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June 24, 2005

Looking At The Yankees Losses

Just looking at the 35 Yankees losses to date this season:

In 6 of the 35, the Yankees scored 5+ runs.
In 10 of the 35, the Yankees scored 4+ runs.
In 19 of the 35, the Yankees scored 3+ runs.
In 16 of the 35, the Yankees have scored 2 runs or less.

In 12 of the 35 losses, the Yankees have allowed 5 runs or less.
In 5 of the 35 losses, the Yankees have allowed 4 runs or less.
In 4 of the 35 losses, the Yankees have allowed 3 runs or less.

Let us assume that the Yankees should have won those 6 games where they scored 5+ runs and also should have won those 4 games where they allowed 3 runs or less. That would make the Yankees record to date 47-25 instead of the actual 37-35. (That 47-25 sure looks like what most of us expected them to have at this point in the season!)

What were the scores of these 10 losses? Here's the list:

Lost to the Angels 3-1
Lost to Kansas City 3-1
Lost to Milwaukee 2-1
Lost to Toronto 2-0

Lost to Tampa Bay 11-8 
Lost to Toronto 8-6
Lost to Baltimore 7-6
Lost to Seattle 7-6
Lost to Baltimore 12-5
Lost to Boston 8-5 

The games that stand out the most to me here are:

Lost to Kansas City 3-1
Lost to Milwaukee 2-1
Lost to Tampa Bay 11-8
Lost to Toronto 8-6
Lost to Baltimore 7-6
Lost to Seattle 7-6
Lost to Boston 8-5

The Toronto 2-0 loss was a good game by Halladay, the Angels are a great team and the 12-5 loss to the O's was a game where Wright was pitching BP (and I was there). This is why I can give a pass on these three.

The 3-1 loss to KC was a game where the Unit pitched well but the team just did not show up to play - and Torre ripped them for it.

The 2-1 loss to the Brewers was a game where Pavano pitched well, but the bats were flat. (The Yankees got only 4 hits that night.)

The 11-8 loss to Tampa Bay was the game where Henn made his first start. Not much you can do there.

The 8-6 loss to the Blue Jays was a game where Pavano got pounded and Stanton did a bad job out of the pen.

The 7-6 loss to the O's was a game were Sturtze and Gordon blew the game - allowing 5 runs in the 7th.

The 7-6 loss to Seattle was one of the ugly ones of the season to date - Sturtze, Gordon, Posada, Womack and Giambi should all have bad memories from that one.

The 8-5 loss to the Bosox was the game where the fan took a swipe at Sheffield. The game was tied, 5-5, and then Gordon got banged around for 3 runs in the 8th to blow it.

OK, so, knowing all this, maybe we should throw out these games:

Lost to Kansas City 3-1
Lost to Milwaukee 2-1
Lost to Tampa Bay 11-8

And, just look at these:

Lost to Toronto 8-6
Lost to Baltimore 7-6
Lost to Seattle 7-6
Lost to Boston 8-5

When you look at these four games, the thing that pops out the most is "Tom Gordon."

Now, this is not meant to rip Tom Gordon - because he also, to date, has helped towards 14 of the Yankees 37 wins.

But, what it does tell me is that the Yankees problem this year, so far, has been the bullpen. All four of these games were losses because of the pen:

Lost to Toronto 8-6
Lost to Baltimore 7-6
Lost to Seattle 7-6
Lost to Boston 8-5

If you take those games and make them wins, then the Yankees are 41-31, instead of 37-35, and then they would be just 1 game out of 1st at this moment.

So, if the Yankees are looking for help on the trade-front, maybe they should focus on getting some pen help and replace guys like Quantrill and Stanton who are just taking up space?

Posted by Steve Lombardi at June 24, 2005 09:20 AM

Comments

interesting.....and still we are 5 GB

Posted by: phil at June 24, 2005 10:18 AM

I'd suggest doing the same thing for the Red Sox and Orioles this year before drawing any conclusions

Posted by: Wahoo Sam at June 24, 2005 10:19 AM

Hey, I can only worry about *my* team! ;-)

Phil, four times in the last 10 years, the Yankees won the AL East by less than 5 games. Five games is a big lead. Plus, it's 5 games and *two teams* ahead of them.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi at June 24, 2005 12:13 PM

I agree on the pen. Q and Stanton really aren't doing much. Our trading should focus on CF and the pen.

