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December 01, 2005

Fishing For Oh-Six Jorge

Just for the Halibut, I decided to take a stab at what should be expected from Jorge Posada, with the bat, in 2006.

We know that Posada's production went down from 2003 to 2004 and then again from 2004 to 2005. Can that be used for a projection to determine his expected production for 2006? Why not? Here are the numbers:

jorge06.jpg

Posada's "decline rates" appear under his stats for 2003-05. "06 Projection 1" takes his decline rate for 2003 to 2004 and the one from 2004 to 2005 and then uses an average of the two (applied to his 2005 production). "06 Projection 2" uses only the decline rate for 2004 to 2005. And, then I took the two projections and found the average.

It's not looking pretty for Posada with the stick next season.

This model predicts about 15 HRs, a .250 BA, an On Base Average near 3, and a Slugging Percentage under 4.

If the Yankees are planning on batting Posada in the 6th or 7th slot of their line-up next year, that's a big risk. Based on his trending, he should bat no higher than 8th in 2006. Yet another reason why the Yankees need to get another bat this winter.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at December 1, 2005 10:57 AM

Comments

I'm curious Steve. Who do you think we should reel in?

Posted by: Scott Coulter [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 11:28 AM

Ideally, an OF (who would allow Sheffield to DH) or someone who could DH most of the time and maybe spell Giambi and/or Sheffield in the field on occasion.

The "who" is hard to say. But, in many entries, I've made some suggestions.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 11:32 AM

Robert Fick can be had cheaply. Bats lefty, can catch, play 1b and the OF a bit. He can also come off the bench.

The disgraced Rafael Palmiero can be had cheaply. See what he can do for a year.

Frank Thomas is out there. Same as Palmiero, see what he can do for a year.

Jeff Conine? Erubiel Durazo?

Give Rondell White or Kenny Lofton another shot?

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 11:48 AM

I like Royal Air Force's idea re: the (semi-)Big Hurt.

16 jacks and 61 RBIs is still one heck of a catcher vs. all AL catcher VORPs.

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 12:59 PM

Raf, the good thing about that list of names is that they'll still be available in January...at the very least. I think Cashman has it right, priority wise...you can pick up a DH as late as February, well after you've made your other, more pressing moves. Personally, I think Durazo would be perfect for Yankee Stadium. God knows what Beane would ask though in return.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 01:04 PM

Actually, the only one who fits the SL description is Robert Fick. The rest are single-position players, or, in the case of Durazo, don't even actually field a position at all. But, I agree, Cashman knows what he is doing, such a player can be picked up after the first of the year. Frank Thomas is intriguing because he realy can hit, but he doesn't play any position on the field any more.

Posted by: Scott Coulter [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 01:19 PM

I just checked, and Durazo is a Free Agent. Beane has no trade requirement because it would not be a trade. And he is listed as a DH, not a position player.

Posted by: Scott Coulter [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 01:24 PM

That's good news re: Durazo, because Beane would probably want Cano, Giambi, Rivera and the fixtures in Mr. Steinbrenner's office in Tampa, among other things.

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 01:30 PM

The thought of another year watching Giambi playing/butchering 1st and Sheffield a statue in RF makes me not anxious for the 2006 season.

Posted by: Don [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 01:59 PM

Raf, the good thing about that list of names is that they'll still be available in January...at the very least.
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It depends on who gets offered arbitration. Many of the players I listed can be had for relatively cheap. Couldn't hurt to take a gamble on them. Especially players like Thomas, Durazo and Palmiero. A year to see if they have anything left, or in Durazo's case, can bounce back.

At the very least, waiting this long, may as well see who gets nontendered.

Hopefully, Cashman will earn his stripes this offseason. He's going to have to be creative to fill the problems the Yanks have. Which is ok with me. While I have no problem with the Yanks throwing $$ around ($$ is a resource like anything else), I can appreciate someone like a Beane who's willing to take risks, and do the unconventional.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 02:24 PM

Actually, the only one who fits the SL description is Robert Fick. The rest are single-position players, or, in the case of Durazo, don't even actually field a position at all.
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Conine: LF, RF, 1b, DH
Palmiero DH, 1b
Durazo: 1b, RF, DH
Thomas: DH, 1b

Even if they're butchers with the glove, like Durazo & Thomas, they're only going to be in the field on a limited basis. Maybe once a week, more if someone gets hurt. Put them out there, hope they don't embarrass themselves, and pull them for a defensive replacement ASAP :)

