would be part of the WBC.

"I think Alex Rodriguez will play in the WBC," the COO of the Players Association said yesterday.

Orza has a strong relationship with A-Rod and believes the final chapter on the saga hasn't been written.

"I wouldn't categorize it as Alex Rodriguez isn't going to play," said Orza, who hadn't spoken to A-Rod by early last night but planned to within 24 hours. "I don't believe this is the final word on this matter. It's a sincere dilemma he faces. Does he play for the Dominican Republic or does he play for USA? I know he is dedicated to international baseball and how important it is."

Orza plans to meet with A-Rod and is confident A-Rod will change his mind.

"I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to play," Orza said. "We will help him in who he represents. We have our views on where he should play. MLB and the commissioner are interested in where he plays."

Great, just what the Yankees and their fans need - another soap opera opportunity for A-Rod. Thank you World Baseball Classic.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:39 AM | Comments (4)

December 16, 2005

Ben Julianel For Ron Villone

From the AP tonight:

Ron Villone went to his first game at Yankee Stadium in 1976, when New York was starting a run of four AL pennants and two World Series titles in a six-season span.

He remembers watching Ron Guidry pitch and Don Mattingly hit. Now Guidry is his new pitching coach after the Yankees acquired him from the Florida Marlins on Friday for minor league pitcher Ben Julianel.

"It was a great stage to play on," Villone said. "The Yankees were the best team. You always wanted to be a part of it. I guess today I get to live that dream a little bit."

He grew up in Edgewater, N.J., and lives now in Upper Saddle River, a short drive to the ballpark. The 35-year-old left-hander was a combined 2-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 79 games last season for the Seattle Mariners and the Marlins, who acquired him at the July 31 trade deadline.

"It starts to form something we're very comfortable with," said Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, who had tried to sign Villone last winter and acquire him from Seattle last summer. "He's versatile. He can spot start, he can long relieve, he can situational lefty. He has the ability to do all of those without complaint, and that's attractive."

The Yankees have been looking at Villone for a while. And, last year, LH batters went .222/.326/.256 against him in 117 ABs. In 2004, they went .203/.314/.287 in 143 ABs. And, in 2003, they went .267/.345/.475 in 101 ABs - but he pitched half of that year in Colorado. In 2002, they went .233/.301/.333 in 120 ABs.

Villone does not do an excellent job against RH batters. In fact, I do not believe that you want him pitching to a righty with the game on the line - at least not on a regular basis.

Still, it's more than safe to say that Villone can get lefties out. That's good.

Ben Julianel is a lefty RP with a nasty change up - the Yankees got him from St. Louis in 2003 for Sterling Hitchcock. But, he'll be 26 next year, has never pitched in Triple-A yet, and needs to work on his control.

If the Yankees use Villone in a role where he can do well - like a lefty specialist - this is a good trade. If they use him as a long-man or spot starter, he'll just be average. Still, that's a lot better than Scott Proctor.

I like this trade.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:40 PM | Comments (6)

Mo Speaks!

From the The News-Times:

Rivera was being introduced in the high school auditorium as approximately 700 fans welcomed his appearance Thursday night on behalf of the Ridgefield Friends of Best Buddies.

"It's a pleasure for me to be here," Rivera said, speaking to a gathering comprised of wide-eyed little kids and gray-haired Yankee fanatics.

Considered the greatest closer of all time and a future Hall of Famer, Rivera took part in the fundraiser at the behest of Angelo Formisano, the Ridgefield High softball coach.

"I was here before, so he told me about it and I said, 'Yeah, of course.' If I can help make a kid smile and be happy, why not?" Rivera said during a brief interview.

"I always do the most that I can. It's an honor and my pleasure to do that. I've been blessed enough so I'd like to bless others," he added.

With patience, thoughtfulness and humor, Rivera answered questions from eager youngsters for more than an hour.

Kevin Schmidt, a 10-year-old from Newtown, asked the first question: "What do you do when you're not playing baseball?"

"Really, nothing," Rivera said with a smile. "I try to spend time with my family."

Someone asked Rivera to name the toughest batter he's faced.

"Edgar Martinez," he replied, referring to the former Seattle designated hitter. "He's retired, thank God."

His greatest memory? Winning his first World Series title in 1996.

"I'm proud to be a Yankee," he said, drawing loud applause.

His favorite sport?

"I love to play soccer. Don't tell George, though," he said, drawing laughter with his reference to the Yankees' owner, George Steinbrenner.

Rivera got serious when asked for any tips on becoming a major leaguer.

"First, stay in school," he said. "And if you have the dream, go for it."

And, to think, Mo managed all this without the need for an Antonio Belize by his side!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:31 PM | Comments (0)

Bubba Can Really Chase It Down

David Gassko of The Hardball Times recently came up with a way to measure a player's range in the field. It's called Runs Above Average - or "RAA" for short.

And, anyone who bought a copy of The Hardball Times Annual 2006 also gets online access to 2005 RAA stats for everyone who played last season.

So, I decided to use this data to look at those who played at least 100 innings in CF last year to see who had the best range.

When you look at RAA on a "Per 150 Games" ratio, Bubba Crosby was by far the leader of the pack. Here's all the leaders, min. 100 innings, per 150 games, in CF RAA last year:

If you're interested in how "other" Yankees centerfielders did in this stat last year, here they are:

Cabrera, M -93.6
Womack, T -41.1
Matsui, H -38.4
Williams, B -20.6

And, no, those are not dashes - they're negative numbers.

If the Yankees really just want a guy to catch the ball in CF during 2006, Bubba is not a bad choice - in fact, he's a great choice. Just be sure to tell the LF and the RF to get out of his way.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:34 PM | Comments (4)

Zippity Do Derek

Am I the only one who thinks "Holy Fred McGriff Tom Emanski Batman!" every time he sees the Jeter commerical for Zip-N-Hit?

And, yes, I'm probably going to buy one for my kids anyway.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:00 PM | Comments (3)

Laying It On The Line

One of the fun things about The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 is the studies that they do with Plate Appearance Outcome data from Baseball Info Solutions.

For example, in the book they list the percentages of walks, whiffs, groundballs, flyballs, infield flies, and line drives produced by hitters and allowed by pitchers in 2005. Of these choices, line drives are the key for me because, as the book tells us, each line drive is worth .356 of a run - which is the biggest "run impacting outcome" of all the results.

If you buy the book, you also get information on how to find this data online. So, today, I decided to look at the 2005 "line drive" results for all the Yankees hitters and pitchers. Here it is:

According to the book, the major league average "line drive" percentage was 15%.

The one result that jumps out the most to me here is how below average A-Rod is in his percentage. (For the record, David Ortiz was at 15% last year.) Now, some might say "Well, Alex hits mostly flyballs and most of them go a long way." But, in truth, according to the data, Rodriguez hit a flyball 24% of the time - which was not even tops on the Yankees. Matsui, Sheffield, Posada and Williams each hit flies more frequently than Alex.

What Rodriguez did often was strike out - 19% of the time. Among "regulars" on the team, only Sierra (23%) and Giambi (20%) were worse. In fact, Alex whiffed as often (19%) as John Flaherty in 2005.

Giambi is pretty much in the A-Rod boat - in terms of whiffs and liners. But, to his credit, Jason walked 23% of the time (compared to Alex's 15% in walks).

On the pitching-side, there were less surprises for me. One thing I did notice is the placement of Pavano, Mussina, Small and Chacón on this list - just about league average. If their line drives allowed in 2005 is any sign as to what to expect in 2006, the Yankees may be looking at a long summer in the Bronx. This is just another indicator of how Mussina and Pavano are keys to the Yankees success in 2006.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:01 PM | Comments (6)

Yankee Doodle Dominicans

From mlb.com:

Melky Cabrera continues to impress with his performance in the Dominican Republic this winter, showing the Yankees that he has a bright future.

Cabrera, a 21-year-old Dominican, is playing for Las Aguilas Cibaeñas this winter. Cabrera is hitting .298 (25-for-84) with six doubles, one triple, 11 RBIs, five stolen bases and an impressive .375 on-base percentage through the first 31 games of the season.

Cabrera has walked 11 times and struck out nine times, a great improvement from his 37 walks and 87 strikeouts in 132 games with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Columbus in 2005.

Two pitchers from the Yankees' system also are honing their skills in the Dominican: Jorge De Paula and Elvys Quezada.

De Paula is pitching for Escogido, posting a 3.12 ERA in five games. In 17 1/3 innings, De Paula has held opponents to a .246 average, striking out 11 while walking five. The right-hander came back last year from Tommy John surgery to pitch 25 games in the Minors and three with the Yankees.

De Paula was 4-2 with a 4.58 ERA in 21 games (20 starts) with Columbus. He struck out 90 batters in 116 innings. In his three relief appearances with the Yankees, De Paula posted an 8.10 ERA in 6 2/3 innings.

Quezada has appeared in four games for Las Aguilas, posting a 2.84 ERA in 6 1/3 innings. Quezada has allowed nine hits and two walks, striking out five.

In 19 games (four starts) with Class A Tampa, Quezada went 4-1 with one save and a 5.94 ERA. Quezada also pitched 16 games (one start) for Class A Charleston, going 1-1 with a 1.95 ERA. In 79 1/3 innings for the two teams, Quezada struck out 87 batters.

Es todo bueno!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:32 PM | Comments (1)

A-Rod & The WBC

I just noticed this link over at Bronx Banter to an article in the Post where A-Rod says:

"After thoughtful deliberations with my family, I am announcing my decision to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic," A-Rod told The Post from Miami. "When faced with the decision to choose between my country, the United States of America, and my Dominican heritage, I decided I will not dishonor either."

That's a big 180 from 5 months ago. I wonder if someone outside the family had any influence on the decision too?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:42 AM | Comments (7)

Joel Sherman's "Birth of a Dynasty"

Next April, Rodale Books will be releasing "Birth of a Dynasty: A Behind-the-Pinstripes Look at How the 1996 Yankees of Torre, Jeter, Cone, Rivera, Doc, and Darryl came Together to Spark One of the Greatest Runs in Baseball History" by Joel Sherman.

Rodale is the same group that brought us Pete Rose's "My Prison Without Bars."

I wonder if Sherman's book will have any insightful and not generally publicly known tales. If it does, it could be a fun read.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:26 AM | Comments (0)

December 15, 2005

Womack: Not My Bad

From mlb.com -

"I had no control over a lot of what happened last season," he said. "The changes weren't made because I did anything wrong. They took an opportunity away from me and asked me to be a bench guy. I didn't whine about it. I still needed to get my work in."

Womack batted .249 with 15 RBIs in 108 games, but only 80 starts.

"I'm going to put a question mark next to last season's numbers on my baseball card," he said. "They took the whole season from me."

Womack must be an ancestor of King Tut - because he's living in de-Nile.

"The changes weren't made because I did anything wrong."

"They took the whole season from me."

Yeah, Tony, you were sooooo smooth around second base that the Yankees were out of their minds to move you. And, with the bat, well, you were sooooo productive at the plate, at all times, that the minute you were benched the Yankees went on a long losing streak.

Wait a second. What? Oh, the Yankees played better baseball last year as a team once you were buried for good on the great Yankees pines? Wow, that's weird, huh?

Wake up, Tony, and smell the putrid stench that was your performance in 2005. The Yankees were not your enemy. It was the pavement that was your enemy - the same one that you smacked into, replicating the impact sound of a morbidly obese bullfrog with a full bladder dropped off the Empire State Building, when your miserable production failed to allow you to keep standing among the rest of the major leaguers on the Yankees roster.

Whew, OK. I feel better now.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:20 PM | Comments (4)

Santa Stein

From the St. Pete Times -

For the 17th consecutive year, the Steinbrenner family has staged its annual Christmas Holiday Concerts. More than 2,000 students from Pinellas County public schools heard the orchestra play holiday songs Wednesday. Last week, an equal number of Hillsborough students came to a show at the Tampa Bay Performing Arts Center.

Equally important to Steinbrenner is the reaction of the students. He got a standing ovation on Wednesday and reveled over how the kids were active participants, singing carols and clapping along with the percussion section.