Posted by: Patrick at June 24, 2005 12:24 PM

I think a more telling stat is that the Yankees are 0-25 when scoring 3 or fewer runs. That tells me that the starters aren't winning games when both pitchers are "on." A mere 5-20 in those situations and the Yankees are at least tied for first.

Posted by: rbj at June 24, 2005 12:45 PM

I'll have to look at that!

Posted by: Steve Lombardi at June 24, 2005 12:52 PM

my point regarding the 5 GB

this is not insurmountable- as embarrassing, inconsistent, heartless, spiritless and souless they have been.....we are not even close to being out of it in the standings.

So I disagree...we have 90 games left...we could win and make it 4 GB after tonight

so- what is the "cut-off" of where a big lead becomes a small lead? 4, 3, 2.5?

16.5 in June is a big lead...9.5 in August is a big lead

5 GB before the All-Star break is a drop in the bucket....of course IMHO.

And if you believe that the Orioles will fade away into mediocreville- then we are only 4.5 GB back of the Red Sox....so that's actually better.

Posted by: phil at June 24, 2005 12:57 PM

I do believe the Birds will wane in the late season, but I also think that the Sox have too many weapons and still have the
Spirit and talent-base from last season. It's not how many games ahead/behind you are, but who is ahead/behind you. sorry, I'm from RS Nation...

Posted by: George at June 24, 2005 02:59 PM

We need to get Danys Baez.He will pitch the 7th and the 8th.Shorten the game for the starters.The end game is key.Gordon is bad karma.

Posted by: john s at June 24, 2005 03:13 PM

"....and still have the Spirit"

yes- key word there.

We have no spirit- we have people who could bring spirit to the team- but I think the organization is too rigid and white collar to allow it.

When Giambi was on Oakland- I thought he was the coolest player in the league. Now, Giambi is a shell of the man he was on Oakland... cut the hair, shave, turn off the music. Nothing close to the "tough guy" he appeared to be on Oakland.

Come to think of it- Randy Johnson had to cut his hair and shave as well.

So did Chuck Knoblauch......all he did was hit .320 every year before he met Mr. Norelco...

hmmmm........Steve- I think you may need to look into the "Curse of the Clean Cut Image"

Posted by: 5 GB at June 24, 2005 03:27 PM

I don't know about that. Yanks grooming rules have been in effect for as long as I can remember, save for a couple of months in '95

Posted by: Raf at June 24, 2005 03:31 PM

Not exactly meaningful to look at all of the "bad" luck games, while ignoring all of the games where such "bad" luck happened to the Yanks' opponents.

You are dead on that Gordon is part of the problem. It seems that his peformance in tight situations is abysmal(not just his well-established postseason issues, but his perfromance in a "must win" situation like last night). Given the crappy performances of Stanton and Quantrill and the mean reversion of WOTS, the Yanks aren't one RP away from solving that problem. Of course, the Sox bullpen has been crappy as well, but Foulke and Embree have begun to turn things around (the good kind of mean reversion).

Also, the Angels are not a "great team." They are an above average team that won a WS a few years ago, nothing more.

Posted by: Sox Fan at June 24, 2005 03:46 PM

I would disagree with the Angels. They were in the playoffs last year and look to return this year. The team has some talent.

Posted by: Steve Lombardi at June 24, 2005 03:51 PM

I am a big Yanks fan. They suck right now! AQfter tuesday,s win I thought they would ten in a row and go on to the playoffs. But they lose two more to Tampa Bay and look terrible. I have faith in Buddy Groom and Tom Gordon but who else? What's wrong with Billy Kotch? The Blue Jays let him go and know one picks him up. We all knoe the Yanks will make a trade for pitching or outfield help. I just wish they could get rid of Giambi and Brown.

Posted by: Tom at June 24, 2005 04:45 PM

Torre won't use anyone but Rivera, Gordon, and Sturtze in close games so why even shuffle Stanton or Quantrill out of the pen and put other guys in there that will just rust away. If they do, they should try Proctor (who is up now), Bean (who saw some time this year), etc. instead of trading for someone that Torre won't put his confidence in.

Posted by: Brian at June 27, 2005 02:46 PM