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SL:

Would you do this deal because:

a) Pavano's health is too much of a risk?
b) Pav. is not worth the large contract?
c) The Yanks need a good defensive CF?
d) some combination of above?
d) other?

My question is: We have not seen a healthy Pavano yet over a long stretch. Is it not worth waiting to see this?

All of the above.
Pavano is a great injury risk - and the jury is still out on whether or not he can handle New York.

Plus, Reed might be the best with the mitt in CF in the AL. And, based on his numbers in the minors, I believe that, batting 9th and playing in NY, he could be good for .280 with 15 HRs and 75 runs scored in the next year or two.

The real question is how long that wait will be.
He's already missed half a season w/ a problem that had no real serious diagnosis. MRI's showed no severe damage and his return just kept getting pushed back further and further.
Couple taht with the leaked stories of his regretting coming to NY and you at least have to question whether a part of his disability is above the shoulder, not in it

Pavano needs to get a "help me help you" speech from Cashman. If he really does regret coming to NY and he wants out then he's going to have to work harder to get back to action. The sooner he boosts his value, the sooner we can trade him for something. Until he's showcased something to other teams, we can't just move him to remove a problem. He needs to make his future happen, we shouldn't just make it for him.

Pavano & Wright for Reed and Meche/Pineiro?

Johnson, Moose, Chacon, Wang, Meche/Pineiro, looks pretty nice. Would Seattle bite (I assume the Yanks would, once again, help pay the salaries of Carl & Jaret).

Don't know the number of people who read the hardball times (you all should, IMO; that & Netshrine), but here was their analysis of Pavano

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/free-agent-wrap-up-the-second-wave/
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I devoted a huge part of my preview of the free agent starting pitchers to Carl Pavano, so allow me to reprint some of it now that he's signed his inevitable deal with the Yankees:

Even assuming for a moment that he has gotten over the injury bug and will now be a healthy pitcher for the foreseeable future, what Pavano did in 2004 screams fluke. There is no denying that his 3.00 ERA this year was excellent, but when you look a little closer at some of his numbers you can see some problems. Take a look at Pavano's pitching with the Marlins in 2002/2003, compared to this year.

ERA SO% BB% HR% BIPH
2002-03 4.18 15.6 5.7 2.1 .303
2004 3.00 15.3 5.4 1.8 .282

As you can see, his strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed occurred at nearly identical rates in both time periods. From 2002-03, Pavano got a strikeout against 15.6% of the batters he faced and he struck out 15.3% last year. He allowed a walk 5.7% of the time in 2002/03 and 5.4% of the time this season. He gave up a homer 2.1% of the time in 2002/03 and 1.8% of the time last season (a difference of about 3-4 homers over the course of a season). The one major difference in his performance (aside from ERA) is the fact that 30.3% of the balls put in play against Pavano in 2002/03 went for hits, while that number dropped to 28.2% in 2004.

That may not seem like a big deal, but it is. If Pavano had duplicated hit ball-in-play numbers from 2002/03 this season, he would have allowed 15 more hits than he did, which would have inflated his batting average against from .253 to .271. If you choose to believe that Pavano learned how to better prevent hits on balls in play in 2004, then he is likely to repeat that feat in future seasons, but I choose to believe he benefited from some good defense and a little luck (particularly considering the Marlins as a whole allowed 30.0% of balls in play to fall for hits and the entire NL was at 30.5%).

Yankee Stadium, while a pitcher's ballpark, doesn't deflate offense nearly as much as Pro Player, and Pavano will now have to face a DH instead of a pitcher each time through the lineup. Plus, New York's defense won't be in the same league as Florida's, even if they end up with Carlos Beltran in center field. In other words, Pavano may have seen his last ERA in the threes for a while, and I wouldn't be surprised if his ERA is closer to 5.00 than 3.00 in 2005. For all the money they're throwing around and all the talk about improving their rotation, the Yankees look like they're basically collecting middle-of-the-rotation starters and paying premium money in doing so.
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If you scrolled ahead, in summary, move him while you can