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August 01, 2005

Giambi Rolling, Raffy Busted, And Future Speculation

The commute this morning was one of the bad ones. There was an accident on the GSP, that brought cause for three lanes to be closed. So, I sat in traffic, and crept along, at 10 MPH, when allowed. In the end, a trip that should have taken about an hour took over three hours to complete. But, as a result, I had the chance to listen to the radio this morning for a while. And, on both 660 AM and 1050 AM in NYC, there was a lot of buzz about Giambi, and the month that he put together at the dish for July. And, on 660 AM, there were more than a few callers saying things like "I would bet my house that he's back on the juice" etc. (And, I would guess that most of these types of calls were coming from Mets fans.)

Now, I can't get on these callers, at least not 100%. After all, about two weeks ago, I suggested that, with respect to Giambi's turnaround and the cause for it, that it would not be unfair to consider the use of PEDs, etc. It's really not an outrageous connection for someone to try and make work - just looking at the surface of things. Further, later, when I eventually made it to work, as I was going to my desk, a co-worker (who knows that I'm a Yankees fan) stopped me and said "What's with that Giambi? Somebody should get him to pee in a cup or something." Yes, it's beginning to look like it's open season on Giambi, now that he's been Ruthian for the past month.

And, with the news today about Rafael Palmeiro getting busted for PEDs, well, I would have to think that we could hear more people suggesting that Giambi is juicing - because steroids-talk will be filling the air, everywhere, now, once again.

However, deeper than what's on the surface, there's one thing about Giambi's recent homerun explosion that I think people might be missing. First off, many of those long balls in July for Giambi came in the Bronx - actually, it's 8 of 14. And, unless my eyes are playing tricks on me, most of those "home homers" were 1970's style - meaning they just cleared the fence. (Also, I believe the one he hit in Fenway recently was a Pesky Pole job.) If I had to guess, I would say that at least half of the homers that Giambi hit in July were around 350 feet long (or less).

In the past, when Giambi was on something, he was not hitting homeruns under 375 feet on a consistent basis. Most of his shots were 385-425 feet long, again, if I had to guess. If anything, I think Giambi's July Tater Party is more the result of making good contact and being lucky where some of the balls were hit (in terms of direction and the park). And, because of this, I do not think that Jason Giambi should have to go under the microscope at this moment. But, I doubt that the media will be as willing to allow this to pass right now. Time will tell.

Posted by Steve Lombardi at August 1, 2005 01:28 PM

Comments

Giambi looks to me like, if anything, he's lost weight. He's gone first-to-third on singles a few times in the past weeks without looking like he's going to pass out. You can speculate all you want that the power is artificial, but steroids do not to my knowledge make you hit to all fields, bunt up the third base line, and take extra bases.

Posted by: hopbitters at August 1, 2005 02:28 PM

Tests will tell.

At least Giambi told the truth when under oath. That should qualify him as far more decent than the others.

Raffy lied and is prevaricating now, saying he never knowingly cheated. Yeah, right. Gimmee that stuff but don't tell me what's in it, I don't care and besides I want deniability. And I can get him a bridge in Brooklyn real cheap.

Posted by: Don at August 1, 2005 02:41 PM

Had to comment on the bunt thing. My best friend and I constantly agonize over why players don't drop bunts down the third base line when the shift is on (he's a Phillies fan and sees it constantly with Thome). Is there some reason other than stubbornness and an unwillingness to give in to the defense that this isn't done more often? I'm of the opinion that 1-2 bunt singles a month will get the defense back to a more standard alignment, except when the situation makes a bunt single worthless.

Posted by: DFLNJ at August 1, 2005 02:45 PM

FWIW, IIRC, Giambi's bunted twice. So, it can be done.

Why they don't? Gotta be ego and the fear of failure.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi at August 1, 2005 02:50 PM

He has bunted twice. To me, that's what really changed Giambi's season around - not bunting, specifically, but showing the willingness to swallow his pride and take what was given. I can't say for sure he's not juicing, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, because of the other things he's done the right way.

Posted by: hopbitters at August 1, 2005 03:19 PM

Some of Giambi's homers have indeed been wall-scrapers. However, there are some that he absolutely obliterated. That game winner against Pittsburgh was hammered. And then a few weeks back on a Sunday afternoon game he LAUNCHED a laser to the last few rows of the RF bleachers. I am really hoping he's not back on the 'roids 'cause that's the last thing the Yankees need right now.

Posted by: JJay at August 1, 2005 03:31 PM

Those two were monsters, agreed. But, I think the ones in the 330' range out number them by a lot, in terms of the July HRs.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi at August 1, 2005 03:36 PM

"Those two were monsters, agreed. But, I think the ones in the 330' range out number them by a lot, in terms of the July HRs."

I definitely agree. Just saying that he still does have that 400+ foot pop left in his bat.

Tino though...ALL of his seem to just barely eek their way over the wall. Even back when he was on that super-streak.

Posted by: JJay at August 1, 2005 03:55 PM

JJay, I'm just glad that Tino's ball yesterday barely eeked its way under Erstad's glove.

Giambi is the same weight (230s) as when he was on the sauce, just not as lean, which makes perfect sense. He still lifts 90 mins. per day x 4 days a week.

Stranger things have happened, but I don't think he's taking anything illegal since the benign tumor.

Posted by: Jason O. at August 1, 2005 04:06 PM

Given all the other players that have failed MLB's steroid policy, do you honestly think they have that much of an affect?

