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June 01, 2005
Almost One-Third Done
There are 162 games in a major league baseball season. Therefore, the season can be broken down into three 54 game snapshots.
The Yankees have now played 51 games (as of this writing). New York has basically played one-third of the 2005 season.
The Yankees record to date is 27 wins and 24 losses. At this rate, they are on pace for a 86-win season. This is not exactly what Big Stein thought he was getting for $200 million.
For the Yankees to win 100 games this season, they would have to play .658 ball the rest of the season - roughly winning 2 out of every 3 games for the rest of the year.
For the Yankees to win 95 games this season, they would have to play .613 ball the rest of the season - roughly winning 3 out of every 5 games for the rest of the year.
For the Yankees to win 90 games this season, they would have to play .568 ball the rest of the season - roughly winning 4 out of every 7 games for the rest of the year.
At this junction, it's starting to look like the Yankees will win between 85 and 95 games this year. Can anyone say Wildcard? (Assuming that it does not come from the Central or West.)
YES announcer Jim Kaat likes to talk about breaking a baseball season into thirds and using the 1st one to see what you need, the 2nd one to make the fixes, and the last one to make a run.
I wonder if the Yankees are thinking about those fixes right now? It's time.
Posted by Steve Lombardi at June 1, 2005 10:20 AM
Comments
OK- Steve- if you are the Big Stein- what is your first move?
how about we trade all of our first basemen- Tino, Giambi, Russ Johnson and Andy Phillips for Todd Helton.
Another positive from last night- Brown. Yeah he gave up some runs, not all earned- but he was absolutely throwing GAS the whole game....he is starting to shape up.
Posted by: Phil at June 1, 2005 11:47 AM
FWIW, they were projected to win 89 games last year.
Posted by: Raf at June 1, 2005 12:16 PM
Agreed Phil, but there's also the potential that Brown will lose that game of ping pong to his opponent during that "Kids on Deck" episode on YES, then flip out that he lost to a kid: He then tries to swallow a pp paddle whole, and then jumps out of a second story window thus sending him to the DL for 1 month.
Posted by: Jason O. at June 1, 2005 12:34 PM
Raf - projected by who?
Phil - glad you asked. Let me think about that.
And, I agree too that Brown looked better than his numbers last night.
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at June 1, 2005 12:49 PM
Projected by Pythagoreas :D.
Pythagorean Winning Percentage (Bill James gets the credit, IIRC) is (runs scored^2)/((runs scored^2)+(runs allowed^2))
Some places, the exponent's 2, but over @ Baseball-reference, they use 1.83. Looking @ the projected vs actual numbers @ baseball-reference, I'd say 1.83 is pretty darn close
Posted by: Raf at June 1, 2005 01:19 PM
Ah, but, could be argue that they have under-performed and that has impacted the PW% - thus, the basis for the need of the fixes?
Posted by: Steve Lombardi at June 1, 2005 01:39 PM
Imagine if our staff pitched like we expected them to when we got them? I'm not even saying in their prime. What if KB and RJ and Wright were pitching like they were the year before they came to the Yankees? That'd be unreal...which I guess is why it isn't happening.
Posted by: JJay at June 1, 2005 03:46 PM
"Ah, but, could be argue that they have under-performed and that has impacted the PW% - thus, the basis for the need of the fixes?"
Good question. I suspect the answer could be found if you broke it down according to thirds.
I want to mention again that the 89 win season was supposed to be last season. Based on numbers so far, the Yanks works out to 27-28 wins, and the O's work out to 30-31 wins, based on the scored/allowed differential.
Will they finish that way? Maybe, maybe not, but I wouldn't mind seeing what the deal is.
Looking at Lee's stat package, the Yanks better get their pitching in order, if they want to do anything. When 2 of your starters (Brown, Pavano) have negative RSAA, and two others have 1 & 0 (RJ & Wang) RSAA, you're not going to win much, unless your offense bails you out most of the time
Posted by: Raf at June 1, 2005 04:55 PM