Looking @ Fick, and the options on the Yankee bench, it's a small wonder they haven't signed him yet.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 02:30 PM

Conine: LF, RF, 1b, DH
Palmiero DH, 1b
Durazo: 1b, RF, DH
Thomas: DH, 1b

Even if they're butchers with the glove, like Durazo & Thomas, they're only going to be in the field on a limited basis. Maybe once a week, more if someone gets hurt. Put them out there, hope they don't embarrass themselves, and pull them for a defensive replacement ASAP :)

Conine, yes but old
Palmiero, no, one dimensional, and old

I wouldn't even let Durazo or Thomas own a glove. Fick and Conine yes, the rest do not fit the parameters laid out.

Posted by: Scott Coulter [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 02:54 PM

Fick is a butcher with the glove and the bat - and someone who's not above giving someone a cheap shot. Why would NY want him?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 02:56 PM

Fisk had a great opportunity in Atlanta and Cox despised his attitude and chippy tactics. If we could somehow wrest Frank Catalanotto from the Blue Jays, he'd be more like what you envision Steve. He can play adequate OF, 1B, and 2b-3b in a pinch (albeit badly).

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 03:26 PM

Are people seriously discussing Palmiero?

In that case, fire Torre and bring in Pete Rose. And the Yanks should also commemorate Ty Cobb in a separate ceremony on Jackie Robinson day....

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 03:33 PM

BTW, if we get anyone from TOR it should be Reed Johnson, who is the Red Sox killer.

Posted by: Jason O. [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 03:35 PM

I would sign on for Frank Catalanotto in a heartbeat. He would be perfect.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 03:50 PM

Fick is a butcher with the glove and the bat - and someone who's not above giving someone a cheap shot.
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An organization that has hired Dwight Gooden, Darryl Strawberry, Steve Howe, Billy Martin, David Wells, etc, etc, etc, and has an owner that is a convicted felon has no business taking the moral high road.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 03:52 PM

Are people seriously discussing Palmiero?
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Sure, why not? If he has anything left, it's worth taking a flyer on him.

Shall we assemble a roster of cokeheads that played for the Yanks?

Hyperbole means nothing when you're trying to win ballgames

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 03:55 PM

Raf - how many of those cokeheads were 41, like Palmeiro will be in 2006?

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 04:06 PM

Raf - how many of those cokeheads were 41, like Palmeiro will be in 2006?
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Does it really matter? Have him come to Tampa to work out. NRI him, take a look, if he doesn't have anything left, cut him loose. Low-risk, high reward. And cheap.

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 04:48 PM

But, bad PR.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 04:58 PM

Bad PR... Right.

Signing Strawberry was bad PR. Signing Gooden & Howe was bad PR. Billy Martin punching out a Marshmallow salesman, fighting Ed Whitson, and getting into a fight @ Lace was bad PR. Firing Bucky Dent in Boston was bad PR. The Pine Tar Game was bad PR. Consulting Howie Spira was bad PR. Haranguing managers, general managers, and other assorted "little people" was bad PR. Winnie killing a seagull was bad PR. The "haircut incident" was bad PR. Firing Yogi 16 games into 1985 was bad PR. So on and so forth.

If the Yanks sign Palmeiro, I wouldn't worry about bad PR

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 05:30 PM

Doing recreational drugs, excess drinking, fights, etc., are forgiven in the general public - since people do these themselves. Lying under oath to the nation is a whole 'nother game. The guy even got booed off his own team. I can't see Yankees fans taking kindly to him, even if just a NRI.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 08:23 PM

Lying under oath to the nation is a whole 'nother game. The guy even got booed off his own team. I can't see Yankees fans taking kindly to him, even if just a NRI.
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At the risk of getting political, it worked for Bill Clinton :D

I don't care if he gets booed off his own team. He wouldn't be the first.

I expect Yanks fans to give him flack, but that'll last right up until the first double or HR

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 11:07 PM

Raf...hmmm...hey, guys, it's Palmeiro! No wonder he's pushing for the big needle-loving lug.

Posted by: JohnnyC [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 1, 2005 11:14 PM

Raf...hmmm...hey, guys, it's Palmeiro! No wonder he's pushing for the big needle-loving lug.
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hehe

C'mon guys, I need a job!

*carrying 'will hit for food' sign*

:D

Posted by: Raf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 3, 2005 01:20 PM