At the end of the concert, the kids received an Adidas Yankees bag with 10 gifts, including a T-shirt and cap.

Philanthropy is a Steinbrenner trademark, and many of his acts of goodwill go unpublicized. The Boss said his motivation is rooted in benevolence.

"I've been lucky enough to be successful, and I want to pass it on," Steinbrenner said. "I don't want to die with all this money. I want to give to the people.

"I don't want to be the richest man in the cemetery."

Wow. Christmas spirit sans Anna Benson's blouse puppies. It can happen!

More importantly, it's G.S.'s line of "I don't want to die with all this money" that hits me. I believe it. I just hope that when his son-in-law is in charge that we continue to see that spirit.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 05:09 PM | Comments (4)

They're Almost All Gone

I was just thinking about the 1998-2001 Yankees - the team that made it to the World Series four years in a row, winning 3 rings, and coming within 3 outs of winning four World Championships in a row. To my knowledge, there are just 13 men who played on all four of those Yankees teams. Here's the list and where they are now:

El Duque Hernandez - now pitching in Arizona
Scott Brosius - retired
Derek Jeter - still going strong in New York
Chuck Knoblauch - retired
Ramiro Mendoza - getting close to being retired
Paul O'Neill - retired
Andy Pettitte - now starring in Houston
Jorge Posada - still in New York through 2007
Mariano Rivera - still going strong in New York
Luis Sojo - retired
Shane Spencer - for all I know, he's retired
Mike Stanton - should be retired
Bernie Williams - should be retired

When you look at how many from those teams are retired, near retirement, or should be retired, it helps you realize just how long it's been since we saw the last great Yankees team.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:50 AM | Comments (6)

Pirate Raid

From the Free Lance-Star:

THE RICHEST TEAM in baseball usually doesn't try to raid one of the poorest for talent. That's why Tony Beasley thought someone was kidding when he was told the New York Yankees wanted to interview him.

The Yankees had an opening for their Triple-A managerial job in Columbus, and they were impressed with the job Beasley had done in five years managing in the spendthrift Pittsburgh Pirates' organization. So they called and asked to talk to the Bowling Green native.

He didn't get that job--it went to former Cincinnati Reds skipper Dave Miley--but the Yankees liked Beasley enough to hire him as a roving minor-league fielding instructor.

I wonder if he'll be as good at listening to problems as Mrs. Beasley?

With the contracts of Jeter, A-Rod, and Giambi - and the presence of Cano - it might be a long time until the big league club benefits directly from his work. But, when you look at his track record, it seems like a good idea to have this man on your staff somewhere.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:21 AM | Comments (5)

December 14, 2005

Jorge DePaula's Winter

Here's how Jorge DePaula has started out this winter in Liga de Beisbol Dominicano - 21 games (20 starts) with 116 IP and an ERA of 4.58.

More importantly, his H+BB/IP ratio is 1.29 and he has 90 Ks in those 116 IP.

DePaula will only be 27-years-old next season - which just a year older than Chien-Ming Wang. It will be almost a full two years on Opening Day 2006 since Jorge had his "Tommy John Surgery."

Just watch, he's going to be a contributor to the Yankees staff next year - in some way - before the season is over.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:20 PM | Comments (10)

Dave LaPoint

I was just playing around with the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia - something that I find myself doing just about everyday - looking for a Yankees pitcher who had a season like Carl Pavano's 2005. This is what I found:

It's funny that Dave LaPoint came up. He too, like Pavano, was a "local boy" who signed a Free Agent contract with the Yankees following the season where he was 28-years-old. Granted, Pavano was not as bad as LaPoint in his first season in New York. But, neither of them did well during their first tour with the pinstripes.

LaPoint currently works as the director of player procurement for the Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League.

LaPoint eventually was released by the Yankees following the 1990 season. I hope the Yankees don't have to end up doing the same with Pavano in 2007.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:09 PM | Comments (1)

Damon Getting Closer?

Well, we know that Joe Torre recently called Johnny Damon to sell New York and Joe also just said the following about Johnny:

"We see him, it feels like, every day," Torre said with a laugh. "From the postseason of '04 through the season this year, faced him a thousand times. He has a presence. He certainly is a player that makes things happen. He's got a great deal of ability offensively.

"There's been some question about the strength of his arm, but he's never had a strong arm, even when he was a youngster. But he can track the ball."

And, according to one A.L. East Exec, there's a theory that the Yankees will try and make a last minute big strike on Damon:

While Boston officials this week declared their intention to bring back Damon, their current offer is $40 million for four years, up from $29 million for three years, and Boras reportedly has made $66 million over seven seasons his target.

"They may get it done. Last year, Boras and Boston were far apart on [Jason] Varitek and they got that done," said an East Coast baseball official of the $40 million deal for four years. "But right now it doesn't look real good. And don't forget the Yankees haven't been heard from yet."

The Yankees, who have stated their belief that Bubba Crosby can play center, supposedly have not followed up a declared interest in Damon with an offer.

"They could be waiting to see what Boston's final offer is, and come in and top that," the source said. "It's tough to see the Yanks planning to sit tight in center. Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle and now Bubba Crosby?"

When Boras settled the Varitek deal it was on December 24, 2004 that it was announced. Would he do the Christmas Eve trick again with Damon too? Maybe that's the "before X-mas" vibe that I got yesterday?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:03 PM | Comments (5)

Josh Hollingsworth

Josh Hollingsworth played in an Independent League last year before being picked up by the Yankees on July 30, 2005. And, then he played 18 games at Tampa last year.

You have to wonder why the Yankees would pick up a player like this considering his age - he'll be 26 this season. Do they think that he could be a utility player at the big league level some time this season?

It will be interesting to see if he gets any time in the big league camp this Spring - while Jeter and A-Rod are off at the WBC games. (Josh plays SS and 3B.) If he does well, he might force himself into the 25-man roster picture.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:59 PM | Comments (5)

Jeter & Matsui To Lack Pop In 2006?

I was just reading JC Bradbury's "PrOPS: 2005 and Beyond" feature over at the Hardball Times.

PrOPS is short for "predicted OPS." The system that Bradbury uses is very interesting and recommended reading.

Below are the 2006 PrOPS for notable Yankees, according to his system:

Cano 0.753
Giambi 0.922
Jeter 0.784
Matsui 0.782
Posada 0.784
Rodriguez 0.891
Sheffield 0.854
Williams 0.728

If Derek Jeter posts an OPS of .784 in 2006 it will be one of the worst seasons in his career. Now, an OPS of .784 is not Womack-like. And, Jeter will always reach base - because he always has in the past. I figure this prediction implies that Derek will not have much "pop" in 2006 - sorta like his 1997 and 2002 seasons.

Now, if the Yankees sign Johnny Damon and Jeter bats second and gets lots of fastballs, well, that could make a difference. But, if Jeter leads-off in 2006 and the Yankees 8th and 9th hitters are rarely on, then, perhaps this projection might come true.

Related, note the predicted 2006 OPS for Matsui. That would be a 2003-ish Matsui and not the Godzilla-form circa 2004-2005. If this is true, that's not good.

I wonder if the Yankees look at these types of projections when figuring out how to fill holes in their line-up? It is food for thought - at the least.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:46 AM | Comments (4)

December 13, 2005

Any Day Now?

This is based on a gut feel, so, it's probably nothing. But, when your G.M. starts to meet with scouts at this time of the year, it makes me think that a trade is coming.

It would not shock me if the Yankees had a new CF before Christmas.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:42 PM | Comments (5)

WasWatching.com Guestmap

Just for fun, and in an attempt to see how wide the WasWatching.com readership spans, I've created a Guest Map for WasWatching.com - if you have a minute, please update it with your location.

There's no registration required and you can use whatever handle you like - there's no need to use any personal information (if that's your thing).

To "mark" your location, all you need to do is to "click" on the map where you want it to be noted. And, if you need to go outside what you see on the map, or need to have a closer view to make your correct placement, use the zoom/direction arrows on the left side of the map.

Thanks in advance for your help with this project!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:09 PM | Comments (12)

Can Nomar At The Bat Help The Yankees?

Given the chance that Nomar Garciaparra might join the 2006 Yankees, I decided to take a closer look at his career numbers - to determine which modern batters were like him (to date) in terms of relative production at the same age (with the hope to see if any "like batters" still had some juice in their bat after they turned thirty). Thanks to the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, this is what I found:

I like the David Justice and Jim Edmonds "comps" found here as they also (like Nomar) had some injury speed bumps before their 31st birthdays. And, both of them were able to post some decent years with the bat between ages 32 and 34. This tells me that it would not be without precedent to see someone like Nomar rebound at age 32 to have a decent season with the stick.

If the price is right, and it's nothing more than one or two years on the deal, the Yankees should make a run at Garciaparra - it's not as big a risk as I once thought.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:46 AM | Comments (6)

Nomar's Coming?

From the Post:

Three years ago the odds of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra together in the Yankees' infield were as long as a Beatles reunion.

Today, it's moving toward even money. That's because the Yankees are considering signing the 32-year-old Garciaparra to play first base.

While GM Brian Cashman and agent Arn Tellem refused to confirm or deny an offer has been made by the Yankees to Garciaparra, several industry sources indicated an offer has been made.

I used to say "In baseball, anything can happen, if you would have told me in 1986 that Strawberry and Gooden would play for the Yankees in the future, I would have said you were nuts." Now, I'll have to say, "If you would have told me in 1999 that A-Rod, Jeter and Nomar would all be playing in the Yankees infield together, I would have said you were nuts."

Can Nomar play 1B? I would say no question - yes. Can Nomar still hit? No, there is a huge question about his ability to hit. And, we know asking Giambi to D.H. full-time is a big mistake.

Why not just sign Nomar to an incentive deal and let him D.H. - to help prevent him getting injured? Nah, it makes too much sense.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:07 AM | Comments (3)

Moose Not Feeling Loose?

From the Daily News:

Mike Mussina, who also appeared on WFAN, said he's taken more time off so far this offseason than in years past because of his elbow problems in 2005. He said he's expecting to be fine next year but admitted, "At my age (he's 37), I don't discount it."

Considering that Mussina is a key for the Yankees success in 2006, it's concerning to hear him say, just about 2 months before pitchers report, that he expects to be fine but would not be shocked if he's not.

I hope the Yankees are monitoring him closely and are not just waiting for him to show up in Tampa (and then find out that he's not going to be able to help the team).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 07:57 AM | Comments (4)

December 12, 2005

Yanks Source: M's Reed No Better Than Bubba

From the Seattle P-I:

Speculation on trades between the Mariners and Yankees has often started with the premise that New York would insist on Jeremy Reed's inclusion in any proposal for right-hander Carl Pavano.

Now, that assumption seems outdated. One Yankees source said Sunday that they would not view Reed as a significant upgrade over Bubba Crosby.

Instead, the source said, Seattle would need to make bullpen components -- such as Julio Mateo, J.J. Putz, Rafael Soriano or some combination thereof -- a significant part of any deal for Pavano. New York also likes left fielder/designated hitter Raul Ibanez, but the Mariners would be reluctant to move him.

Don't get me wrong, Raul Ibanez (in 2006) could be a very useful player for the Yankees - playing some DH and backing up at 1B and the OF.

But, to say that Reed is not a "significant upgrade over Bubba Crosby" is insane.

Yes, Reed was a below average performer offensively last season. But, he's was just 24-years-old. When Bubba Crosby was that age he was still two years away from his first big league At Bat. And, Bubba will be 29 next year - compared to Reed's 25. So, right there, there's an upside for Reed.

Plus, while many think Crosby can be a great defender in CF over a full season, we know that Reed can do it - he was a legit Gold Glove contender last year.

And, in his 2004 Prospect Book, John Sickels rated Reed one of the best hitting prospects in the game. At no time in his career did Bubba ever carry such promise.

At this rate, Pavano better be a 20-game winner for Cashman in 2006. Brian's "attempting to save face" reluctance to deal Carl is going to cost the Yankees - especially if they're passing over a chance to get a player like Reed in exchange for him.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:05 PM | Comments (2)

B.A. Cano?