Posted by: Raf at August 1, 2005 04:18 PM

The more I think about it, the less sense it makes for Giambi to be juicing (not that people tend to do things because they make sense). If you're Giambi and you're going to go back to the juice, why would you change other things about your game? Why make those bunts and work out with Donny? Presumably, if you're back on the juice, you'll just go back to hitting like you used to. That's why you're doing it, right? The other thing, that Jason O. just reminded me of, is the tumor. Wouldn't a tumor (benign or not) give you just a little pause before you went shoving bad things back into your body?

Posted by: hopbitters at August 1, 2005 04:18 PM

If you are Rafael Palmeiro why would you risk everything you ever worked, err, played for with only two months left in your career? Saying that you don't "think" Giambi is back on the juice because it doesn't "make sense", also doesn't make sense. By saying that any of these guys do what makes sense is beyond reasoning - does Palmeiro have less or more to lose than Gaimbi because of a tumor? First off, we have no hard evidence of any tumor at all, other than a Yankee doctor telling us what it was. And FWIW, given Giambi's past, he SHOULD have to pee in a cup everyday, give blood once a week, and a hair sample on demand if he wants any of us to believe that he's not back on illegals. He lied once, Yankee fans supported him, boo'd him when he was bad, turned their heads when he's hot again, and for some reason are back to square one: fighting off the rumors and lending support to something you really have no idea about. Until Giambi is tested again, passes the test with flying colors, and continues to hit balls afterwards - he's a cheat, and I'll treat him as such. 14HR's in July? C'mon, are we all really going to sink to the level at which we turn our collective heads and compare distances of old HR's v. new? Take a test Giambi, prove everyone wrong (if you can), and then you will be in the clear, but until that time, the cloud of doubt will always be over every ball you hit...well, all but the two bunts you laid down the line and wobbled to first.

Posted by: Brad at August 2, 2005 12:04 AM

Everyone's WAY over-reacting. It's one month.

People are incredibly ignorant if they think that you can pop a few pills or inject a few CCs of magic juice and get a quick reaction and jack fourteen bombs in a month.

I really think you'd need to do this sort of work over the offseason. You've got to build yourself up, which would be difficult during the season, when five or six hours of baseball work per day (EVERY damn day) would be very catabolic.

hGH or deca or wistrol is not just going to give you instant, next-day batspeed. Dislike Jason if you want, call him a cheater, no problem, he did cheat. But this past July means nothing.

Posted by: Jeff at August 2, 2005 01:39 AM

There I go again, presuming people innocent until proven guilty. Let's review what we KNOW, as opposed to what we believe :

Palmeiro : was suspended for a positive test for an undisclosed substance

Giambi : has not failed a test yet. Was said to have admitted steroid use in leaked testimony that had to have come from someone sworn not to leak it, which makes them about as reliable as the Yankee bullpen.

Now, I believe without reservation that Giambi took steroids. I don't believe his current streak is the result of renewed steroid use, but I don't dismiss it from the realm of possibility.

It's a very different experience between someone telling you something might give you cancer and actually being in the hospital with a tumor.

Posted by: hopbitters at August 2, 2005 10:07 AM

One of the problems with the testing policy is that the public doesn't know when a player has passed a test. For all we know, Giambi could have passed the test with flying colors this past month.

The steroid scandal is disheartening for so many reasons including the way everyone who is a fan becomes Nancy Grace and starts to throw out uninformed wild accusations about players' guilt. I guess it's a matter of temper but I follow the innocent until proven guilty rule especially when I don't know anything about what's going on behind the scenes. Because it would really bother me if I accused a guiltless man of a thing he did not do. I would think less of myself. I'd rather be a dupe than a jerk in that way.

Posted by: Nick at August 2, 2005 10:08 AM

Nancy Grace reference is so right on...that is hilarious.

Posted by: Jason O. at August 2, 2005 10:29 AM

I wonder if Giambi "thinks" he is back on the juice- but instead- is getting a placebo from his personal trainer? :)

The key to hitting for Giambi is all about confidence....but what is the source of that confidence? Is it the fact that he hit a couple of homeruns and is buidling off of that? Or is truly a physical dependency on some sort of substance?

My $$$ is on the first explanation...but then again- Rafael Palmero- who is two months from retirement- could not resist the juice....maybe in his case- his is just an addict and can't control himself.

Boy- were is Jose Canseco with his big "I TOLD YOU SO" when you need him?

Posted by: philly phil at August 2, 2005 11:23 AM

If anyone think Rafael Palmeiro decied to use the stuff this year just to go out with a bang, please go stand in traffic. His stats are out of whack for his whole career, and nobody, I mean nobody risks what he risked this close to the end. He took what he did (which is reported to be an anabolic steroid 'ala Ben Johnson) because that's what he's always done. He was probably pretty sure that after his academy award presentaion for the Senate, tight ties with the moron who runs this country, and his "everyone loves Raffy" attitude, he'd be all set for his last year. Man do I feel dumb for falling for it when it comes to Raffy.

Posted by: Brad at August 3, 2005 06:46 AM

If, in fact, Raffy intentionally took steroids, I'd start to wonder about the addictive qualities of the drug. Like most people, I don't know jack about steroids, but for Palmeiro to do this intentionally is so incredibly stupid and brazen it's almost beyond comprehension. I'm aware that there are sociopaths in the world and people who do stupid shit all the time, but, could addiction explain why he would do them again? Anyone know about steroids that could inform me on the subject?

Posted by: Nick at August 3, 2005 04:21 PM