From the Journal News:

General manager Brian Cashman has since declared Cano to be an all-but-untouchable chip in the trade market.

But is that faith misplaced?

Cano didn't look — or act — much like the fresh-faced rookie who captivated the Bronx during an appearance at the Last Licks sports memorabilia and ice cream shop yesterday.

Sporting a beard and wearing a black knit cap pulled down near his eyes, he rushed through hundreds of autographs that eager fans paid $50 each for. At one point, Cano was on his cell phone, ignoring fans who wanted a handshake or picture taken. But the autographs kept flowing.

Officials from Last Licks promised during the week that Cano would be available for a brief interview. But Cano twice ignored requests to speak to a reporter.

A husky man who identified himself as Antonio Belize sat next to Cano during his appearance, chugging cans of Red Bull while wearing wraparound Armani sunglasses despite being indoors. He told Cano not to grant the interview, then rushed him outside to a waiting SUV with a driver inside. The vehicle then sped off, its tires churning up the snow.

Meanwhile, several youngsters who had just arrived at the store hoping to meet Cano were left with nothing.

Sounds like Ruben Sierra, circa 1996-98. What exactly was discussed in all those mentoring sessions this summer anyway?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:06 AM | Comments (17)

December 11, 2005

Posada Denied WBC Gig

From ESPN.com:

Jorge Posada was ready to play for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately for Posada, the New York Yankees had other ideas.

The Yankees blocked Posada from participating, telling Major League Baseball that Posada was indispensable and was concerned the heavy workload he incurs during the season would be added to and might cause injury, The New York Post reported.

"As a courtesy I called the Yankees to advise them that Jorge wanted to participate in the World Baseball Classic," agent Seth Levinson told the paper. "The Yankees filed an objection that was accepted and Jorge was not eligible despite his desire to play."

Posada felt an urge to represent Puerto Rico in the tournament, wanting to make his family proud.

"I wanted to play since my family is from Puerto Rico, it's where I am from and I was excited," Posada told The Post. "I was the first one to ask for the documents. I can't do anything about it. The Yankees have the last word. I respect that and I will prepare for spring training like I always do."

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano are expected to play in the WBC. Hideki Matsui will likely be added to the Japan roster as well.

Hmmmm. I'm not buying this all the way. It's a three week tournament being played the same time as Spring Training. I don't see how it's OK for Jeter, Cano and A-Rod to take on this work, but, it's an extra hardship for Jorge.

Every once in a while I hear whispers about how some in the Yankees front office do not like Posada. I'm not sure why and/or over what. But, because I have heard this more than once, I have to wonder if this objection is a way to give Jorge some grief. If so, it's a story that I hope gets told someday. It would be interesting to know.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:34 PM | Comments (9)

Welcome To My Nightmare

I was just looking at some recent Yankees strikeout data. It started when I was looking at Tino Martinez' career. Ol' Tino had a few bad years with the bat - sabermetrically speaking - and a lot of years where he was just about league average at best. But, one thing that Tino never did - in his entire career - was strikeout 100+ times in a season.

This made me wonder - during 1996 through 2005 - how many Yankees had seasons where they whiffed 100+ times? Here's the answer: Nine - Derek Jeter, 6 times. Jorge Posada, 4 times. Alfonso Soriano and Jason Giambi, 3 times each. Alex Rodriguez, twice. Robin Ventura, Paul O'Neill, Chili Davis and Hideki Matsui once each.

Next, I wondered about how many times in the last decade did the Yankees have teams with more than one batter having 100+ strikeouts? Here's the answer: Seven - 1998 (Jeter and O'Neill), 1999 (Jeter and Davis), 2001 (Soriano and Posada), 2002 (Soriano, Posada, Jeter, Giambi, Ventura), 2003 (Giambi, Soriano, Posada), 2004 (Rodriguez and Matsui), 2005 (Giambi, Jeter, Rodriguez).

And, for what it's worth, the 1998, 1999 and 2004 teams mentioned above could have easily only had one batter with 100+ whiffs. The numbers were close. So, if you discount them, it leaves 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005. If I recall correctly, those were seasons where the Yankees were over-matched in the post-season by their opponents pitching. Any connection here?

And, this is where my nightmare comes in.

I've always believed that strikeouts were bad for a batter. Why? Because you give yourself almost no chance to reach base. If you make contact, anything can happen.

But, whenever I bring this up to anyone who has a sabermetric background, they start quoting all the various studies that claim that a strikeout is just another form of out. According to the stats, a strikeout is worth just as many runs, within a few hairs, as making out via contact. And, as the party line goes, it's no big deal if a batter has most of his outs via the whiff, as long as he's productive otherwise.

Now, many of those same saber-minds tell us that pitchers have almost no control over what happens after they throw the ball - unless it's a homer, ball four, or a strikeout. And that pitchers who strikeout batters have an edge, of sorts, because they can get outs independent of their defense and safe from potential bad hops, errors, etc.

And, this has always vexed me. If strikeouts are so good for pitchers, then, in return, why are they not bad for hitters? Should not the Yin and Yang of a thing be equal?

Anyway, now it gets even better. I've recently read a study that found that (based on data from 2002 through 2004) roughly 80% of line drives hit allow runner to reach safely, 40% of batted balls that were grounders went for hits, and 22% of batted balls that were fly balls fell for hits.

So, when a batter makes contact, he has anywhere between a 20% chance and a 80% chance to reach base safely (depending on the path of his batted ball.) Yet, we know, when a batter strikes out, he'll be retired just about every time without fail.

Contact vs. No Contact. 22% vs. 0%. 40% vs. 0%. 80% vs. 0%. Maybe I'm confused, but, it looks like contact wins every time.

Anywho, if someone has more on this that will explain it better - or that will prove to me that it's really O.K. for a batter to strikeout than it is to make contact, I'd welcome that in the comments section to this entry.

In the meantime, until I am convinced otherwise, I'm going to put "Less batters with 100+ K's for the Yankees" on my wish list for Santa this year.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:09 PM | Comments (9)

Chances Of Damon Heating Up?

From Newsday:

The Yankees are starting to get serious with Johnny Damon, and according to a person familiar with the Yankees' plans, they'll be "very strong" players if Damon will consider a four-year offer.

The Yankees might try to get creative by offering an "out" clause, extra incentives or a higher annual salary. Discussions are intensifying, but agent Scott Boras has requested seven years, and Yankees people say they don't anticipate going past four.

Boras said yesterday, "The market's very strong for Johnny ... Our position on seven years is serious, and clubs are aware of it."

Putting aside Damon's durability and hitting for a moment, I still find this interest odd, because of Damon's defensive game. We all know that he has a rainbow-maker of an arm. And, his range will be tested in Yankees Stadium like it never was in Fenway Park. Also, listen to what Joe Torre just said the other day:

"It will be Bubba if we don't come up with something through free agency or a trade," he said. "Bubba Crosby is my option in center field. To me, defense is so important if you are trying to limit the opposition to three outs an inning."

Now, of course, one could say "Joe, if defense was that important, what were you doing running Bernie out there these past few years?" Anyway, maybe what the Yankees are thinking is: Suffer with Damon's "D" in CF for 2006, move him to LF in 2007, slide Matsui to RF, and get a real CF from the next free agent class? It's possible.

As far as batting, yes, Damon would help the Yankees out of the lead-off spot. And, I've already said that I could live with a three-year deal for him. So, if the Yankees want to go to four with out-clauses, etc., that's fine.

Lastly, one of the cases that Scott Boras makes, in his pitch for the 7-year deal is Damon's durability. And, yes, Damon is the only active player in baseball to appear in 145+ games a season for the last 10 years in a row. But, he's not the only one with a streak close to this going on now. Andruw Jones has a 9-year streak going. Shawn Green and Bobby Abreu have 8-year streaks going. Miguel Tejada has a 7-year streak. And, Derrek Lee and A-Rod have 5-year runs in progress.

Shawn Green and Bobby Abreu are close to Damon's age. And, Green is "built" like Damon - just 4 inches taller. Would you give a 7-year deal to Shawn Green today? Of course not. So, why should anyone give one to Johnny Damon?

This whole story will be worth watching over the next few weeks until it plays out for good.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:37 AM | Comments (7)

Dreaming A Little Dream

There's an episode of the Little Rascals where the gang trades Pete the Dog for a doll. And, the nasty owner of the store (where the doll was for sale) makes a comment to the gang, along the lines of, "I'll trade you the doll for that there dog. And, remember, you're getting the best of the bargain."

The Houston Astros are in trouble this year - without Roger Clemens. Andy Pettitte is in the last year of his Houston contract - and is getting paid a whopping $17.5 million for that year. Why would Houston want to pay a pitcher that much - especially when your team will stink and he's in his walk year?

Here's the remaining deal with the Carl Pavano's Yankees contract: He gets $8 million in 2006, $10 million in 2007, and $11 million in 2008. And, there's a team option for 2009 (at $15 million) with a $1.95 million buyout.

So, with Pavano, he's owed $31 million over the next three years. Hmmm. If you're Houston, would you want to pay a guy nearly $18 million for just one year or another guy $31 million over three years. And, of course, there's always the chance that you can trade the other guy later and maybe make that $31 million turn into $8 million (for 2006) and then you save ten million dollars.

I think the Yankees should offer to trade Pav the Dog to Houston for their Andy Doll. And, tell them, "Remember, you're getting the best of the bargain.

Heck, you don't get a bloody nose for asking.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:21 AM | Comments (2)

December 10, 2005

The Wandering Joe

These are busy times for Joe Torre.

Thursday, he was in Bayonne talking to school kids.

Later that day, Joe was at the annual Somerset Patriots Holiday Cocktail Reception at The Palace at Somerset Park hotel.

And, on the same day, Torre was in Newark when the NJIT's Highlanders announced a collaborative partnership with the Newark Bears.

On Friday, he was on Fox News Channel's "The O'Reilly Factor."

And, next Wednesday, Joe will be carrying the Olympic Torch in Florence, Italy.

Also, Torre will soon tape an appearance on the Style Network show "Isaac" with Isaac Mizrahi, to be broadcast Dec. 23.

And, recently, Torre's been on The Tony Danza Show.

Joe's face is on T.V. and in print these days more often than Jessica Simpson.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:57 PM | Comments (0)

The Baseball Same Game

One of the interesting things that I experienced, in doing my book, The Baseball Same Game, is the number of people (who read the book and) who have complimented me on the Prologue. Really, how many times have you heard someone say about a book "Great Prologue. I really enjoyed it!" - - I would bet not many times. Yet, I have heard that from readers. Basically, the Prologue is "my story" and how I got to the point where I was ready to do the book. From what I've been told, folks seemed to enjoy reading about my passion for the game. So, I thought I would share the Prologue here, today, at WasWatching.com. And, if you read it, and like it, hopefully you'll consider picking up a copy of the book yourself - to read more. Here's how the Prologue appears in The Baseball Same Game:

I have been a baseball fan for over thirty years. I am not absolutely certain as to the exact point in time when this passion began. But, I do have a particular memory of a moment in my life where I like to believe it all started.

My mother once shared with me years ago that my father tried to introduce the game to me at an early age. However, I was not very interested. Watching cartoons such as Speed Racer or Gigantor were more important to me at that specific time. Dad, being a smart man, probably figured that you can lead a horse to water, etc., and decided to allow nature to take its course, in due time – rather than force baseball upon me.

And, during grammar school, it happened. They (as in the famous “they” that people refer to when not exactly sure who to credit) say that when you pick up a baseball for the first time and hold it, in reality, it is the baseball that establishes a hold on you.

It was something like that for me. Honestly, my earliest “baseball memory” is of a game (where I was a player) in the playground of my grammar school (P.S. 21) during lunchtime recess. If I had to guess, since I am not certain of the precise time, I would say it was the spring of 1972. Exactly why I was in the game is not clear. I can only assume that I was “playing” because all the other kids were as well; or, perhaps they were short a player and they twisted my arm to participate and fill out the team.

“Mrs. Davis” (a mature woman who lived across the street from the school) was the attendant for all of us youngsters in the yard. She also served as the “official pitcher” in this contest that I recall. (Since tots around the age of nine have problems throwing strikes on a consistent basis, you need an “official pitcher” dealing hittable servings to both sides in a game like this one.)

Now, here is the hazy part. I want to say that “Mrs. Davis” was the aunt of Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan. Now, whether this is fact, some form of public fiction mistaken as truth, or just a flat out figment of my personal imagination, I am not sure. But, at this junction of my life, I have decided to run with it as fact. The more I think of it, someone must have told me this information. As a young kid in grammar school, I did not know enough about baseball to even know that “Nolan Ryan” was a baseball player. Therefore, it is doubtful that I, over thirty years ago, made this up myself back at that time. This leaves only “fact” and “public fiction mistaken as truth.” With two options, there is a 50-50 chance that fact may be the case. With odds like these, it seems silly not to run with it being a fact. Besides, it makes for a better story.

Specifically, from this game mention shared here, I only have one clear memory. In one At Bat, I lined one of Mrs. Davis’ offerings into right-center field for a stand up double. As I slowed to touch up at second base, Mrs. Davis shouted out an encouraging cry, along the lines of “Nice hitting!” to me. I was sky high at that moment. It was my first great feeling associated to baseball - again, as far as I can recall.

This is where I like to believe it started. Hey, if Cooperstown can have their “Doubleday Myth,” why can’t I have this? The day I lined a double off of Nolan Ryan’s aunt, I became hooked on baseball as a child - and never looked back. How many others can make that claim?

My fervor for baseball from there gained momentum every step of the way. My father took me to my first professional game on August 8, 1973 at the “old” Yankee Stadium. It was such an indelible experience that I can still recall images from that game today, as if it just happened yesterday.

In our home, my mother once offered the observation that “Before you kids were born” - as in my older sister and I – “your Dad used to watch baseball games on TV. Then, he never got to watch the games because you two wanted to watch cartoons. Now, your father can’t watch anything on TV because all you want to do is watch baseball.”

When VCRs first became household items, I took it to another extreme. I would tape games (as I watched them) and then watch them over and over again. Mom would walk into a room, at any given point in the day, see a game on the TV and would ask “Is this a new game or an old game?” That question became an entering the living room staple query for my mother over the years when I lived at home.

I would also read anything “baseball” that I could get into my hands. While I have never kept count, in my lifetime, to date, I must have read nearly 150 books on baseball. To this date, my wife will rib me with the question of “What was the last book that you read that was not about baseball?” Candidly, it was probably something that I read about 18 years ago. The desire or occasion for me to read an “other than baseball” book has always been remote.

Playing “ball” was an important part of my life too. I played Little League during grammar and middle school – although my “game” then left a lot to be desired. Then, I was a much better “fan” of the game than a “player.”

After Little League, there were summers full of pick-up games with friends. This lasted all through high school. After graduation from the 12th grade, during college and past graduation there, softball replaced baseball on my playing resume. In fact, at age 17, I founded and managed a team in a men’s medium pitch league. It was around this time that I became a better player. It is true that repetition is the mother of skill. For some of us, like me, it just takes a lot of repetition. I lived in the local indoor batting cages. A trip to “the cage” was almost an automatic after-dinner event, all year round. I played a lot of softball – some seasons, I played on as many as three teams during a summer – up until I was about age 27.

I hung up my spikes at that age to have more time to do the silly things that most 27-year-old single men do with their time. But, despite my “playing days” being over, I continued to follow baseball in every way possible (as time allowed). I sporadically dabbled in baseball research for slightly more than a decade. It was strictly on a pleasure basis. I also ran a fantasy baseball league, the Bogus American Baseball Association, during this time and that task satisfied the majority of my baseball fixation.

Around the year 2000, the fantasy baseball game had become somewhat of a bore for me. I closed up shop on that front and used the free time to become more resolute in my quest to learn as much about baseball’s past as possible. I started a baseball history website, NetShrine.com, which provided a point of focus for me in this ever continuing search for baseball knowledge. And, while working on that website, a baseball related epiphany occurred for me. The more I studied baseball history, the more I began to yield to the unequivocal conclusion that there is infinitely more still unknown that can yet be learned. Even what I thought I knew was either incomplete or not entirely correct. I began to sense that everything there is to the history of baseball, and I use “everything” in the purest definition of the word, had a quicksand nature to it. Just when you believed that you had made some progress digging into it, along came the realization that there is just as much still out there as when you first started.

Arriving at a premise such as this, I determined there were two options available for me: One, run like heck from the potential of being submerged beyond hope in this knowledge quagmire; or, two, take a deep breath and jump in cannonball style and start to have fun. I chose the latter. In doing this, I began to learn more about individual baseball player’s careers than I knew before – correcting erroneous preconceived notions on players and also discovering players from the past for the first time. As I learned more, I began to notice batting and pitching careers that resembled each other closely.

Sharing some of these “matching player” discoveries with old friend baseball fans and other fellow baseball enthusiasts (who I had met through my baseball website) would often yield an implied approving response of “Where did you come up with these?” After repeated feedback that these match-ups were enjoyable, the light bulb went on over my head. The notion that perhaps these findings, en masse, were a good idea for a baseball book began to glow. And, The Baseball Same Game was born.

Who should read The Baseball Same Game? If you are a fan of baseball, albeit novice or erudite, the hope is that this book has something inside for you. The goal here is to make this the type of read that you can pick up at anytime and begin reading at any page – and there will be no understanding penalty if you allow for extended gaps between readings. However, it is also anticipated that this book will hold your attention, provide some enlightenment, and provoke some thought and/or emotion within you.

In summary, this is how I got here and why I wrote The Baseball Same Game. Maybe things would have been different if Mrs. Davis had not “cookied” (as the players say today) a nice fat “BP” pitch right into the “inside-out” wheelhouse of a small boy back in the early ‘70s? But, she did. It’s “in the books” – at least it is in this one – and “you can look it up.” That’s part of the beauty of baseball. There are many things to “look up.” You can start now for yourself by turning to the next printed page in this book. Enjoy.

- Steve Lombardi
April 2005

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:27 PM | Comments (2)

December 09, 2005

Filling Out The Yankees Roster

The following is an attempt to guess at the Yankees 25-man roster for 2006 (based on what we know so far). Here goes:

Catchers (2): Posada and Stinnett
Infielders (6): Giambi, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez, Phillips, and Escalona
Outfielders (5): Matsui, Crosby, Sheffield, Williams and Thompson
Starting Picthers (5): Johnson, Wang, Mussina, Pavano, and Chacón
Bullpen (6): Rivera, Farnsworth, Myers, Sturtze, Small, and Wright

Yes, that's only 24. The last spot is tricky. It could be another utility player or another man for the pen.

Who's available? Well, there's Proctor, DePaula, Veras, Anderson and Smith for the pen. And, maybe even Leiter is in the mix? For position players it could come from Reese, Prieto, Howard or Thurston.

That's an ugly bunch. And, when you add Escalona and Thompson to the gang, it tells you that the Yankees still need to plug three holes on their bench:

*Back-up Middle Infielder
*Back-up Outfielder
*25th Man (abelit a utility player or 12th pitcher)

I hope there are some people on Cashman's radar to fill these spots.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:46 PM | Comments (7)

Bernie In The Post-Season

I just saw this quote today from Joe Torre on the value of adding Bernie Williams to the Yankees in 2006:

"The most important thing is (Williams) wants to be here, and we want him here," Torre said. "It makes sense that they'll be able to make a deal. I'm sure he could probably go somewhere else and demand more things. But he seems comfortable here. I treasure our relationship."

Torre said the switch-hitter will likely fill the role Ruben Sierra handled last season.

"The one thing about Bernie is that ... he may not be blessed with the instincts that other players have. But when the postseason comes around, he doesn't scare. That's an area where you really trust him."

It appears that Joe is looking to get Bernie 200-300 ABs this year - as Sierra has done the past few seasons. That could be a problem. Nonetheless, I wanted to look now at what Bernie has done in the post-season - because of Torre's remark - and this is what I saw:

It's interesting when you stack out the numbers like this. In summary, Bernie's had 11 post-season series where he stunk, 3 where he was average, and 10 post-season series where he excelled with the bat.

The Yankees won all three series where Bernie was average with the bat. And, when Williams excelled at the plate, the team went 6-4. But, in the 11 post-season series where Bernie was just horrendous with the stick, the Yankees went 8-3.

I have to wonder if New York went 3-8 in those series if Bernie would have gotten some of the treatment that A-Rod has seen the last two years?

If you break it down for Bernie by series, this is what you get:

In summary, Williams has been both hot and cold in the ALDS and ALCS over the years - and has been brutal offensively in 5 of the 6 World Series in which he played.

Maybe Bernie's not scared in the post-season, but, it's not like he's consistently been Lou Gehrig-ish when the calendar turns to October either.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:12 PM | Comments (3)

Missing The Jason Pridie Boat

I see that the Twins grabbed Jason Pridie in the recent Rule 5 Draft.

Reportedly, he's fast and a very good defensive outfielder. Basically, it's been his strike zone judgement that has held him back - but, he's only 22-years-old. In his 2005 Prospect Book, John Sickels said he had the potential to be a Johnny Damon-type player.

Right now, with his glove and his feet, he has more to offer the Yankees than some of the present possible solutions in terms of back-up outfielders. And, he's cheap.

It would have been nice to carry him as a 25th man in 2006 and then let him go to Columbus in 2007. And, maybe then you have sleeper come 2008. He has a lot more upside than Chris Prieto or Bernie Williams - that's for sure.

I would guess that New York could have traded up to get him in the draft. There were a lot of teams who passed in the draft who had selections prior to the Twins.

Oh, well, it's just crying over spilt milk now.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:34 AM | Comments (0)

Chris Prieto

From the Star Ledger the other day:

So far the only competition for Crosby is Chris Prieto, a 33-year-old minor-league free agent who will come to spring training. Prieto, whom the Yankees like defensively, hit .317 with a .418 on-base percentage last year for the Angels' Triple-A affiliate.

Who?

OK, he's reached base well in Triple-A the last three years - but you have to remember that it's in the PCL. And, he was in his 30's while doing it.

So, folks, if something happens to Bubba Crosby, you just might be seeing Chris Prieto playing in CF for the Yankees some time in 2006. Wow.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:20 AM | Comments (0)

Cano To CF?

From the Post:

Yesterday afternoon, Cano offered to move to the outfield if it will aid the Yankees' quest for a world championship. And although he knew of no master plan to shift him, the 23-year-old second baseman sounded genuine — and almost enthusiastic.

"I just want to play everyday," Cano said after announcing an endorsement partnership with Spalding in a Manhattan restaurant. "If I have to play center field, I don't care . . .

"If they ask me, I'll do it."

I think this is just a case of a rookie having a loose/stupid tongue when left alone with too many members of the media. But, just for the heck of it, can a 2B move to CF?

Well, we know that Craig Biggio did it in 2003 - and it's still questionable as to how much range he had in CF. But, he was 37-years-old when he did it - so, maybe he gets a buddy pass here.

Tim Raines and Roy White, if I recall correctly, were moved from being minor league 2Bs to the OF at the big league level. Yes, they became left fielders - but that was because of their lack of arms and not their foot speed.

Hank Aaron was sorta a 2B/OF before he became a full-time OF. But, he was not a CF. Speaking of Braves, I know that Ron Gant made the switch from 2B to the OF - and I think he was a CF at the time of the switch (and then later became a corner OF).

Now, a couple of 3Bs (at first) became pretty good fielding CF in their time: Chet Lemon and Amos Otis.

So, what about Cano? Well, it's not like he's Orlando Hudson with the glove at 2B. Yes, he's not Soriano-bad. But, he's not so golden there that a move would be a waste.

However, it's Cano's "Manny Trillo" throwing style that tells me such a switch could be a problem. Guys who were a 3B, like Lemon and Otis, were used to throwing over the top. Cano's natural tendency to flip the ball might mean that he would have to reset his primary thoughts on throwing. And, would he be able to make that translation and then have the arm that's needed for CF?

There just seems to be too many loose and moving parts to the equation of Cano playing CF. If we were talking about LF, like White and Raines, I would say that it's possible for him to switch. Player center, and playing it well, is a whole other story.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:41 AM | Comments (6)

Roberto Hernandez

From the Post:

With Myers signed to get David Ortiz and other left-handed hitters out, the Yankees made a proposal to the 41-year-old [Roberto] Hernandez.

According to agent Alan Hendricks, the Yankees are one of four teams interested in his client who went 8-6 with a 2.58 ERA in 67 games last season for the Mets.

Yes, Hernandez will be 41-years-old next year. But, other than having a history of being a potential menace to baseball history on team photo day, he's an interesting pitcher.

In fact, I've always felt that, if he had pitched his whole career for basically one team, and in a major market, we might be looking differently (big-picture-wise) at him. See the following lists via the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia:

And, here's the pitchers with the most seasons with.....

In terms of being durable, and productive, Roberto Hernandez is just knocking on the door of the "greatest RP of all-time club." And, he was a good performer last year (85 base runners in almost 70 IP) at age forty.

I would have no problem with the Yankees adding him to their bullpen for 2006.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:19 AM | Comments (3)

December 08, 2005

Bernie's Role In 2006

This evening I found myself thinking about the prospects of Andy Phillips being the Yankees D.H. in 2006 now that there's an excellent chance that Bernie Williams will return to the team.

Would Torre use Bernie at D.H. full-time in 2006 instead of Phillips? Well, considering that Williams's game has slipped, would a platoon with Phillips make more sense - even though Bernie is a switch-hitter? To answer that, I decided to look at Bernie Williams' Average/On Base/Slugging splits over the last three years. This is what I found:

2003:
vs. LHP .280/.414/.424 in 132 AB
vs. RHP .256/.345/.406 in 313 AB

2004:
vs. LHP .265/.384/.464 in 166 AB
vs. RHP .261/.350/.423 in 313 AB

2005:
vs. LHP .231/.305/.286 in 182 AB
vs. RHP .261/.330/.416 in 303 AB

Yes, that's no typo. Last season, in 182 AB, Bernie Williams "slugged" two-eighty-six against LHP.

Also, notice the On Base Average trend for Williams against lefties the last three years: .414 to .384 to .305. That's like going from Giambi to Womack skills in the span of three years. Clearly, if Andy Phillips has any kind of game versus LHP, then he should D.H. over Bernie against southpaws.

Against righties, Bernie's been consistent the last three years around .260/.340/.410. Now, those are numbers that you can live with from a batter if he proves some stellar defense at a key position (like at catcher or center field) to offset the below-average-ness of that rate of production. But, from your D.H.? It's not really much of a help there. To be kind, it's just a warm body filling out a spot in the line-up card.

So, if Bernie is not going to be able to make a positive contribution to the team with his bat, how will he help the Yankees in 2006? As a pinch-runner or defensive replacement? I think we all know the answer there.

Basically, if used correctly in 2006, Williams should be the 5th outfielder on the roster depth chart - and maybe the 2nd or 3rd pinch-hitting option for Torre (when he wants to bat for Bubba or Stinnett). If Joe Torre allows him to bat more than 5 times a week, it's going to hurt the team.

It just seems, to me, that a player on the roster who hardly bats should be able to provide some other skill to the team (say, with his feet or glove) to warrant his place on the roster. And, to keep him on the roster as a reward (or something) for past service or to allow one more summer vacation in the Bronx for old time's sake is letting your heart overrule your eyes and brain. In some ways, it's a disservice to the player - letting his last run be made when his legs are shot - like Willie Mays with the Mets in 1973.

As Yankees fans, do you want your last memory of Bernie to be that of him falling on his face and costing the Yankees games? If given the choice, this Yankees fan would prefer not to see that this season.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:30 PM | Comments (12)

New Member of Yanks' Pen Scrapes Bottom

Ortiz ammo!

Thanks to WasWatching reader "hopbitters" for the heads-up on this news:

The Yankees bolstered their bullpen before leaving the Winter Meetings, agreeing to a two-year deal with left-hander Mike Myers.

Myers told MLB.com in a phone interview that he had agreed to terms on a two-year contract with New York, filling the much-needed role of left-handed specialist.

"I'm jacked up for it," Myers said of pitching in the Bronx. "It's going to be a lot of fun. The Yankees are a team I have wanted to play with for quite a while. I'm glad the deal was able to come to fruition."

"Mike Stanton did a phenomenal job for them during the run of World Series championships," Myers said. "I know they have gone through about 15 different left-handers in the past few years, so I'm looking forward to filling that role and helping bring a World Series title back to New York."

Check that out. Mike Myers feeling randy baby. Good.

Memo to Torre: Do not let him face any right-handed batters! Check the stats Joe!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:36 PM | Comments (6)

Womack For Kevin Howard and Ben Himes

Today's good news:

The Reds obtained second baseman Tony Womack from the New York Yankees today for minor leaguers Kevin Howard and Ben Himes.

The Reds are getting cash in the deal. The trade is expected to be announced this afternoon.

More on Kevin Howard from BBA:

Howard has the biggest buzz coming into this year's draft after having a brilliant season in the Arizona Fall League. A fifth-round pick in 2002 out of Miami, Howard won the AFL batting title, hitting .409-3-16 in 88 at-bats. But perhaps his strongest asset was proving himself to be an adequate defender at third base. Howard played third in college, but played primarily second base since turning pro. He's a patient lefthanded hitter with a line-drive stroke, and has shown improved power. Some scouts in the AFL liked him better at third, and Howard could be solid at either spot making him the best overall position player available in the draft.

Ben Himes is a million miles away from being any help to a big league team.

I love this trade. Anything for Womack and I would have loved this trade. Getting Howard is just icing on the cake.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:43 PM | Comments (7)

Meanwhile, Across Town....

From Yankees.com -

Bernie Williams' future with the Yankees is still an uncertainty, but the Bombers aren't the only New York team with an interest in the five-time All-Star.

The Mets are interested in signing Williams as a backup outfielder, the same role that the Yankees are looking to fill with the 37-year-old.

One high-ranking Mets official said that if Williams is willing to accept a contract significantly lower than the $12.3 million he earned in 2005, the club would be interested in bringing him across town from the Bronx to Queens. The Mets would probably offer Williams a one-year deal not worth more than $2 million.

"Depending on the type of role Bernie would be willing to take on, I think he'd be a good fit for us," the Mets official said. "His leadership, his experience in New York, those are qualities that aren't easy to find."

Leadership? Bernie is famous for ducking out of the clubhouse ASAP to avoid having to deal with the media. On the field, he never worked at all to address the shortcomings in his game. How is he leading? By words? By example? How? Was he leading when he showed up extremely late to Game 6 of the 2001 World Series?

Bernie is a sweetheart of a man. And, he does not make waves. But, a leader? Never. That's laughable.

Anyway, this explains the arbitration offer to me. Once the Yankees heard that the Mets were interested, they could not let that happen. It's stupid PR-stuff, but, that's the way it works on things like this.

Personally, I would have let him go. Yogi Berra played his last games as a New York Met in 1965 and he's still a Yankees legend. So, what if Bernie did the same thing?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:33 AM | Comments (9)

December 07, 2005

Arbitration Offer For Bernie

From Newsday:

Bernie Williams was offered arbitration, giving the Yankees until Jan. 8 to re-sign their longtime centerfielder, who is wanted back in a reserve role.

"We're going to try to exhaust the situation with the Yankees before we move forward," agent Scott Boras said.

What if he accepts the offer to go to arbitration? The Yankees could end up paying a lot of money for a guy who can't play CF or RF and who wasn't too keen on playing LF last year. He's a D.H. these days - and there's evidence out there to suggest that his best days with the bat were three years ago.

The Gump Off-Season of '05-'06 continues...........

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:50 PM | Comments (16)

Bengie Molina

From the AP:

The Los Angeles Angels are parting ways with two players who made key contributions to the team's success over the past few years, declining salary arbitration to catcher Bengie Molina and starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn.

From the Yuma Sun:

Molina, 31, said he is realistically looking for a deal in the two- to four-year range.

Basically, the teams out there in need of a starting catcher are the Astros, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Rockies. OK, we know that the Yankees would love to see Jorge Posada not catch more than 62 games this season.

Hmmm. I smell the Yankees offering Molina a two-year deal for decent money - and then using Posada at D.H. (for the most part) this season.

In reality, despite what many think, Molina is a really bad batter. As a hitting catcher, he's almost Joel Skinner-ish. Bengie had a career year - for him - with the stick last year and was just league average in the process. And, he's the slowest man in baseball.

Didn't Brian Cashman say, just the other day, that "We don't need another station-to-station guy"?

This is why I hope my nose is wrong on this one.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:13 PM | Comments (4)

Who Is Chien-Ming Wang?

I was just playing with the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia - trying to find a RH pitcher in the last quarter-century whose season was the closest to Wang's season in 2005. This is what I found:

Boy, I sure hope that Chien-Ming Wang's 2006 is better than Zach Day's 2005 or Amaury Telemaco's 1999.

Personally, having watched Wang last year, I think he's going to be fine. He's a special case - having faced the pressure of pitching for Taiwan in the 2003 and 2004 Olympics, and for the Yankees last year, shows that he's not going to melt. At least that's what I think/hope.

He'll probably never win a Cy Young Award. But, if he improves his control, he can be a Bob Tewksbury-type pitcher (winning in double digits most years).

That said, if the Yankees had more options and less question marks in the rotation for next year, maybe it would make more sense to see what Wang could get you in a trade? But, since the Yankees rotation does carry concerns - all the members, in fact - New York cannot afford to trade Wang now (unless they get another dependable SP in return).

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:44 PM | Comments (6)

Nigel Tufnel Would Be Proud

OK, I'm not even going to look at this for a while now - since the numbers just keep going up!

WasWatching.com had 11,037 hits yesterday - which is now the "new" all-time record for this site in terms of most hits in one day.

Thanks again to everyone for this incredible interest and support!

Now, if just a small fraction of those hitting would buy my book..........hey, you can't blame a guy for wishful thinking!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:54 PM | Comments (1)

Sticking It To Bayonne

Thanks to Repoz for the heads-up on this story:

New York Yankees manager Joe Torre will be in Bayonne tomorrow - but apparently not to recruit a new centerfielder.

The Yankees skipper - who has piloted the Bronx Bombers to four World Series titles - is coming to Midtown Community School, Avenue A and 24th Street, to give a lesson on how "Teamwork Works," City Schools Superintendent Patricia McGeehan said.

Torre - who will be accompanied by former Yankee infielder and current vice president Gene Michael, and broadcasters John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman - will pass on his team strategy to a student audience of about 600, including Midtown sixth-to eighth-graders and seventh-and eighth-graders from the neighboring Vroom School and School 14, McGeehan said.

Considering everything going down in Dallas this week, is this the best use of Gene Michael's time?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:32 AM | Comments (4)

Age & Ancestry Working Against Bernie?

So, today appears to be Bernie Williams Decision Day. Now, I've always liked Bernie. But, I do think it's time for him to retire.

Regardless of what I think, what should the Yankees do with Bernie - since Williams still wants to play?

Well, Bernie's coming off a terrible year with the bat. And, in the two seasons prior to that, he was just league average offensively. But, the important thing here to keep an eye on is Bernie's age next year and perhaps - and I cringe as I type this because people are going to flame me for it - to consider that he's a native of Puerto Rico.

I don't know why, but, baseball stars from Puerto Rico seem to get old, in a hurry, once they pass age 36. Roberto Alomar is the most recent case of this. But, if you want numbers, see these sorts via the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia:

First, "best" seasons from a Puerto Rico native ages 37 or older:

Next, "best" career totals for Puerto Rico natives from age 37 on:

Jose Cruz and Roberto Clemente are the only two Puerto Rico natives to do anything positive with the bat at age 37 or older.

I know, I know, saying that baseball players from Puerto Rico, after age 36, are done in terms of offensive effectiveness is flat out stereotyping in the eyes of many. But, the numbers are the numbers, no?

Sometimes, stereotypes start because there's a lot of evidence to support them. I remember, years and years ago, reading Kevin Kerrane's excellent book, Dollar Sign on the Muscle, and there was a line in there about scouts being wary of High School prospects who came from Italian families - because those kids had the tendency to gain a lot of weight later in life. As someone from an Italian background, I was upset about that thought process - until I thought about it some more, looked around, and realized that it was not an outrageous claim.

Somewhat related, twenty-something years ago, I went to a psychic with a girl that I was dating - who came from an Italian family. He asked her if she had an Aunt Rose. She said yes. He asked if this aunt had a weight problem. She said yes again.

When we got back to her house that night, she told her father (about the psychic) "He was great. He knew that I had an aunt named Rose and that she had a weight problem." Her father looked back at her and said "Come on, name one Italian family that doesn't have an Aunt Rose in it with a weight problem."

And, to borrow from him, I'll say "Name three baseball players from Puerto Rico who were effective batters at age 37 or older." Maybe Bernie can be the next one after Cruz and Clemente? But, the odds are that he will not be - and the Yankees should pass on him now.

Maybe the facts here are not very "PC" to point out - but, since they exist they seem to warrant some analysis here. Note I am not saying "why" the case is that the numbers shake out this way - because I have no idea why and I would never attempt to guess. It just seems wrong to say that the theory has no teeth when the numbers seem to back it up.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:23 AM | Comments (4)

December 06, 2005

Marlins To Help Yankees, Sorta?

From Newsday -

While the cost-cutting Marlins still are refusing to lower their asking price of Robinson Cano for Juan Pierre, they have begun to tell teams that every player on their roster - including Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera - is available for the right price.

The Yankees threw out the names of Cano and Chien-Ming Wang in passing as possibilities for Willis, the Marlins' dynamic lefthander, but the Marlins told them it would take a lot more than that, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

The Rangers are one of several teams talking to the Marlins about Pierre, which could benefit the Yankees. If the Rangers acquire Pierre, the Yankees would have interest in Gary Matthews Jr., whom they scouted extensively last July.

A month ago, I said that I would be happy with Gary Matthews Jr. playing CF in the Bronx next year and batting 9th for the team.

If this can happen because the Marlins would send Pierre to Texas, then thank you Jeffrey Loria.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:55 PM | Comments (4)

Cash Is No Youngman

From Yankees.com -

Several teams have called the Yankees about Tony Womack, who doesn't appear to have a true role with New York in 2006.

Womack, who signed a two-year, $4 million deal last winter to be the Yankees' second baseman, was replaced by Robinson Cano in early May and limited to a backup outfielder's role for most of the season.

"I've had some teams express an interest in Tony," Cashman said. "We're in a situation where we'll listen to any concept that might make sense for us with any of our players who don't have full no-trades."

Several teams are looking for a second baseman, including the Royals and Cardinals. The Yankees don't have to move Womack before the season, though they certainly wouldn't be opposed to doing so.

"There's a role that Tony can fill here, without a doubt -- if he's here," Cashman said. "If he's not, maybe we can put him in a different situation which is closer to what he signed here for. Time will tell."

As I read that this evening, my jaw dropped. Cashman should be running around in Dallas, asking everyone he sees, "Take my Womack.....please."

If the Royals want him, strike a deal. Take Emil Brown or Chip Ambres. I've heard that LaRussa loves Womack. Let St. Louis have him for John Gall.

Just don't listen. Take action. Get rid of the stiff as quickly as possible. Consider the fact that someone actually wants him to be a blessing.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:28 PM | Comments (5)

Yankees Trade Bait

In reality, what do the Yankees have to offer anyone this week in a trade?

In terms of prospects, there's Eric Duncan, Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Sean Henn, Matt DeSalvo, Marcos Vechionacci, Christian Garcia, Tyler Clippard, Steven White, Jose Tabata, Jeff Marquez, C.J. Henry, J. Brent Cox, Matt Smith, Jeff Karstens, Zach Kroenke, David Seccombe, Mike Martinez, Brett Gardner, Lance Pendleton, Kevin Thompson, Jonathan Poterson, T.J. Beam and Austin Jackson.

The problem with this group is that the "keepers" are too good to let go and the "suspects" are not anyone who is going to make a rival G.M. say "Yes!" to a deal.

In terms of "more major league ready," the Yankees have the following who could be traded: Jorge Posada, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Scott Proctor, Jaret Wright, Andy Phillips, Jorge De Paula, Bubba Crosby and Tony Womack.

Pavano is the only one in that group that anyone would want - but, Brian Cashman says he's not looking to trade him.

Lastly, there are the "who would want them" guys like Felix Escalona, Kevin Reese, Jason Anderson, Wil Nieves, Colter Bean and Wayne Franklin.

So, basically, if the Yankees are able to make a major deal to, say, help themselves in CF (or somewhere else), they're going to have to deal Pavano - or someone else who they don't want to deal like Shawn Chacon, Robinson Cano, or Chien-Ming Wang. Or, they're going to have to part with one of the few true jewels in the farm system.

This tells me to be prepared for one of two things. Either the Yankees will not be making any stunning trades this winter or someone will be traded who was a player that they would have kept under normal circumstances.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:48 PM | Comments (7)

Can You Say Nine?

Just some WasWatching.com news to share.

The "old" record lasted three days.

WasWatching.com had 9,635 hits yesterday - which is now the "new" all-time record for this site in terms of most hits in one day.

Thanks again to everyone for this incredible interest and support!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:26 PM | Comments (2)

Gregor Blanco

It would not kill me if the Yankees selected 22-year-old Gregor Blanco in the upcoming Rule V Draft. He was a prospect coming into the 2003 season. (John Sickels gave him a B- grade.) He can fly in CF and has always shown the ability to take pitches and work for a walk.

No, he's not the Yankees answer to CF on a full-time basis. But, if New York is looking for a cheap pinch-runner/defensive OF replacement/25th man type, Blanco is that type of a player.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:49 PM | Comments (5)

Cashman: No Need For Another Bat

From the Journal News:

Cashman also reiterated his utter lack of interest in obtaining another first baseman or DH, saying he is prepared to start the season with Andy Phillips and Jason Giambi in those spots.

"That's the last thing I want to get," he said. "What we need for this team is to be more flexible. We don't need another station-to-station guy that's power only (and) can't run."

Too bad Herb Washington isn't available.

This is a mistake by Cashman in my opinion. Two weeks ago, I made the case for the need of another bat. Does Cashman realize that Posada in 2006 will be inferior with the bat?

Let us assume that Robinson Cano bats 6th in 2006 - behind Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheff and Matsui. And, let's hope that Cano can be productive next year as well.

This makes the bottom of the Yankees order: Posada, Phillips, and Crosby. Folks, that's a free inning for the opposing pitcher. And, that's a free three innings per game for the opposing team. Not good.

OK, put that aside for the moment. Here's another problem with banking on the bats that you have - Jason Giambi.

Back in September 2004 I did some research on Giambi which suggested that he's the type of player who could get old in a hurry. Plus, remember all the "back" issues that Giambi had at the end of last season? Yes, the story then was that they should not be a long term concern. But, as someone with a back that goes out at times, I can tell you that once your back is an issue - it's always an issue.

Another problem that I have here is the assumption where many believe that Andy Phillips can hit. But, can he? Well, the experts at Baseball Info Solutions think that he can - they project him to bat .269 with a slugging percentage of .517. But, that's based on what he's done in Triple-A, at Columbus, over the last two seasons. And, I'm not buying the house based on what someone did in AAA at ages 27 and 28.

Fernando Seguignol, Orestes Destrade and Steve Balboni come to mind in terms of Triple-A sluggers who had their weaknesses exposed at the big league level. And, I believe that Phillips' 13 whiffs in 40 ABs last year tell us that he has some holes in his swing.

This is no knock on the Phillips story. He's a great kid. I have no problem with him being a defensive caddy at 1B in 2006. But, if you're going to rely on him for 500 (or so) PA next season - you cannot do that without assuming great risk.

Now, what if it all comes down at once: Posada's decline, Giambi's aging, Phillips' bust - and throw in Bubba Crosby's lack of bat. Then the Yankees are going with Jeter, A-Rod, Sheff, Matsui and Cano to generate their offense.

And, what if it's worse - meaning that Cano slumps in his second season? It happens to rookies all the time. If this happens, with the above, that leaves the Yankees with just four sticks and no protection for their clean-up batter.

Apply the shaky nature of the Yankees 2006 starting rotation to this equation and, all of a sudden, they could find themselves fighting for 3rd place next year.

Why not just get another bat and try and offset the risk somewhat? Is the money stituation that bad? Is it the 1980's all over again? Will the Yankees be good and interesting but not good enough to win it all?

Based on what we're seeing and hearing from the Yankees these past two months, I'm starting not to feel so great about this up-coming season.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:25 AM | Comments (7)

December 05, 2005

Rick White

From the Boston Globe:

Rick White: The former Pittsburgh reliever tells the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he'll sign with either the Yankees or Red Sox this week. White had a very good season in 2005, posting a 3.72 ERA in 71 games and made just $475,000. The journeyman has pitched with Tampa, New York Mets, White Sox, Cardinals, and Astros.

Please let it be Boston. He'll be 37-years-old next year. Plus, in his "very good season in 2005" he allowed 119 base runners in 75 innings pitched. His strikeout rates have gone down for the last three years in a row.

I would not sign him even if it was for the league minimum. Pass.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:33 PM | Comments (2)

'06 World Baseball Classic

I see that, so far, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez have agreed to play in the WBC next March.

Great, leave camp in Tampa and hit the west coast for three weeks, right in the middle of Spring Training. And, then you get back just about two weeks before Opening Day.

I feel bad for those who bought Spring Training game tickets. That's going to be some Yankees infield that they'll be running out there for three weeks (during the WBC). But, I can see where some would say that's minor - they're only Spring Training games.

However, should Jeter, A-Rod, or Cano (or any other Yankees who signs on for this duty) get hurt doing these games, then that's not minor.

Cross your fingers and your toes. And, keep them that way through the whole WBC-thing.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:05 PM | Comments (8)

Three Lap Horses

Continuing on my thoughts of 200+ IP seasons for Yankees pitchers, I wondered "Since the use of the DH, how many Yankees pitchers have had back-to-back-to-back seasons of 200+ IP?" The answer is not many:

Ron Guidry 1977-80
Doc Medich 1973-75
Ed Figueroa 1976-78
Andy Pettitte 1996-98
Mike Mussina 2001-03

That's it - just five. And, just two in the last quarter-century.

When you look at some of the pitchers in baseball who have done the back-to-back-to-back thing during 1973 through 2005 (like Kevin Gross, Steve Trachsel, Jeff Suppan, Luis Leal, Jose DeLeon, Mark Clark, etc.) you have to wonder why the Yankees have so few consisent horses in their rotation.

But, then, when you look at some other teams, and see they basically had the same number as the Yankees did in that time, then you realize just how scarce those year-after-year-after-year innings-eaters are these days.

It does say something about the value of Mussina to the Yankees in the first part of his contract. It's too bad that his last two years were not on pace with the first three.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:19 PM | Comments (2)

Idle Hands Are Dangerous

Continuing with my "Who were the most effective Yankees [blank] during their present no-rings streak?" curiosity today, I decided to look at "How many Yankees pitchers threw at least 200 innings for the team during their present no-rings streak?" This is what I found:

Stats via the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia.

This was amazing to me. Over the course of the last five seasons, only 9 pitchers have logged 200+ innings (in total) for the pinstripes. And, of those nine, two of these hurlers (Brown and Weaver) stunk.

But, then I started to look at the "Total with 200+ IP and how many stunk" ratios for some other A.L. teams for 2001-2005. And, I found the following ratios:

Angels: 14-3
Orioles: 12-5
A's: 10-1
Blue Jays: 10-1
Twins: 10-2
White Sox 10-3
Red Sox: 9-1
Indians: 9-4
Mariners: 9-4

So, while the Yankees (in this measure) were not the best in league, they were sort of average (among teams with decent pitching).

And, for the record, 360 pitchers in all of baseball threw at least 200 IP from 2001 through 2005 - and 165 of them stunk. That's a shade under half of them stinking. So, ratio-wise, the Yankees were way ahead of the overall average.

Somewhat related, here's some trivia to use on your friends. The last time the Yankees had 4 pitchers on a staff where they each threw 200+ IP for the team was 2003 (Mussina, Clemens, Pettitte and Wells). Before 2003, when was the last time that the Yankees had at least 4 pitchers who each threw 200+ IP in that season?

Answer: 1975 (with Rudy May, Catfish Hunter, Doc Medich and Pat Dobson).

Now, if you really want to be tricky, ask the question as: The last time the Yankees had 4 pitchers on a staff where they each threw 200+ IP for the team was 2003 (Mussina, Clemens, Pettitte and Wells). Before 2003, when was the last time that the team from the Bronx had at least 4 pitchers who each threw 200+ IP in that season?

Answer: 1971 (with Mel Stottlemyre, Steve Kline, Fritz Peterson and Stan Bahnsen).

The trick here is that the Yankees played in Queens during 1975.

It's stuff like this that runs threw my head on slow-news days for the Yankees. Scary, huh?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 01:40 PM | Comments (0)

Cashman Robbin' Good?

Today, I was curious about "Who were the most effective Yankees batters during their present no-rings streak?" So, I turned to the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia for help. This is what I found:

I was surprised to see Robin Ventura make the top ten above. It's been 2 1/4 years since Ventura wore a Yankees uniform - and that time which passed has mistakenly allowed the thought of him to fall somewhere between Ron Coomer and Antonio Osuna in my topical Yankees memory. In any event, based on his rankings, it's safe to say that the acquisition of Ventura was a pretty good deal for the Yankees.

It happened on Pearl Harbor Day 2001 - when Brian Cashman swapped David Justice to the Mets for Ventura. (Justice played just one more year after the trade and then retired.)

This coming Wednesday will be the 4th anniversary of the Justice-Ventura deal. I hope that Cashman can mark that milestone with another acquisition that works as well in New York's favor.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:56 AM | Comments (3)

December 04, 2005

Jeff Williams

I was just looking at the stats for Jeff Williams this past season in Japan, playing for the Hanshin Tigers:

75 Games, 77 IP, 58 H, 24 BB, 90 SO and an ERA of 2.11

This is nothing new for Williams in Japan - in fact, the last three seasons in Japan he's done very well. A native of Australia, Williams has the look of left-handed specialist all over him:

Yes, he did pitch with the Dodgers from 1999 through 2002 and got knocked around in the 57.2 IP that he threw. And, yes, he will be 34-years-old next season.

But, considering the Yankees need for a LH in the pen, and the fact that the Hanshin club needs money, would it not make sense for New York to try and get this pitcher?

I mean, heck, the Yankees have tried the likes of Felix Heredia, Alan Embree, C.J. Nitkowski, and Wayne Franklin. Giving Jeff Williams a chance is no crime after parading those other guys out there these past few years.

Shoot, Williams even pitched against the Yankees during the games in Japan two years ago. It's not like he's been under a rock or something.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:27 AM | Comments (1)

Cash Looking To Trade This Week?

From the Asbury Park Press:

"This particular free-agent market has been difficult and because of that it will promote a lot more aggressive trade discussions," Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. "That's my opinion."

Cashman is open to the idea of trading Jorge Posada and signing a less-expensive replacement, say Bengie Molina. By the end of the four-day meeting, other possibilities could arise.

"When people strike out on plan A, B, C and D, they go into overdrive for other remaining opportunities," Cashman said. "Teams are more willing to do things in mid-December and January that they may not have considered doing in November."

Cashman is not quoted on the Posada thing. Still, if they haven't been able to trade Jorge the past two months, do they really think the market for him is going to open up now?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:25 AM | Comments (9)

Yanks The Biggest Loser?

From the Daily News:

Despite drawing more than four million fans, the Yankees lost between $50 million and $85 million for the 2005 season, several Major League Baseball sources told the New York Daily News. The benefactors of baseball, who pumped more than $200 million into their payroll and almost $110 million into revenue sharing and luxury tax, are deep in the red this year.

"Yes, even George has his limits," one source said.

And it may get worse.

According to lawyers close to the situation, the Yankees might have to share additional revenue with poorer clubs if a consultant hired by MLB decides they undervalued their television rights. The Yankees currently charge the YES Network about $60 million a year to broadcast games, but the consultant is expected to say the rights are worth far more. If he does, that will mean the Yankees will be required to make up the difference and put more money into the revenue-sharing fund.

The Yankees and the YES Network might appear to be one and the same, but the ownership of each is constructed differently and they are required by baseball to operate as two separate entities. MLB doesn't want clubs with their own networks to hide team revenues in network accounting books as a way to avoid revenue sharing.

"They're going to owe us money," one MLB source predicted.

Hey, take Kevin Brown off the team and that $50 million is closer to $30 million. And, that doesn't seem all that bad. If the Yankees are smart with what they pay who, they should be OK going forward.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:19 AM | Comments (7)

December 03, 2005

Go-Go Giambi

I was just thumbing through the Yankees stats in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006. Specifically, I was looking at their chart for base running.

There's a stat that they include in the book called "Incremental Run Percentage" or "IRP." This is the baby of Dan Fox and it "expresses the rate at which a batter" as a base runner "advanced compared to his opportunities. Average is 100, above 100 is good and below 100 is not so good."

Here are the 2005 "IRP" numbers for select Yankees players:

Bernie Williams: 92.
No shock there.

Tino Martinez: 20.
Jorge Posada: 89.
Still no shocks.

Derek Jeter: 114.
OK, this is all a tease - get ready now for the fun stuff.

Tony Womack: 90.
Now, while this may shock some, it doesn't knock me for a loop. I seem to recall a few times last year where I thought Tony was mailing it in on the bases - especially late in the year when he was just a ticked-off pinch runner.

Alex Rodriguez: 98.
I thought A-Rod would have been higher - because of his rep as a heady-player. Still, it's close to average.

Hideki Matsui: 118.
Just another thing he always does right.

Robinson Cano: 149.
This mark was one of the ten best in all of baseball in 2005.

Gary Sheffield: 114.
Amazing considering he could barely walk at the end of the year.

Bubba Crosby: 89.
Maybe another reason why he's just the fall-back plan for CF in 2006.

And, last, but not least........

Jason Giambi: 129.
Yes, 129. The only regular on the team with a better mark was Cano.

It's funny, just last month I read in The Bill James Handbook 2006:

On the bases, Jason Giambi went from 1st to 3rd in 47% of his chances (14-30) whereas Tony Womack did it 33% of the time (5-15).

Jason Giambi, good base runner.
It sounds like a mega-oxymoron.
But, according to the stats, it's as straight up as six o'clock.

I think that next year I will have to stop screaming "Get a runner in there Joe!" at the TV when Giambi reaches base late in a game.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:30 PM | Comments (10)

John Olerud

From Jon Heyman, in Newsday:

The Yankees are crazy if they don't sign John Olerud. A-Rod calls Olerud "the best guy in baseball."

Sign Olerud to do what? Play first? That's silly - because you kill Giambi when you ask him to be a D.H.

Secondly, Olerud, from 2003 through 2005, has just been a league-average hitter. And, he'll be 37 next season.

I think they would be crazy to sign him.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:22 PM | Comments (3)

Making Apperances

To my knowledge, no one was aware of this chase for a Yankees record last year.

Derek Jeter came within 6 Plate Appearances (PA) of setting the franchise record for most PA in a season - a record that has stood for 67 years. The Yankees Top 10 in PA for a season, via the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia:

Jeter only took three games off last year. But, if he had played in one of those three, the record probably would have been his - considering he batted lead-off in 2005.

For what it's worth, Frankie Crosetti got some help in 1938 to set the record. The Yankees, according to their won-loss record, "played" 152 games in 1938. But, Crosetti "played" in 157 games that season. How? I would bet there were some games "called" because of playing conditions where the score was tied - and the stats counted for the players but the games did not count in the standings.

There's always another chance next year Derek!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:41 AM | Comments (1)

Cash Now Wide Open On CF

From the Post:

"It's going to be hard for me to predict on center field," Cashman said. "It's going to be something that will evolve over time. Right now, it's Bubba Crosby on paper or somebody else from our system. But over time, maybe as early as [the winter meetings that start Monday in Dallas], we are hoping some more legitimate choices that the price tag, whether it's a free agent or a trade, hopefully the price tag make sense to us.

If it does, we will be very aggressive. It's a developing situation, one that I can't really handicap."

So, it's Bubba, someone from the farm, someone from a trade, or a Free Agent.

Looks like the field, to me, is Bubba Crosby, Kevin Thompson, Joey Gathright, Jason Michaels, Juan Pierre, Craig Monroe or Nook Logan, Juan Encarnacion, Johnny Damon, Nomar Garciaparra, Torii Hunter, or Jeremy Reed.

Or maybe someone like Brad Wilkerson or Dave Roberts or Wily Mo Pena - who have not been discussed as much in these parts? See below from the Chicago Tribune:

San Diego is shopping some of its middle-aged players, including pitcher Adam Eaton and third baseman Sean Burroughs. The re-signing of Brian Giles probably means center fielder Dave Roberts is a goner. ... The Reds are hoping to get pitching help for Austin Kearns or Pena with the Cubs still a rumored possibility. ... ... Washington will try to use its surplus of outfielders and middle infielders to land a starter, with Jose Vidro, Junior Spivey, Brad Wilkerson, Ryan Church and Marlon Byrd in several discussions.

With so many options, I think Cashman is going to sit and wait for the person that comes cheap. Don't be shocked if it does not happen until some of the names mentioned above start to find homes and the market starts to change towards the buyers favor.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 09:37 AM | Comments (1)

December 02, 2005

Wish List To Send North

From the Toronto Star the other day:

Some current Jays are on the trade bubble. Most GMs, entering a player's final year before free agency, try to lock him up long-term or make a trade before losing him for nothing. Jay players slated to become free agents after '06 include Hillenbrand, Schoeneweis, Catalanotto, Batista, Speier and Lilly.

None of these six figure into the team's long-term plans, so look for Ricciardi to dangle most of them — with the exception of Schoeneweis, the club's only experienced lefty setup man — at the winter meetings in Dallas next week.

I hope the Yankees are listening. Frank Catalanotto would make for an excellent DH in New York in 2006 - against RHP. And, Justin Speier would be a wonderful addition to the Yankees bullpen - as a 4th behind Rivera, Farnsworth, and Sturtze.

How much could Toronto want for both of them - given their contract status? Doesn't Carl Pavano's girlfriend like it in Canada? Nah, that's right, Brian Cashman wants to keep Carl - never mind. How about Scott Proctor and Bronson Sardinha - in a two-for-two? Only problem there is that I heard the Yankees might expose Bronson in the Rule V Draft - and after his good numbers in the AFL this year he might be taken.

It would be nice to see if there's a way that these two (or even just one of them) can come to the Yankees without having to give up any Grade-A prospects. At the least, New York should inquire - I would hope.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:59 PM | Comments (3)

What's A Farnsworth?

Hopefully it's about $170,000 per "hold" in 2006.

I know, it sounds crack-pipe high, but, it will be worth every penny.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:57 PM | Comments (1)

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006

This past Tuesday, I received a copy of The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006.

I have to confess, when I looked at it for the very first time on Tuesday night, I was initially overwhelmed at its content. Truly, my first reaction was "This thing is so jam-packed that I don't know if I can read it. I'm not even sure where to start?" Honestly, it was somewhat intimidating - like a normal appetite person sitting down in front of the "Norm Peterson Special" at the "Hungry Heifer." But, determined to give it a try, I started thumbing through the book nonetheless.

This book is penned, as the title would suggest, by the gang over at The Hardball Times (THT). If you're not familiar with them, let me share that they are a very smart outfit - but not an elitist (which happens sometimes with smart folks) ivory-tower-type group. I've personally corresponded with Brian Borawski, Dan Fox, and Aaron Gleeman (among others at THT) recently (before reading this book) and they were very approachable and accommodating with me. That's one reason why I wanted to try their book.

In addition to the work from the THT brain trust, the book also contains "guest contributions" from several noted and enjoyable baseball authors - such as Rob Neyer, Bill James, Alex Belth (again, among many others). That was another draw here for me.

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 provides an extensive review of the 2005 season (including the post-season) plus an additional 11 essays on topics from the 2005 season - including Alex Belth's fun guest piece "Never a Dull Moment" detailing the happenings in the Bronx this season.

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 also includes 4 great essays related to baseball history - including Bill James Hall of Fame case made for Bert Blyleven. And, there are also 9 essays that the "stat heads" will enjoy - such as "What's so magic about 100 pitches?" and "What's a batted ball worth?" and "Do players control batted balls?"

Lastly, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 provides pages and pages of stats, stats, and more stats. There are stats on every team and player from the game - and the types of stats that you just don't see everywhere - like Fielding Independent Pitching, Homeruns per Outfield Fly, Incremental Baserunning Runs, etc.

Now, the stats-thing is worth expanding on - because these stats are not for the person who thinks Neifi Perez is helpful because he's a middle infielder who hit .274 last year with 9 homers. Because of the sophistication and amount of the stats that are found in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006, if you're someone who hates the deep thought "stats-side" of baseball, then this book is not for you.

But, if you're someone who felt like you were holding the Holy Grail the first time that you read one of Bill James Baseball Abstracts, then you're going to love The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006. I must confess, on my third night of thumbing through the book, that's what it felt like for me - like it was 1982 all over again and I was reading a "Baseball Abstract" for the first personal time.

As a Yankees fan, in addition to the Belth essay, you'll enjoy learning things like the fact that Robinson Cano was one of the best base runners in the game, and that the Yankees defense was truly terrible last year, and that the lack of a bench probably cost the Yankees about 5 wins in 2005 - and home field in the ALDS.

And, if you like players on other teams, and/or learning about other teams, you'll find lots of juicy stuff on them in this book as well. It's more than worth the $17.95 (suggested retail price). You'll get at least 6 hours of enjoyment from the book - probably much more. Think about that - how many long-lasting good times these days can you get for less than three bucks an hour? It's a bargain.

I highly recommend The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006. I've read many books like this over the last 25 years and this one is right up there among the best of the group. I'm very happy to have the chance to review it.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 02:10 PM | Comments (5)

The Hits Keep Coming

Well, that lasted long - one day!

WasWatching.com had 8,304 hits yesterday - which is now the "new" all-time record for this site in terms of most hits in one day.

Thanks again to everyone for this incredible interest and support!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:17 AM | Comments (3)

Henn & Proctor For Pierre

From the New York Post:

The last time Juan Pierre played center field in Yankee Stadium, he helped the Marlins win the 2003 World Series. Now, Pierre could be returning to The Bronx as the Yankees’ center-fielder. The cash-dumping Marlins have asked for lefty Sean Henn and right-handed reliever Scott Proctor for Pierre, and the Yankees didn’t reject the offer.

I would trade Proctor for a piss warm beer on a steamy hot August afternoon. So, he doesn't bother me here.

Henn, on the other hand, I'm on the fence about. Based on last season, I like him - and would want to see him in AAA for the full year in 2006 before letting him go. But, overall, I have to remind myself that he's going to be 25 next April - and had bad elbow problems in 2002 and shoulder problems in 2003. So, basically, it's only the last two years that he's been able to take the hill. So, he may need another two full seasons at Triple-A to get his skills down - and then he's 27.

It can go either way on Henn, to be honest.

But, Pierre, gosh, why? He's not a great ranging CF, does not have a strong arm, and his probably the worst batting full-time CF in the major leagues. If you don't believe me, ask the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia:

Now, on the plus-side, Pierre is very durable and a true pest on the bases. And, in reality, on the Yankees, he could bat 9th (if Torre was smart) and the team could carry his lack of bat. It's not like Pierre is Tony-Womack-like-bad at the plate. Juan is Darin-Erstad-like, offensively, that's all.

But, you know the Yankees would do something stupid and bat him lead-off. Plus, again, he's not going to help the pitchers in the field - which is what you want when the guy has no stick.

Bubba Crosby can chase them down in CF. I'm guessing that the Yankees are so unsure about his bat - and fearing that he could be even worse than a Pierre-type at the plate - that they would consider this deal.

OK, that's everything that I got at this moment. What's my final answer? Shockingly, I would do this deal under two conditions.

First, the lock-promise that the Yankees would bat Pierre 9th in the line-up - and that's it. Secondly, some bad news on the long-term health-risk of Henn that only the Yankees know.

If New York is worried about Henn being able to stay sound, and is smart enough to know that you do not bat a .280-hitter who never walks in the one-hole, then maybe I would not bitch about this deal over the next 11 months.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:34 AM | Comments (5)

Do White Right

Some Roy White history via the Journal News:

White doesn't want to lose any of the currency he's built up with the fans who still approach him to say thanks for far more than his 15 seasons in the Yankee Stadium sun.

"They mostly thank me for being a gentleman, for providing an image that young people could follow on the field," White said. "Thirty years later, they thank me for being the only guy who stopped to sign autographs for their 7-year-old kids. Those are the most rewarding things to hear."

Of course, they also thank him for hitting .333 and driving in four runs against the Dodgers in the '78 Series. They thank him for hitting .400 and .313 in back-to-back ALCS victories over the Royals. They thank him for that seventh-inning single allowing Bucky Dent to send another Red Sox season going, going, gone over the great green wall.

The fans also thank him for his steadying hand during the grim days of Mickey Mantle's decline, through the Horace Clarke ice age, all the way through the Reggie-Billy-George wars. White was there for CBS' ownership, for the wife-swapping pitchers, for Thurman Munson's first and last games. White was out in left for so long, Willie Randolph used to throw peanuts at him as a kid in the stands.

White batted in front of Mantle and — during three seasons in Japan — he batted in front of Sadaharu Oh. He won a Japan Series with the Giants to go with his two championships in New York. White was a great defensive left fielder, a switch-hitter who homered from each side of the plate in five games, a guy Whitey Ford has called the most underappreciated Yankee of them all. White became the first Yankee to play a full season of error-free ball.

Only Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Yogi Berra, Babe Ruth and Bernie Williams have played more games as a Yankee. White still stands today among the top 15 Yankees all-time in steals (fourth), walks (sixth), sacrifice flies (third), hits (11th), total bases (11th), runs (12th), doubles (14th) and extra-base hits (14th).

But he was never among the franchise's chosen sons. No plaque, no day, no Yankeeography, and no Joe Girardi-like rise through the coaching ranks. White spent five years of hard time in the A's farm system before getting the call to coach first base in the Bronx. Back in '93, Steinbrenner didn't even invite him to an Old-Timers' Day ceremony because he believed White tried to convince Dave Righetti to leave the Yanks for Japan. Boss George only changed his mind when his snub was made public, instructing a marketing aide to phone White with an invite.

I must agree, strongly, if anyone deserves a Yankeeography, it's Roy White. That is waaaaaaay overdue.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 08:28 AM | Comments (3)

Gone In A Flash

As reported by Ken Rosenthal -

Free-agent right-hander Tom Gordon has signed a three-year contract to be the Phillies' closer, FOXSports.com has learned.

The value of the deal is believed to be $18 million.

The Yankees made a late push for Gordon, increasing their offer from two to three years in their bid to retain him as Mariano Rivera's setup man.

Why the late push with the offer for three? Something may be up.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 12:05 AM | Comments (6)

December 01, 2005

Can We At Least Wait For The Body To Get Cold?

From Beckett.com -

If you’ve enjoyed the sound of the Yankee Stadium organ over the years, its yours for the taking. The organ, played by the late Yankee Stadium legend, Eddie Layton will be just one of over 200 items to go on the block during an auction to be held from 3-6PM on Friday, December 9th by Yankees-Steiner Collectibles and Grey Flannel Auctions. This is the first auction to be held at Yankee Stadium and the first auction ever to be sanctioned and authorized by the New York Yankees.

For those who think they could do Joe Torre’s job, how about sitting in his chair? The Yankees Manager’s desk chair will be auctioned off along with some of the most historic memorabilia in Yankees history including; the earliest known autographed Mickey Mantle game bat, a Babe Ruth game used bat, jerseys from the last decade worn by Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neil, Mariano Rivera, Tino Martinez and more. In addition, an incredible game-used Roger Clemens jersey from his first season as a Yankee. Also included in the auction is a 1942 Joe DiMaggio game-used pinstripe jersey, Mickey Mantle’s 1955 game-used autographed jersey and numerous other one of a kind iconic memorabilia from the history of the New York Yankees.

Fans will also be able to bid on many great Ruth and Gehrig autographed items, a section of Yankee Stadium’s outfield wall pad, including the 399-foot marker and Derek Jeter’s 2005 Opening Day jersey. The items up for bid range in price from $1000 to over $100,000

Would it not make more sense, and be nicer to Yankees fans, if they just start a "Yankees Museum" in the plaza that's going to surround the new Stadium - and fill it with this stuff?

Sure, you can sell Layton's organ (boy, that sounds bad) for $25,000 - or you can charge millions of people a year $10 a person to see it, and other things, at the musuem. The Yankees have talked about wanting to make the area around the new digs a place that you would go to for hours before and after a game - as well as on days when there was no game - would not a "Yankees Musuem" be a reason to go there outside of the game?

Penny wise and pound foolish, if you ask me.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 11:46 PM | Comments (0)

Bobby Abreu, Mike Lieberthal Trade Rumor

From the Morning Call:

An intriguing trade rumor circulating has the Phillies sending All-Star outfielder Bobby Abreu and veteran catcher Mike Lieberthal to the Yankees in exchange for catcher Jorge Posada, pitcher Carl Pavano and third base prospect Eric Duncan. New Yankee bullpen coach Joe Kerrigan has been highly critical of how Lieberthal calls a game and it's doubtful he'd endorse this swap.

Some might think I'm crazy, but, I would not do this deal. Lieberthal is on the downside and there's something about Abreu that says "beware" to me. It could be that posse that he had at the All-Star game in Motown this year. Or, the fact that he's looking more like a 20/30 guy instead of a 30/40 guy - not that there's anything wrong with a 20/30 guy. It's his OPS that concerns me - he's probably more of a .880 guy now than a .970 guy. It's a different game now, you know. And, I've heard that he's Manny-like-moody.

I realize that the Yankees are dealing two huge questions marks here themselves, with a prospect, but, better the question marks that you know than the ones that you don't know.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 04:17 PM | Comments (15)

The Baseball Same Game

This is just a reminder that, if you're looking for the unique holiday gift for the diehard baseball fan in your life - or, for yourself, if you're the one who loves the game - you should consider "The Baseball Same Game."

To see how others have enjoyed the book, just check the reviews to date by clicking here.

Order it soon via Amazon.com to ensure delivery in time for the holidays!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:39 PM | Comments (0)

Yesterday's Big Day

WasWatching.com had 7,313 hits yesterday - which is now the all-time record for this site in terms of most hits in one day.

Thanks to everyone for this incredible interest and support!

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 03:19 PM | Comments (8)

Fishing For Oh-Six Jorge

Just for the Halibut, I decided to take a stab at what should be expected from Jorge Posada, with the bat, in 2006.

We know that Posada's production went down from 2003 to 2004 and then again from 2004 to 2005. Can that be used for a projection to determine his expected production for 2006? Why not? Here are the numbers:

Posada's "decline rates" appear under his stats for 2003-05. "06 Projection 1" takes his decline rate for 2003 to 2004 and the one from 2004 to 2005 and then uses an average of the two (applied to his 2005 production). "06 Projection 2" uses only the decline rate for 2004 to 2005. And, then I took the two projections and found the average.

It's not looking pretty for Posada with the stick next season.

This model predicts about 15 HRs, a .250 BA, an On Base Average near 3, and a Slugging Percentage under 4.

If the Yankees are planning on batting Posada in the 6th or 7th slot of their line-up next year, that's a big risk. Based on his trending, he should bat no higher than 8th in 2006. Yet another reason why the Yankees need to get another bat this winter.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at 10:57 AM | Comments (27)